Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
The world situation is changing too fast!
Just now, a big event occurred. In Zhanhao’s view, this event will be a major deconstruction of the world rules. The US dollar will not be rampant for long!
The official website of PetroChina released important news on September 7. On September 6, during the seventh Oriental Economic Forum, Dai Houliang, chairman of CNPC, held a video conference with Miller, President of Gazprom. The two sides exchanged views on extensive cooperation in the field of natural gas. During the meeting, the two sides signed the China Russia east line natural gas purchase and sales agreement and relevant supplementary agreements. At the same time, Gazprom announced that the supplementary agreement confirmed that the payment method for natural gas supply to China would be changed from euro to ruble and RMB.
What about? This is really a big deal! That is to say, in the future, the settlement of Sino Russian natural gas transactions will all be settled in local currencies, and there will be no US dollars and euros! Putin also mentioned this in his speech at the seventh Oriental Economic Forum. He said that Chinese and Russian enterprises had just signed an agreement to settle natural gas trade in their own currencies. Putin said, “the settlement method of [Sino Russian natural gas] will be carried out in an equal proportion, 50:50.” This means that half of China’s purchase of Russian gas will be directly in RMB and the other half in rubles.
This move is the real China Russia pull the plug on the United States and Europe. In Zhanhao’s view (wechat official account: Zhanhao), it releases three heavy signals:
1? Russia obtains economic insurance, and China Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination is further deepened
If Russia signs such an agreement with China, it will really make a lot of money! Russia can gain at least two major benefits:
First, economic security has been guaranteed. You can think that the United States and the West have imposed economic sanctions on Russia and even detained more than $300 billion of Russian foreign exchange assets. It is obvious that Russia’s ability to obtain dollars and euros is declining. Although Russia requires that the purchase of Russian energy must be settled in rubles, which temporarily stabilizes Russia’s currency and financial system, with the reduction of Russian European energy transactions, Russian finance, currency and economy will face tremendous pressure. However, due to the lack of dollars and euros in Russia’s hands, it is bound to be unable to fight back against short selling of Western currencies in the United States.
Now it is different. In 2021, China imported 334.2 billion yuan of energy products from Russia, with a total import volume of 512.2 billion yuan. In the future, once settled in local currency, the trade volume between China and Russia will certainly increase greatly. In this way, as long as the United States and the west short the ruble, China will buy a large amount of ruble as a backing. The exchange rate of the ruble is escorted by China, which is really too safe. China has more than 300 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, some of which are us dollars and euros. When the ruble falls against the above two currencies, China can solve the problem as long as it buys the ruble in US dollars or euros, and it does not need to hold so many US dollars or euros, which is equivalent to directly exchanging Russian oil and gas. Or, it is the same to buy rubles directly with RMB. In short, China can protect Russia’s financial security.
Moreover, as long as oil and natural gas are settled in local currency, other commodity trade between China and Russia can be settled directly in local currency. Some people may have said that China protects Russia’s financial security. What does Russia give China? China directly buys Russian oil with RMB, which is one of the biggest advantages! Looking back, there are a series of advantages! Moreover, if Russia sells oil and gas to China, it will be more favorable. This price difference is a material benefit to China.
2? The internationalization of RMB will be significantly accelerated, and the “made in China” and Chinese brands will expand the market
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2021, the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia exceeded 900 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 948.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, a record high. Among them, China’s exports to Russia reached 436.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, maintaining a year-on-year growth trend for six consecutive years; Imports from Russia amounted to 512.23 billion yuan, up 28.2% year-on-year. Among them, China imported 334.29 billion yuan of energy products from Russia, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, accounting for 65.3% of China’s total import value from Russia that year.
After the settlement in local currency between China and Russia, the growth of trade between China and Russia is bound to accelerate, which will directly bring two major strategic effects:
First, the internationalization of RMB is bound to accelerate. The acceleration of the internationalization of RMB is not only in the local currency settlement market of China Russia trade, but also in countries with close trade relations with Russia, which will also choose to use China Russia, because this will greatly improve the settlement efficiency and trade stability, so that the RMB will expand the international market. At the same time, many countries, including China and Russia, find that the settlement in local currency is conducive to the accelerated growth of trade, and they will accelerate the settlement in local currency, especially the oil producing countries in the Middle East.
In the past, a very important reason for the slowdown in the internationalization of RMB was the lack of a major strategic breakthrough. Now the settlement of Sino Russian trade in local currency is a major strategic breakthrough, and its effect will quickly appear in the next few years.
Second, made in China and Chinese brands will accelerate their occupation of the international market. Once the internationalization of RMB accelerates, China’s advantages in international trade will become prominent. Just imagine that our settlement was originally constrained by the fluctuation of the US dollar. Once it was converted into Renminbi, the expectation of buying made in China was stable, and we would not worry about exchange rate losses. Chinese enterprises are more willing to accept the renminbi, and other countries will also benefit from the local currency trading center. What needs to be pointed out in particular is that the sharp rise of the US dollar has also given many countries a better opportunity to convert US dollars into Renminbi.
In the current state of stagnant world trade, China’s trade has increased significantly for two consecutive years. The fundamental reason for all this lies in the quality of “made in China”. In the case of a bad economy, high quality and low price have greatly enhanced the competitiveness of “made in China”. In fact, the fundamental reason why the international community increasingly recognizes “made in China” and “Chinese brands” is that the Chinese people increasingly recognize “made in China” and “Chinese brands”! It is the huge market of China that supports “made in China” and then has the ability to occupy the world!
In fact, the United States and Western countries have been suppressing China in economy and trade, from various anti-dumping duties to the subsequent trade war, as well as the embargo on chips for China and even the whole Chinese market. Chinese enterprises seek survival in the cracks, but when we achieve breakthroughs in science, technology and technology, not only made in China began to go global with the support of the Chinese market, but also made in China and Chinese brands are doing the same. Just like the impression that China was still the world’s factory 10 years ago, now “made in China” has become a synonym for high quality and low price, and Chinese brands are also going global.
3? Hegemonic rules begin to be deconstructed
As a hegemonic country, the United States has always been supported by four hegemonic pillars: military hegemony, financial hegemony, scientific and technological hegemony, and cultural and media hegemony.
Although the hegemony of cultural media still exists on the surface, its roots are rotten. Because the media hegemony of the United States in the past was based on the so-called “vest” of democracy, freedom and human rights, now the United States itself suspects that this so-called “moral vest” affects its direct attack, so it has now taken off robbing and stealing directly. Without this “moral vest”, the cultural media hegemony of the United States would have lost its core. Now the media in the United States and the West would only be left with deception and deception, far from being able to respond to everything as they did in the past.
In terms of military hegemony, the United States is no longer the dominant power. In particular, the growth of China’s military strength has made it impossible for the United States to think as it used to in the face of China. For example, when Pelosi visited Taiwan a few days ago, China conducted a military blockade exercise on the Taiwan Island, and the United States aircraft carrier did not dare to approach it. In the South China Sea, Sino US military exchanges are conducted almost every day.
In terms of scientific and technological hegemony, the only thing that the United States can temporarily block China’s neck is chips. Once China conquers the technology of the whole industrial chain of chips, it will directly wipe out the chip market. The point that the United States has blocked China’s neck in the past few years is the huge loss point of the United States itself. China’s customer service chip is stuck in the neck. It won’t take long, and it can’t really stop China. It can only be delayed temporarily.
Among the three hegemony mentioned above, the United States shows signs of faltering, and financial hegemony is the most difficult, because it requires not only strong financial infrastructure support. However, China has long taken precautions. The RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) has been under construction for 10 years, and China and Russia have also started cooperation in the construction of financial infrastructure for several years. However, international finance itself is a very important part of international governance, so China and Russia have been promoting cooperation very slowly, especially when the Russian economy and currency are in a relatively weak position.
Now that the West has imposed “cold war” sanctions on Russia, Putin no longer has any worries, so the settlement of Sino Russian trade in local currency is logical. The settlement of Sino Russian trade in local currency will be a major deconstruction of the US dollar hegemony system. There are two core connotations:
First, China Russia trade will be fully settled in local currency in the future, which in fact means that the RMB and ruble will gradually replace the US dollar in the region, because such a transaction cost is lower, the risk is smaller, and the convenience is higher. For example, China and Russia use RMB and ruble for energy transactions. It is obvious that China will be more inclined to import Russian energy, and relevant countries in the Middle East and Central Asia will certainly actively dissolve in their own currencies. And ASEAN, seeing the advantages of local currency settlement, we will certainly expand trade in local currency settlement. In this way, the hegemony of the US dollar will gradually be deconstructed, and the internationalization of the RMB will inevitably accelerate.
Second, the complete de dollarization of trade between China and Russia means that a dollar free market has been established. When this market has the political support of China and Russia, it means that it has military protection. This is obviously beneficial to the third party. Of course, what is damaged is the financial hegemony of the United States.
At the Eastern Economic Forum, Putin said that western countries have destroyed the key pillars of the world economic system and tried to confront the historical process. We have lost confidence in the US dollar, euro and pound sterling. Russia is gradually reducing the use of these unreliable foreign currencies that have ruined its reputation. ” Putin also said, “incidentally, even the US allies are gradually reducing their US dollar reserves. The statistics are very clear.” In fact, Putin’s series of words have announced that Russia has completely abandoned the dollar and even the euro. The signing of this agreement with China means that Russia has been guaranteed economically, the economic cycle between China and Russia has been smoother, and both China and Russia have benefited. Putin certainly has more confidence and strength in the West’s wrist wrestling. Since the Russian Ukrainian war, Putin’s smiling face has been rare, but at the 2022 military exercise in the East, Putin smiled very easily. It seems that on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, Putin should have the strength to make further efforts!
The big country game needs to be played step by step. The recent step has a far-reaching impact. Let’s look down. Some major changes will happen unconsciously!