Source: A Bad Potato (ID: iamhtd)
It seems that overnight, Vietnam, which was still prosperous and noisy yesterday, became stagnant and silent.
Real estate projects have been hit by lightning, accelerating the collapse of Vietnam.
The capital withdrew in succession, leaving 1200 unfinished building in Vietnam, more than 100000 real estate intermediaries unemployed, and nearly 40% of the real estate enterprises went bankrupt because they could not withdraw funds. The real estate price plummeted by 37%. The key is that no one paid attention to it after the price fell, and the sales volume plummeted by more than 75%
And all of this is just the beginning.
In June of last year, housing prices in Vietnam reached historic highs, with both Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi City entering the top 10 in Asia in terms of price increases.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the average price of real estate commercial housing has reached 3300 US dollars per square meter, which is equivalent to 22000 RMB.
In the past three years, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City have maintained an annual growth rate of over 25%, with many so-called good locations west of Hanoi experiencing increases of nearly 35-74%
Even for civilian level commercial housing, the price has exceeded 17000 yuan/square meter, while townhouses have risen to 57000-86000 yuan/square meter.
You should know that in 2010, the average price of real estate in Ho Chi Minh City was around 1500 yuan, an increase of about 15 times in 12 years!
The price of houses has increased, and of course the prices of shops have increased. In Ho Chi Minh’s Bincheng market, the price of shops is $170000 per square meter, which is far higher than Shenzhen and is close to Ginza, Japan!
Is this price reasonable?
The population of Ho Chi Minh City is approximately 12 million, and the average monthly salary is equivalent to 2171 RMB.
That is to say, Vietnamese people in Ho Chi Minh City can buy a one square meter house without food or drink for 10 months of salary Vietnam has not yet begun to truly develop, and Vietnamese people have become the ultimate mortgage slaves!
There are several reasons why housing prices in Vietnam have risen so fiercely:
Vietnam’s economic development benefited from the Sino US trade war, and the form of its manufacturing industry is similar to that of China in 1995, where it engaged in processing with imported raw materials and spare parts from China. After processing and assembling, it was exported to the United States or Europe, with very low gross profit.
In 2022, Vietnam’s foreign trade exceeded 700 billion US dollars, but its surplus was only about 10 billion US dollars, and its GDP was only 409 billion US dollars;
And what’s even more surprising is that according to analysis, the industry that earns the most foreign exchange to Vietnam is not manufacturing, but actually agriculture, animal husbandry, and aquatic products
This data is very clear. In Vietnam, if you invest in the processing and manufacturing industry, your annual gross profit is only about 5% -7%;
But if you invest in real estate, your annual gross profit is at least 25%. If you invest in high-end residential areas, your gross profit can reach over 50%, which is 10 times that of manufacturing!
So how will capital choose? Of course, it is swarming into the real estate industry.
Originally, according to normal logic, with the development of the manufacturing industry, although Vietnam currently does not have a heavy industrial foundation, if given 50 years or more, raw material supply chain enterprises will continue to transfer to Vietnam for convenience and speed. Ultimately, Vietnam may form a complete and independent industrial chain in a certain industry, and start real competition with China.
From this perspective, it’s a bit similar to why we introduced Tesla, because Tesla cannot place its supply chain in the United States, Europe, or Japan, which would result in exorbitant manufacturing costs. It would set up teams to search for parts in China
Unfortunately, real estate speculators will not give Vietnam this opportunity.
Since 2012, real estate speculators from a mysterious country have been hoping to replicate their real estate experience in Vietnam, flocking in. More and more manufacturing enterprises have also started hoarding land in Vietnam, and with the support of several joint efforts, they are continuously pushing up housing prices in Vietnam.
Since 2015, Vietnam has officially implemented a new housing law, relaxing restrictions on foreign buyers and encouraging foreigners to freely purchase and sell real estate in Vietnam.
From then on, the real estate prices in Vietnam were like wild horses running wild. However, after 2018, due to the decline of real estate in a certain country, speculators, especially aunts, flocked to Vietnam, becoming a powerful force driving up housing prices in recent years.
For speculators in a certain country, Vietnam’s development today is similar to China’s in the 1990s. They will never forget the secret of their 30 year wealth, and they hope to reproduce this scene in Vietnam.
In their original plan, housing prices in Vietnam could rise by at least 10 years, and the average price in Ho Chi Minh City could reach over 60000 yuan.
More importantly, in 2020, Li Ka shing entered the market and recognized that housing prices in Vietnam would further soar in the future. He reached a framework cooperation agreement with Ho Chi Minh City and was about to conduct large-scale real estate investments in Vietnam.
Without 5 to 10 times or more space, Li Ka shing would not have taken action.
Li Ka shing’s joining has given real estate speculators greater confidence, as they aim to recreate a Chinese miracle in Vietnam, and this time their goal is even greater:
10 times in 5 years.
The promotional slogans have already been planned: Shanghai in the first ten years, and Ho Chi Minh City in the next ten years.
At this moment, Vietnam launched the nationwide real estate speculation model
It can be said that the development speed of real estate in Vietnam is at least five times faster than the speed of industrial development!
Because since investing in real estate can make a steady profit without losing, who is willing to suffer and work in the manufacturing industry?
Vietnam has finally entered a crazy moment.
At the end of 2021, the land price in Vietnam created a real miracle. New Himin Group won the bid with 24.5 trillion Vietnamese dong and acquired a piece of land in Ho Chi Minh City Development Zone, becoming the land king of Vietnam!
Yes, you’re right. It’s 24.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to 6.8 billion yuan.
Why is this a miracle? This land is only 10000 square meters, which means the average price per square meter is 680000 RMB!
What does this mean? The land king of Hong Kong in 2021 is located at New Beach 3 near Central, at HKD 340000 per square meter!
That is to say, the central land price in Vietnam is already twice that of Hong Kong! This also means that Vietnam’s real estate has entered a glorious mythological era!
Are Vietnam happy with this result? silly × Only then am I happy!
This means that Vietnam will develop its low-end manufacturing industry at the cost of Hong Kong in the future. Before industrial upgrading can take place, Vietnam has already enjoyed the real estate of developed countries!
No one really believes that real estate will become the core pillar industry of this country, bringing prosperity and strength to this country, but only housing slaves!
The Vietnamese government became increasingly wrong as they thought about it. Why is Vietnam’s land selling more expensive than Hong Kong? So they began to investigate and finally discovered the shocking situation behind it.
This New Huangming Group is a shell company that loses money every year and cannot make ends meet. He took this land at all costs because he issued derivative bonds based on the land before the auction, which were packaged as real estate investment products and sold to investors. He promised that in the future, the real estate prices in Vietnam would soar, and investing in real estate would result in extremely high returns. However, if losses occur, investors would bear them themselves
Don’t mention that the real estate bonds of New Huangming Group were quickly sold out, why?
Because in the past 10 years, land prices in Vietnam have risen too fast, and everyone believes that housing prices in Vietnam will only rise and not fall!
That is to say, New Huangming Group has no money at all, playing empty handed tricks on white wolves, crazy hype to push up land prices, and after they receive the money, they still have to continue to acquire the next piece of land
It can be imagined that if we continue to play like this, it is safe for the housing prices in Vietnam to surpass those in Hong Kong and New York!
In a cold sweat, the Vietnamese government stopped the project and arrested all the executives of New Himin Group. At the same time, there were many real estate tycoons in prison, including Jang Mi-ran, a Vietnamese real estate tycoon who cooperated with Li Ka shing
Because everyone is playing the game of empty handed white wolves!
What everyone wants is to work together to push up the land price in Vietnam. If we play for another 5 years, the average land price in Vietnam will almost be equivalent to Hong Kong. At that time, who would come to Vietnam to engage in manufacturing?
From the end of 2021, Vietnam began to comprehensively rectify the real estate market, but even so, in 2022, the real estate prices in Vietnam still increased by 25%.
Because Vietnamese people have formed a mindset and consensus:
Can the price of this house still fall? It’s just a matter of how much it goes up!
The real blow to Vietnam is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.
In the first quarter of 2023, due to the sharp decline in import demand from the United States, Vietnam’s imports and exports plummeted by 13%!
In April, the decline became even more severe, with a sharp drop of 18%!
In May, the downward trend did not stop, and it fell by 6% again!
For some countries, the decline in foreign trade exports can be easily carried away, but Vietnam cannot bear it because its dependence on foreign trade is the highest in the world, reaching an astonishing 200%;
For Vietnam, any wind that blows on the grassland in foreign trade is a trigger that moves the whole body.
Correspondingly, the economic growth rate has dropped to a 20-year low, and nearly 50000 Vietnamese enterprises have shut down.
Adidas and other companies have started to lay off employees comprehensively, and in the first quarter alone, another 1.05 million workers lost their jobs
And Vietnam’s financial market is undefended, so at this time, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, a large amount of foreign capital began to flee, because banks in the United States are also better at paying interest than in Vietnam.
As we said, since 2015, Vietnam has opened up the demand for foreign investors to buy houses. Considering the current situation in Vietnam, no one believes that the house price in Vietnam can be sustained. Therefore, the real estate market began to sell a large number of houses. The most direct impact of this selling is that the houses can not be sold, and the capital chain of the real estate company quickly broke and went bankrupt. Next, there were 1200 unfinished building intensively in the short term
The funds for bedding have exceeded 30 billion US dollars, and it should be noted that Vietnam has a surplus of 10 billion US dollars in foreign trade for one year.
In this state, the real estate in Vietnam is like a mini domino, where everyone wants to sell a house and no one wants to buy a house.
When confidence collapses, everything disappears. When there is confidence, speculators believe that Vietnam’s housing prices can be as high as New York;
When I don’t have confidence, I’m afraid I’ll become the Spider
Actually, they were already prepared to leave because no one could believe that a country in the clothing industry could have a higher land price than a country in the chip industry. However, their greed made them reluctant to leave because they thought they could still find the successor
What are the sickles and harvesting modes in the United States? Vietnam has performed a textbook like interpretation perfectly.
Developed countries’ funds will quickly flow into developing countries to invest in manufacturing, but the corresponding advance is the rapid rise in labor and real estate prices in this country. At this time, only one Fed rate hike is needed, and all funds will be withdrawn and fled back to the United States. Unless you have core technology and industry support, it will only leave a mess everywhere.
So, after Vietnam has gone through this decline, does it still have a chance to restart?
Almost impossible, because at this time, will low-end manufacturing still go to Vietnam?
At that time, I went to Vietnam because the land cost was cheap and labor was cheap?
Why go to Vietnam now that all these advantages are gone?
Want to avoid the Sino US trade war and go to Bangladesh or Myanmar?
Vietnam will be quickly wiped out by the capital
And can Vietnam still return to the mindset of 12 years ago?
I can’t go back anymore. It’s like a girl becoming a miss can’t be a good girl anymore, because she can earn 3000 yuan by lying in bed. Do you think she will still work hard to earn 3000 yuan a month by screwing in the factory or finding a school to improve herself?
The foundation and system of Vietnam require it to take nearly 100 years or even longer to complete our 30 year supply chain layout, but they can complete our 30 year explosive real estate development path in 10 years.
Because doing supply chain requires patience, but doing real estate only requires greed!
Unfortunately, no one can curb this greed because it is a weakness of human nature.
You are a local government in Vietnam. Do you have the perseverance to rely on industrial development instead of land finance?
You are a Vietnamese capital, can you curb your greed and not make fast money or slow money? Investing in industry instead of real estate?
You are a Vietnamese migrant worker. Whenever you have some spare money, do you seek a bank loan to buy a house or work honestly?
No link can be achieved, no one can resist the temptation of making fast money;
So, everyone can see the decline of the finish line, but no one can change their direction.
For a long time, the United States has been constantly trying to win over ASEAN. What do the United States most want and believe is the most likely goal to achieve?
It is impossible to encircle China militarily, and ASEAN cannot choose to stand on the sidelines at this time. It is well known that in the Asia Pacific region, China’s arms are much thicker than those of the United States.
So, what the United States most wants is for ASEAN to divide up China’s supply chain, so that the United States or Europe no longer relies on Chinese manufacturing, which is the easiest thing for the United States to achieve.
Is it possible for China’s supply chain to be divided by ASEAN?
There was once a real danger
When everyone is used to earning dollars, no one pays attention to the manufacturing industry.
Now is the best time to adjust. After 2022, we must establish a new economic structure and perspective.
Many people believe that China’s economy is showing signs of weakness and should quickly stimulate the service industry. This is simply a joke. The foundation of the service industry must be manufacturing, and if manufacturing is good, the service industry must be able to improve.
With manufacturing and industry, the most basic employment problem has been solved, and a large number of service industries will naturally grow.
But the problem now is that in the past 10 years, few people have been interested in investing in manufacturing, especially in the underlying supply chain.
I think in the next three years, whether we are willing or not, we can only accept one reality: the myth of overnight wealth is over, and people will eventually return to rationality and engage in scientific research and manufacturing.
In the future, only by accepting the myth that there will be no overnight wealth, and not thinking about growth that is several times or dozens of times, will both social and private capital invest in industry and technology with confidence.
It must be acknowledged that in the past 30 years, although technology has made decisive progress, we still face severe challenges, especially when we are not facing the United States, but the entire Western American group.
Under the premise that many basic technologies still lag behind the American Western Group, we must ensure a firm and continuous investment in industry and technology in order to grasp the next technological explosion.
And when all capital is only willing to make quick money, who has the heart to do these practical jobs?
Finally, I thought Vietnam’s real estate industry would explode in 5 years, but to my surprise, the greed of speculators made this scene happen today!