Source: a bad potato (id:iamhtd)
Life is hard all over the world now.
Not only is life difficult, Europe can not afford to eat because of soaring prices and the aggravation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris called on everyone to eat less and lose weight more on June 13.
As for the United States, prices in the United States have reached an all-time high, and CPI cannot be lowered no matter how we do it.
In order to alleviate the situation, the Federal Reserve has adopted a continuous overnight reverse repurchase, that is, it uses bonds as collateral every day, finds short-term loans from financial institutions, recovers US dollars and puts them into the reservoir to stabilize prices.
The annual interest rate of reverse repo is only 0.8%, and the US Federal benchmark interest rate is 0.05% higher. However, in order to get more annual interest of 0.05%, US banks and financial institutions have poured more than $2trillion into the Federal Reserve.
Lending us $10000 to the Federal Reserve for one year can earn US $80 in interest, but US financial institutions are still willing to adopt this method.
$2trillion, one year to the Federal Reserve, the return is $1.6 billion. The reverse repurchase the next day, one day operation, that is, $4.38 million The return of this business is pitifully low, but everyone is willing to do it!
This actually shows that there is nothing worth investing in. It is better to go to the Federal Reserve for interest.
As a matter of fact, this is the core problem of the current weak economy. No new economic growth point can be found.
The dividends of the information technology revolution have come to an end. In recent years, no new technological breakthrough has been found.
Not only that, the development of technology has largely eliminated the employment rate.
For example, Tesla unmanned factory, from raw material processing to finished product assembly, all production processes are completed by 150 robots, and there is no human figure in the workshop.
The recent development of technology is to improve efficiency and reduce labor
The robots are controlled by computers and operate according to the set procedures. The robots and robots operate in a streamlined manner to achieve seamless connection.
Therefore, on the one hand, there is no demand brought about by the breakthrough of new technology, and consumption shrinks. On the other hand, there is the improvement of production efficiency, which kills the employment rate, and makes consumption shrink even more. As a result, enterprises lay off workers, and consumption shrinks even more, making the vicious circle worse
Why does stagnant technology affect consumption? Just like the rise of mobile Internet in 2010, smart phones replaced functional phones, and global users almost needed one. This demand is so strong that the whole supply chain and manufacturing boomed. There are a lot of capital investment plans, and countless emerging enterprises emerged at the historic moment;
After the hardware is finished, the software is applied. The software revolution has brought a number of model innovations and software enterprises springing up.
So investment, employment rate and consumption began to operate in an all-round and benign way.
However, 10 years have passed, and today, there is no revolutionary breakthrough, but the improvement of technology. At most, the faster the computing speed and the better the camera effect can not stimulate people’s consumption desire.
Even if 13million cameras are upgraded to 130million cameras, what will happen? The marginal attraction to people is getting lower and lower;
In 2017, the global shipment of smart phones was 1.511 billion;
In 2020, 1.306 billion units will be shipped;
In 2021, 1.12 billion units will be shipped;
Less and less every year!
According to the forecast in recent months, it should fall below 1billion in 2022;
Compared with 2017, it decreased by more than 33%;
The shrinking sales of mobile phones will also affect the shrinking of tens of thousands of supply chains, and the decline in the number of production will lead to layoffs or reduced recruitment demand;
Mobile phone companies will lay off workers, and the supply chain will also lay off workers;
The laid-off people can’t find jobs, and their demand shrinks further;
There is no revolutionary breakthrough in mobile phone technology. What is revolutionary is that everyone from Nokia to Apple wants to change.
But now it is a benign technological change. At most, the speed is faster and the screen is clearer, which can not attract people’s consumption desire. 3D and metauniverse are just concepts, and they have not taken shape at all;
As a result, investment institutions can not find new growth points and the direction of new technologies, so they do not invest, new enterprises will not appear, and the employment rate will further decline
Mobile phones are just one of the points. Compared with 20 years ago, our life today has been completely changed, but the development direction in the next 20 years has not been found yet
There is no clear direction of change in all walks of life;
In order to stimulate the economy, especially in the past 20 years, countries around the world have been overdrawing, printing money and issuing bonds. Today, it has caused sustained inflation and the foam is on the verge of bursting.
Therefore, the global environment is now characterized by technological stagnation. In addition:
In the United States, a large amount of dollar idling has caused massive inflation, and there is no new technological growth point;
Europe has been borrowing at zero rate for a long time, and now it has been affected by the Russian Ukrainian war and reaped by the United States;
China is the end of the bonus era of real estate, the pulling effect is weakened, and there are side effects. At the same time, the bonus effect of mobile Internet is also beginning to become weak;
As for Southeast Asia, Southeast Asia is a little better, because the US trade war against China has enabled Chinese products to be exported to Southeast Asia and put up a brand, which is equivalent to sharing a little soup But this soup is very, very little, that is, a little juice. I will say later.
When the United States looked at the report, it was shocked that in 2022, the global economic growth in Russia would exceed expectations!
However, Russia is not enviable, because it is a large oil barrel. In the past 20 years, as long as the oil price rises, Russia’s GDP will rise, and as long as the oil price falls, Russia will decline;
On the contrary, Russia is not affected by the technological recession, because there are no emerging technologies in Russia
Therefore, the future of the world will not be easy. If the five nuclear bombs did not always restrict each other, the flames of war would have been out of control. It is definitely not just in Ukraine.
What will happen in the future?
A global recession is inevitable
At present, from a global perspective, China is the best in the world despite its many problems.
In the first five months of this year, the total value of China’s foreign trade import and export was 16.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year.
Among them, the export was 8.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year on year; Imports reached 7.1 trillion yuan, up 4.7% year on year.
Now investment and consumption are shrinking, while exports are growing substantially.
The coexistence faction thinks that the anti epidemic will affect the economy, and this data directly swells their faces.
China’s fight against the epidemic has completely defeated the rest of the world.
Moreover, the world is almost in deficit. China’s trade surplus in May 2022 was US $78.76 billion, an increase of 82.3% year-on-year.
American and western groups are running deficits and losing money;
What about other countries?
Vietnam is crying out loudly, but in May 2022, the trade deficit in a single month was $1.73 billion. A large number of imports and exports finally earned a lonely life, which slightly solved the employment rate.
Japan’s trade data in May has not been released. In April 2022, the trade deficit was 839.2 billion yen, about 6.3 billion US dollars. It has been nine consecutive months of trade deficit. In addition, the recent Japanese debt is on the verge of collapse!
South Korea’s trade deficit in the first 20 days of May 2022 was US $4.83 billion;
Therefore, there is no problem with exports. The global economy is in recession. This data clearly shows that everyone is having a hard time. We are still the best.
The problem is investment and consumption.
For us, there are three ways.
The first is to seize the fourth technological revolution. This is a competition between China and the United States. No country other than China and the United States is likely to emerge.
No matter which country in China or the United States, the country that not only promotes global economic development, but also produces technological revolution has been prosperous for at least 50 years. However, at present, it is still far away, because the current technology is only improved, not breakthrough.
The second is to break through the monopoly of American and western groups in the fields of chips, industrial mother machines, large aircraft, high-end engines, etc. any breakthrough in any of the above technologies will bring at least one million high-end jobs and tens of millions of derivative employment rates;
In fact, the reason why it is difficult for college students to find jobs is that we do not have so many high-end industries to match.
However, this one will also be difficult. It is all in the low-level technology field, which is characterized by large investment, long time-consuming and high difficulty. In addition, the United States and western groups surround and intercept, because if these technologies are broken through, there will be few developed countries in the world except China in the future.
Of course, there is another technical point, that is, in the field of new energy. China has been deeply cultivated and deployed in the field of new energy for 20 years. Its technological leadership is unmatched in the world. With the arrival of the new energy era, it is bound to become a new energy center leading the world in 5 to 10 years.
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The first and second of the above are both time-consuming, so the third way is common prosperity.
In the past 30 years, we have developed too fast. First, the transfer of low-end industries of American western group and our breakthrough, then the real estate dividend, plus the tail of the third technological revolution, especially the mobile Internet dividend, we have grasped it. However, in the next 10 years, no one has seen a clear direction.
At least, in the context of global economic recession, it is difficult for us to maintain the high-speed growth in the past 30 years.
If in the first 30 years, we first ensured efficiency and then fairness, then in the future, we may need to ensure fairness first.
In fact, many people, especially the so-called elite class, often have a misunderstanding about common prosperity. They think that common prosperity is a moral problem. In fact, common prosperity is fundamentally an economic problem.
It is a road that must be taken.
Only common prosperity can save the development of capital.
The 1933 Roosevelt New Deal can be said to be the embryonic form of national common prosperity. It reduced working hours, guaranteed workers’ welfare, provided jobs, increased capital taxes, and was more used for public facilities
Do you think Roosevelt did this for the working class?
Yes or no, because if they don’t do this, the workers will have no income. How can they buy the products produced by the capitalists?
That is, on this basis, before the implementation of Reagan economics, the United States cultivated a huge middle class and produced decades of great prosperity.
After World War II, due to the serious consequences of the Great Depression of capital, Europe in fact promoted a high welfare society in an all-round way. In the past 30 years, although Europe has been declining, high welfare at least ensured the stability and relative prosperity of Europe.
After Reagan, why didn’t the United States pursue the “American version of common prosperity”? Because the US dollar has unbound gold, the hegemony of the US dollar plundering the world has officially taken shape. Even if the United States has no industry, it can harvest the world by relying on powerful military and finance. The United States does not need to help the poor. Even if the bottom is starved to death, as long as the violence machine is still there and the NGOs are still there, the United States can operate as usual.
In fact, among the developed countries in the world, almost only the United States is a low welfare country.
Recently, I saw a news that 90% of young people, especially after 00, expressed their willingness to work overtime.
Well, yes, I’d like to work overtime, too.
Because between unemployment and 996, of course I am willing to choose to work overtime
But at this time, we are also encouraged to work overtime, to work for two people, and to eliminate the employment rate. Isn’t it even worse for the economy?
Of course, you can say that Europe today has high welfare because of its huge accumulation of capital and technology, so it can engage in
In fact, the United States began to provide workers’ welfare in 1933 when the economy was very depressed, and Europe began to provide high welfare under the premise that it was in ruins after World War II
Do you think rosforchurchill and Charles de Gaulle are that stupid?
With the employment rate, there will be consumption and the foundation of the economy.
2022 is the best node for building common prosperity and a harmonious society.