Author: vertical and horizontal source: Zhonghua city (id:hqsycn)
First of all, we need to understand two questions: Why did World War I and World War II fight? Why can’t the third world war be fought?
Generally, we think that World War I and World War II are anti fascist wars, but that’s just what textbooks tell you. The real reason for World War I and World War II is the imperialist war for colonies caused by the great crisis of overproduction. There is no justice or injustice in itself. However, since Germany, Japan and other countries carried out indiscriminate attacks on civilians (massacre of civilians), in order to occupy the moral commanding height and enjoy the fruits of victory after World War II, the Allied forces defined it as the “world anti fascist war”.
In other words, the real reason for World War I and World War II was that countries were fighting for colonies and solving their own great crisis of overproduction.
Why didn’t the three wars start?
One obvious reason is that the major powers have established a balance of nuclear terrorism, as we all know.
Another hidden reason is that industrial capital globalization and financial capital have no national boundaries.
When the world came to modern times, there appeared a socialist camp, such as the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. No matter what the actual situation is, at least on the surface, people’s illness, education, old-age care, etc. are managed by people, and their welfare is better than that of the West.
As a result, protests and demonstrations continued to occur in the west, demanding the improvement of welfare, leading to the continuous increase of production costs, and finally the outward transfer of industries.
Industrial capital can be continuously transferred to the place with the lowest production cost in the world. In addition, globalization enables its products to pursue global profits without barriers;
In addition, countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom have entered the financial capital. The financial capital has no motherland and no national boundaries, and can obtain the profits it pursues in the world.
It can be seen from the above explanation that both industrial capital and financial capital can achieve global profit, so there is no need to “seize the territory”, which is also an important reason why the three wars have not happened.
However, time has come. Protectionism represented by “American priority” is rising, the trend of anti globalization is emerging, the United States is trying to divide camps, and the signs of the new cold war are emerging… This may lead to a problem. The global pursuit of profits by industrial capital and financial capital will be greatly restricted, or even ended, resulting in their need to “seize territory” and eventually trigger more conflicts.
A typical example is the current Russian Ukrainian war.
When the United States tried to block Russia and NATO expanded eastward to Ukraine, it directly stimulated Russia’s war response. The Russian Ukrainian war is not only a geopolitical contest between the United States and Russia, but also an invisible “currency strategy” behind it.
? video screenshot of Russian weapons
Therefore, when established countries continue to compress or even try to block the “territory” of emerging countries, conflicts between them will also increase. In fact, this is somewhat similar to the “territory grabbing” in World War I and World War II. At that time, emerging countries such as Germany and Japan were becoming stronger and stronger, requiring the old countries to re divide their spheres of influence and territory. Of course, the old countries quit, so they decided the result through military competition.
On the other hand, when globalization and world peace are conducive to the development of emerging countries and not conducive to the success of established countries such as the United States, it also has the need to reverse globalization and create turbulence. Just as the world was hot during World War I and World War II, the United States was not devastated and finally reaped great profits. In other words, it is beneficial for the United States to create world turbulence. During the Russian Ukrainian war, the United States restarted the “lease act” after 81 years. With a big hand, it issued $40billion in military aid. It wanted to supply European arms indefinitely with the production capacity of the United States and make Europe unstable.
Therefore, if all regions in the world continue to move towards “painting the ground as a prison”, industrial capital and financial capital will have the demand of “grabbing territory” again; There is a contradiction between the old brand countries and the emerging countries in terms of blocking and anti blocking; The United States has a need to “seek chaos”… There may be more and more conflicts in the world in the future.
Due to the existence of the balance of nuclear terrorism, great powers may not compete directly, and world wars may not necessarily occur. It may be transformed into “proxy wars” and other new forms, that is, great powers compete through “proxy” and ultimately win.