The world significance of the Ukrainian incident and its warning to China!

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Russia’s special military action against Ukraine has caused an uproar in world public opinion and has had a far-reaching impact on the global political and economic pattern. This article is a speech delivered by Professor zhangwenmu at the conference on “China thinking about the Ukrainian crisis”. The summary is as follows.

The Ukrainian incident means that a new regional system has been finalized. What system is this? I call it the “new Versailles system”.

In history, there was a Vienna system, dominated by British Russian cooperation. At that time, Russia basically controlled Eastern Europe. Needless to say, the three Baltic countries – this is very similar to the situation after the Second World War. In the first World War, the Russian Empire disintegrated.

At that time, it was “the pinch of picking persimmons”, and many countries jointly invaded Russia. Later, the west established the Versailles Washington system that excluded Soviet Russia. In this system, Soviet Russia was suppressed. Eastern Europe once fell to the West as a whole because of dissatisfaction with the excessive squeeze of tsarist Russia – which is very similar to the situation in Eastern Europe today because of dissatisfaction with the Soviet Union.

However, the West did not know that the suppression of moderation did not overwhelm the Soviet Union, but pushed out a Soviet Union and Soviet empire. You know, the Soviet Union was not merged, it was suppressed by the West. The countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which were independent from the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, were dissatisfied with western exploitation and Western centered diplomatic squeeze. After the first World War, they formed Soviets one after another, actively allied with the Soviet Communist Party, and finally established the Soviet Union.

After the Versailles system stabilized, Hitler came out to stir up the situation. This provided an opportunity for the Soviet Union to expand. Stalin followed Lenin’s line and expanded in the crisis: at that time, the neighboring countries were always seeking help from Soviet Russia under the pressure of the west, and the Soviet Russian border expanded in this “cry for help”. This is true in South Ossetia, which was in conflict with Georgia a few years ago, and in Crimea today.


The Independence Square in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, became a ruin after the outbreak of the “square revolution” in 2014.

Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? What’s the problem? It has expanded so much that Eastern Europe has been brought in all at once. There is no problem from the Soviet border to Ukraine. Hitler did not take this place in those days, nor can NATO take this place today.

Hitler’s defeat coincided with the establishment of the Soviet empire. What is the legal basis for the establishment of this empire? The Yalta system. Originally, the Versailles Washington system was Anglo Saxon cooperation. In the Yalta system, it became the cooperation between the Soviet Union and the United States, that is, Mrs. SLA and some Anglo Saxons. Europe was the victim.

This historical experience tells us that in the game of great powers, even strategic allies, not friends, cannot be won by Chamberlain’s efforts alone.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe suddenly fell back to the west, and Europe returned to the new Versailles system. Like the situation after the defeat of tsarist Russia in the first World War, the West continues to expand eastward today, forcing the Russians to the bottom line that they can no longer yield and must rebound strongly.

Russia without the black sea will not last long. The Ukrainian incident made by the West has indeed pushed Russia to the bottom line of “survival or destruction”. Fortunately, Putin appeared in Russia at this time, and the emergence of Putin is a necessity in Russian history. In times of crisis, every nation will introduce its own mature politicians. With Putin, Russia will have a return to the Soviet Union.

The significance of the Ukrainian crisis to Europe lies in determining the boundary where the new Versailles system can no longer be expanded eastward. Borders are determined by force. The outcome of the Ukrainian incident means that Russia has kept the bottom line. The bottom line is the basis and premise for Russia’s future revival.

The establishment of the new Versailles system means the final disintegration of the Yalta System in Europe.

However, it must be noted that the Yalta system has not disintegrated in the Far East, and its symbol is Taiwan or China; The four northern islands are still in Russian hands; Okinawa and Guam are still under the control of the United States. Who is the enemy of the Yalta System in the Far East? It’s Japan.

There are contradictions between China and the United States, but they are fundamental contradictions with Japan. The legal status of Taiwan belonging to China was established by Yalta system. If the Yalta System in the Far East really “disintegrates” as some people say, the legal status of Taiwan today, and even the legal status of the United States and Russia on some islands in the Pacific, will be “shaken” in favor of the Japanese right wing.

When the Versailles system was formed in the early 20th century, there was also a Washington System in the Far East, which was called the “Versailles Washington System” at that time.

Now that the new Versailles system has been established, the United States has also begun to “move its strategy eastward”. What are you doing here? It wants to establish another “Washington System” in the Far East. The boundary of the new Versailles system in Europe has been determined in the Ukrainian incident, while the attempt to establish the Far East “Washington System” has just begun, and its success or failure is still uncertain——

It may be the Washington system or the Chinese system. It depends on whether the Chinese persist in the struggle and whether the game between China and the United States has a philosophy.


The west established the Versailles Washington system that excluded Soviet Russia.

In today’s Versailles system, Russia has lost Eastern Europe – this is also the result of the excessive squeeze of the Soviet Union. The power of Western Europe has expanded to Eastern Europe again, forcing Russia to the bottom line of survival. At this time, the Russians did not believe in any “soft power” and directly used tanks to solve the problem.

I have noticed that after Russian tanks were stationed in Crimea, the so-called “Democrats” in Hong Kong also stopped a lot. They have really seen what is called “critical weapons cannot replace weapons’ criticism”; At this time, they may also understand that history cannot be overturned by lip service.

In recent years, some people, including those in China, really think that talking can change the world. Today’s Ukrainian President is the victim of these theories. He plays the so-called “constitutionalism” with the opposition, thinking that the law can solve the problem, and finally plays himself into the gutter. When the Russian tanks drove in, the Ukrainian “nvxia” who came out of prison did not say a word. She saw that politics is bloody.

Scholars should not make empty comments. There are blood spots on the head. Empty talk is no good. Mao Zedong said: “in class struggle, some classes have won and some classes have been wiped out. This is history, and this is the history of civilization for thousands of years. Those who interpret history from this point of view are called historical materialism. Standing on the opposite side of this view is historical idealism.”

Putin has effectively defended the immovable borders of Europe this time. I believe that the eastward expansion will basically come to this point in the foreseeable time. The reason is that as long as there is enough will, it is more than enough to hold this bottom line in terms of Russia’s resources. From Peter the great to Stalin, Russia has never failed in Ukraine.

From the successful experience of dealing with Napoleon to Hitler, Westerners understand that where the army can play a role, the Russians often win completely. The Black Sea is too close to Russia, and the land is connected, so the army can be stationed directly; But the Western sea power countries can’t work hard here.

Crimea and Ukraine are the line of life and death for Russia, and the line of important interests for Europe. For this reason, Russia will use all its resources, but the West will not. No matter how the Ukrainian incident evolves, the result will be determined.

Now Putin is blocking NATO’s eastward expansion in the West. What shall we do? Where is our boundary? We have to resist. If we don’t, the West will advance by an inch. Many people now believe in soft power. In fact, the limit of using soft power is not to have or give up hard power. Many people pretend that history is created from the best of both worlds. It seems that when the economy develops, everything will be fine. Khrushchev and later Gorbachev were such people.

Mao Zedong said that Khrushchev was very naive. In 1959, he wrote in an outline of his speech on the international situation: “he did not understand Marxism Leninism and was easily deceived by imperialism. He did not understand that China reached the extreme and did not study it. He believed in a large number of incorrect information and talked freely. If he did not correct it, he would be completely bankrupt in a few years.” In 1964, Khrushchev stepped down.

The United States has obviously lost points in the Sino US game. In recent years, the United States has made a major mistake in pushing China to Russia. Hillary Clinton’s skills are similar to Abe’s. she only knows how to shout, but has no strategy. George W. Bush also has no strategy. The more mature politicians are Kissinger and Powell.

Where is America’s real failure? It is not how much economic benefits it has made from China – that is a small account, but that it has deceived people too much and thus pushed China to Russia – this is a big account. Without the stability of the Sino Russian border, Russia’s success in Crimea this time would be unimaginable. In history, once China and Russia join hands, the United States will undoubtedly lose; vice versa.

What is the economic warning of Ukraine? Judging from the political changes in Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Thailand and Ukraine, the economy is also a continuation of politics.

In fact, economic “fat people” cannot fight. With the development of economy, if there is no military capability, it can only show that you are “fat”. Before the Pacific War, the trade volume between Japan and the United States was much higher than that of China. Finally, they fought; At that time, we didn’t have much trade with the United States. Instead, we became friends. Trade is also a continuation of politics, always.

The same goes for mahjong tables. It is politically unthinkable for a weak country to win all. With the changes in Libya and Sudan, our people have withdrawn. It is difficult to recover the lost market there. You say that the Chinese people are smart and smart, but they can’t do it with their fists. There is no business without fist in history. Business is finally decided by the fist.

Chinese people can’t go too far in business. Only where you can really control can you have a sustainable profitable market. In Ukraine, then Iraq, Libya and other regions, if we do not have an effective voice, we have to say otherwise about the signed contracts. Trade is politically constrained.

So I think that China’s optimistic “Grand Slam” world trade will be reversed. In the past, we thought that high quality and low price would win the world, but that was not the case; How can making money be a purely economic act? Politics must follow. Economic interests are used to balance out political interests. Yesterday’s Libya and Sudan are the same as today’s Thailand and Ukraine. Their trade is politically inclined.

Our truly sustainable market in the future is in Asia. Some people advocate the internationalization of RMB, but I don’t agree. Because the internationalization of RMB will also internationalize and internationalize China’s responsibility, China can not afford that responsibility. Regionalization of the RMB is feasible, and we can only discuss it where we can reach.

Stressing politics is a hidden rule of the world economy, and we must take this into account. War is the continuation of politics, and trade is also the continuation of politics. The West tried to restrict China in the WTO, forcing us to comply, but failed; In the future, people may have to be tough. We should not believe that the market is omnipotent. It seems that as long as the economy develops and there is profit in world trade, everything can be settled. Profits are protected by strength, and the growth of profits is limited where the strength is insufficient.

The sun rises in the East and rains in the West. Tao is sentimental but ruthless. The western boundary of the world has been stable, and it is difficult to say what the pattern will be on our side.

Now China needs to fight for a Chinese system between the new Versailles system in Europe and the possible Washington System in the Far East.

Some people say, don’t fight with the United States. The United States is the boss. Whoever fights with it will have no good results. That’s not true. The United States fought with Britain, the eldest of its time. In 1812, Britain went to the United States’ home, but the Americans simply defeated it; Then the United States won the world power status through two world wars. Stalin also chose war from Europe.

Boys who haven’t had a fight can’t get along with adults when they grow up.

The same is true of national growth: there is no precedent in the world for a big country to be recognized without a challenge, especially the challenge of war.

Whether China can win the future world is indeed a matter that must be taken seriously.

China must have a degree of security if it wants to rise and reach a well-off scale. Over expansion is not safe; It is not safe to have no minimum space for yourself. This is the sphere of influence. For a long time, the sphere of influence of the Chinese Empire has been in East Asia. Its focus is in East Asia and covers Asia. No matter how far away it is, it cannot move.

Mao Zedong designed us not to seek hegemony. Deng Xiaoping designed us a well-off country. A well-off society is actually a moderately developed country. It is not Comrade Xiaoping’s modesty to put forward this concept, but his wisdom. All big countries that can achieve sustainable development are conservative, and excessive expansion is bound to fail. China should not follow that path. We may succeed if we stick to the Asian region.

The decline of the United States today is that it is overdrawn. Mao Zedong saw this earlier. On march4,1959, When meeting with Jackson, Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of America, he said: “U.S. imperialism seems to be very strong. In fact, it is also the strongest among imperialists, but it is also very weak. Its forces are thinly dispersed. It wants to garrison troops in Europe and in Asia. It is so dispersed that it can be found everywhere. As a result, it is useless everywhere. The United States is expanding very much in terms of military, political and economic aspects. The more it expands, the more its forces are dispersed, and the more people it opposes. In this way, things will become worse Will go against its will. “

The problems that Mao Zedong saw should also be taken seriously and taken as a warning for China, which is moving towards the center of the world today.

Finally, I would like to review with you the poem “niannujiao Kunlun” written by Mao Zedong in 1935: “now I call Kunlun: don’t be so tall, don’t be so snowy. An’de leans on the sky to draw a sword, and cut you into three parts? One part is left to Europe, one part is given to the United States, and the other part is returned to the East. The world is as cool and hot as it is in the peaceful world.”

We don’t want to compete for the United States or Europe. We just need to find Asia, especially East Asia. This is one of our future goals.

The external environment in East Asia is now conducive to our approach to this goal, but this is also a time when the west is trying to achieve its goal. If China can withstand it today, our future history will be glorious and our life will be very proud.

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