Source: Dashu Township Head (ID: dashuxiangzhang)
Asking for directions is a very classic way of doing things in social life.
Walking on the road at night, there are ditches, water or flat ground in front of me, and nobody can be sure; After stepping on water and falling all over mud, it will be too late, so we should throw stones first to see the situation.
Life is not a video game. There is no strategy to refer to. There is no cheating code to eliminate the fog of war. Some people just make adjustments while planning. More often, they have to cross the river by feeling the stones.
Use small cost stones to exchange high value information, which is the role of throwing stones to ask for directions.
But in many cases, it doesn’t matter who threw the stone. Ask what road is important.
Readers and friends may all feel that after the United Nations Conference and the G20, the domestic coverage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began to drop suddenly.
However, this is just our own strategy and arrangement. In fact, thousands of miles away, the intensity of the actual conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not declined, and there are still many remaining problems in the fierce game.
For example, two months ago, on the evening of September 26, two pipelines and three branches of Beixi, Russia’s natural gas pipeline to Europe, were attacked on the same day?
At that time, the world was shocked that the energy problem overlapped with the geographical problem.
Sweden immediately launched an investigation. The cause of the matter was found out quickly, but Sweden was very wise not to disclose the results of the investigation.
It seems that everything has been said, as if nothing has been said.
Now, two months have passed. Who cares about the truth of the Beixi incident? Who cares who the real murderer is? Furthermore, what can we do if we know the real murderer?
Therefore, it is not important who does what, but what effect has been achieved.
Whether it is state terrorism or the audacity of independent groups, this explosion actually tries to reveal many false facts and their own cards:
First, Russia is strong in the outside world but weak in the middle.
Everyone knows that economy and trade are the ballast of China US relations. In fact, there is an important common sense in international politics that energy is the ballast of Russia Europe relations.
From the confrontation between Russia and Europe to the establishment of the Russian European system, Russia and Europe rely on energy cooperation, which is closer than that between Russia and China.
What decision will Putin make if the achievements of Putin’s painstaking efforts to integrate into Europe for many years explode, and the energy economic line on which Russia depends for survival is broken?
Or what retaliation will Russia make?
No, Or you can say that you are powerless.
This is a dangerous move, trying to make Russia stronger than others; In other words, it is not a dangerous chess game at all. It is to show Russia’s external strength and middle strength to the world.
It doesn’t matter. Anyway, all the dukes saw Russia’s weakness.
This also foreshadows subsequent events. Press no table.
The second is the wolf ambition of the United States and the obedience of the European Union.
At the beginning, many people acquiesced that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was just a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and used the land of Ukraine to bleed the hairy bear. But people found that the hairy bear was bleeding, and the EU was also bleeding.
Many European countries announced sanctions against Russia on the surface, but the sanctions against the import of natural gas were put off again and again until the pipeline exploded, which completely broke the EU’s mind.
The ban on using paper is reversible, short-term, and can play politics smart; The holes made with explosives are long-term and irreversible.
The energy crisis is direct, while the industrial crisis is secondary; The reorganization of the energy supply chain will cause long-term high industrial costs, which is fatal to the economy.
At this point, no matter how stupid a politician is, he can see clearly the deep purpose behind the fire of the United States and NATO.
Russia and Europe, which are highly complementary in economic structure, have been forcibly separated, and the EU can do nothing about it. The EU can only follow and not dominate everything.
Europeans thought they were a spectator and might be able to be a diner, but they never thought that they were food materials.
There is only one real diner.
European industries have accelerated their flight, and China has indeed picked up some advantages.
However, most of the escaped European industrial capital has gone to the United States, and the financial capital is all accepted.
This explosion has indeed produced a lot of things.
On November 15, 51 days after the Beixi pipeline was bombed, the explosion started again in Poland.
A missile attacked a village in Poland at the border between Poland and Ukraine, killing two Poles on the spot.
But unlike more than a month ago, the United States and NATO under its leadership are trying to reduce the fire. Biden even immediately said that the missile was unlikely to be launched from Russia after the incident, and the Polish President subsequently recognized the United States statement with a pinched nose and called for calm treatment.
Only the Uzbek side insisted that Russia was responsible, and Zerenski repeatedly denied it.
Just over a month ago, I was stepping on the accelerator, but now I am stepping on the brake?
This, of course, is not the case with the United States.
In the final analysis, they are making money, not working hard.
Russia’s military failure and the inability of Beixi incident enable the United States to assess the current situation well: Russia and Ukraine can maintain a certain balance without more investment.
This balance is the situation that offshore traders are most willing to see, because their own strength can maximize the effect, and a little strengthening or weakening can affect the trend of the situation.
Perhaps both sides of the balance are weighing heavily, but in a balanced situation, only a tiny gram can control the situation, which is the most desirable situation for the United States.
What are the consequences of the missile bombing of Poland?
Poland is a member of NATO. Once the situation escalates, it is necessary to launch NATO’s joint defense obligations, which means that the United States must step down in person.
But is the situation now that Russia is devastated and the United States has to end up in person?
On the contrary.
Russia has lost face. If it is aggressive again, it will be hard to predict what crazy things this nuclear five member state will do.
On the other hand, Europe is also bleeding continuously. All the runners are running. What can we get if we work hard?
This is the self-cultivation of a century old offshore trader.
This kind of economic account is only superficial. The deeper reason is that the diplomacy of big countries always serves the internal affairs, and the military is always the continuation of politics.
At present, the most important and most eye-catching thing in the United States is to raise interest rates, which is the financial tightening.
The Beixi incident occurred when the United States was raising interest rates significantly. The strong war is expected to generate a strong risk aversion motive, which naturally drives the capital flight.
Risk aversion is the thrust, and high interest rate is the attraction. Only through mutual cooperation can the flow of talents and funds be completed.
Before the Polish missile incident, the Federal Reserve had made it clear that it would slow down the pace of interest rate increase. Moreover, at this time, the dust of the mid-term election was settled, and the Democratic Party had no demand for votes, so upgrading the situation would not be beneficial.
Therefore, this is also the previous Beixi incident that tested the weakness of Russia. Because you are weak, I do not have to risk using strong. I can control the pace of my diplomacy according to the domestic rhythm.
Readers may ask me again why the United States is slowing down interest rate hikes at this moment?
This is a big problem, and the length of this article is certainly not enough to explain it. The interest rate increase itself can also give readers a general idea.
The tide harvest of the US dollar seems fierce, but it is not without cost and cannot escape the restriction of economic laws.
To put it simply, raising interest rates in any economy will inhibit investment, thereby inhibiting domestic demand and ultimately reducing domestic economic growth.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for 6 times in a row this year, with 75 basis points of interest rate hikes for 4 times in a row, and 375 basis points of interest rate hikes in total. This is the fastest, largest and most frequent interest rate hike cycle in the United States since 1982.
The US financial tightening will not only reduce the liquidity of the US dollar in the world market, but also reduce the domestic liquidity of the US. Ren Er is the number one economic power in the world. In the short term, the substantial reduction of liquidity will also cause blood loss in the financial market, or even the collapse of financial assets, causing depression and recession.
The interest rate increase is not the eighteen strokes of the dragon, invincible; It’s the Seven Hurt Fist, which can hurt the enemy as well as yourself. However, if you don’t have deep internal power, you will fall down first.
The US stock market has experienced a sharp correction in the past half year, and the US bond yield curve has also experienced the deepest inversion in 40 years. These signals have to make the Federal Reserve cautious.
While the financial cycle is often more than half a year ahead of the economic cycle, the impact of monetary policy on the real economy also has a time lag. The first interest rate increase this year was on March 16, more than seven months before the announcement of slowing interest rate increase, which is also a necessary adjustment and respite.
Therefore, some people “shelled Poland” to escalate the situation. Although they did not succeed, they also tried to resolve to ease the situation in the United States. Financial investors around the world can breathe a sigh of relief, at least slowing interest rate increases is a sure thing.
Talk about so many outsiders throwing stones? Did we throw stones? Did we try anything?
Foreign trade synthetic brigade is our stone.
This is not only about selling weapons, but also about exporting the security system and the determination to build the the Belt and Road.
Saudi Arabia reportedly bought three synthetic brigades. It doesn’t matter how much you buy. This is an echo that the allies of petrodollars have loosened.
The US government said that the Saudi Crown Prince enjoyed immunity in the Kashuji case. It is not important for Saudi Arabia to return. This is an echo. The United States is still shrinking its strength and does not want to blossom more.
In short, Russia and Ukraine are shrinking, and the Middle East is shrinking. The current respite and the easing of all parties ushered in a period of peace in the coming months.
However, it remains to be seen whether this is the calm before the storm, whether we should concentrate our efforts on matters or whether there is a problem in the domestic economy.