Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
The war in Ukraine is still tugging at a saw, and Russia and the West are fighting for consumption in Europe. Western public opinion has been criticizing Russia, saying that it is at the end of its strength.
In order to show its strength, Russia launched the “East 2022” military exercise in the East, with the location selected in the sea of Japan, to tell the Japan US alliance that Russia still has spare power.
The military exercise began on September 1 and lasted for seven days. The total number of troops participating in the exercise exceeded 50000, with 140 aircraft of various types and 60 warships. The scale was actually OK.
According to the original plan of Russia, there are 14 participating countries in total. In addition to Russia, there are 13 countries including China, India, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria and Algeria.
We should know that in the rules of the game of today’s global village, organizing military exercises is like inviting guests to dinner. The number of participants means the size of the circle of friends. Every time the US emperor conducts military exercises, he will pull a lot of friends to make a big show. Under the current situation, it is not easy for Russia to pull out 13 countries to participate in the show.
Take a closer look at the list of 13 countries:
Belarus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the former Soviet Union. Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria and Algeria are Russia’s traditional allies. The navies of these 11 countries can basically be ignored, and participating in the military exercises can be counted as a total.
China and India are really influential. China and India, with a combined population of 2.8 billion, are natural overlords in East and South Asia, and have huge economic potential. With China and India supporting Russia, Russia’s backbone has been straightened a lot.
China gives Russia a lot of face.
However, India dropped the chain at the critical moment. When the military exercise was about to begin, it suddenly announced that it would withdraw from the sea
——This is equivalent to directly pigeoning Russia.
Even funnier, the reason given by India is“
Avoid tension between India and Japan
”? As soon as this remark was made, many old irons in the melon eating world laughed and cried. They thought that the third brother had drunk divine oil as honey. He was clearly a dregs twenty-five child who had all the five poisons of eating, drinking, whoring, gambling and smoking. He just put on a pure face.
You should know that Russia chose to conduct naval exercises in Japan, which was originally aimed at the US Japan alliance. India is not a political White House, and it is impossible not to know Russia’s purpose. India will either not participate at all; Now that we are involved, we should fulfill the relevant agreements.
However, India’s participation and temporary withdrawal feel that it is not to prop up the game, but to smash it. This is nonsense about Putin’s good intentions toward India.
You should know that in the past few years, Russia has been heartfelt towards India. Just give two examples.
For example, in the border conflict between China and India the year before last, Russia sold India advanced equipment without saying a word. You should know that China Russia relations are also very good at this stage.
Example 2: after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Russia sold crude oil to India at a discount, which is equivalent to sending money directly to India.
Then how can India smash Russia’s ground for the so-called “Japan India Relations”?
Reasons: 1. Japanese factors.
India said that it did not want Japan to be unhappy, so there must be a Japanese factor.
Objectively speaking, the relations between Japan and India are not bad either. On the one hand, both Japan and India are unhappy with China. On the other hand, Japan and India also have a high degree of complementarity at the economic level. Of course, India has not cheated Japanese enterprises. This temporary withdrawal from the Russian maritime military exercise is tantamount to selling Japan well and laying the groundwork for continuing to pit Japanese enterprises for money.
But to be honest, Japan is not so important as to let India hit Russia.
Reason 2: US pressure.
The United States now carries out a comprehensive check and balance on China and Russia, and regards India as an object to win over.
When India heard that it would participate in the Russian military exercises, the United States expressed disappointment and opposition.
If India wants to develop its economy at this stage, it must rely on the markets and orders of the United States and Europe. In addition, the Indian elites basically go to the United States and Europe, so at the critical moment, the Indian government absolutely dares not offend the West led by the United States. After this time’s release of the Russian dove, we can ask the United States for more assistance. This is not hard to understand. But I think the most fundamental reason is that India thinks it can manipulate Russia.
Reason 3: Russia.
India’s temporary withdrawal from the maritime military exercises, in addition to being able to sell its good deeds to the United States and Japan, is the most crucial thing that India sees Russia’s helplessness towards India.
After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, in addition to energy, Russia was basically decoupled from the west, and the international situation was more difficult. At this time, the functions of India and Türkiye are highlighted.
Taking Türkiye as an example, Russia Turkey relations are far from good, and there are still many contradictions between the two sides. However, in order to open up more international space, Russia stubbornly lists Türkiye as a “friendly country”, because Russia’s food, resources and energy need to transit through Türkiye to earn more foreign exchange.
For Russia, India is far more important than Türkiye. At the beginning, the Soviet Union set up a layout in India and often poured money. Later, Russia cheated India for a period of time, but since Putin decided to restore the glory of the Russian Empire, he began to spoil India again. Because not only Russia dotes on India, but also the West dotes on India.
As long as India is brought close to itself, it is equivalent to opening a gap in the blockade of the West. The simplest example is that when the West sanctioned Russian oil, India immediately placed an order after Russia discounted it. The United States has also turned a blind eye to this.
You may wonder, is India really so arrogant? It’s not really important whether India has a fork or not. The key is that at this stage (pay attention to this word), we can kick our noses at Russia. Russia pretends not to care.
Seeing that Russia desperately needs itself at this stage, India wantonly demands from Russia. That’s why we have this picture: Despite India’s manipulation of Russia several times, Russia still treats India like first love.
Therefore, it is highly likely that Russia will pretend not to see the joint naval exercise being pigeonholed by India. Later, it will sell India discounted crude oil and so-called high-end weapons. Of course, I’ll come out to hang out and pay it back sooner or later. Russia is also a country with a grudge. After the war in Ukraine is over, it may take its account book out of its pocket and settle it with India slowly.
If you want to talk about India’s ox and fork, it is that whether it is the United States or Russia, it should be handled properly and never frown. I’ll talk about the consequences later.