Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
The game of great powers is really a thunderbolt from the ground. Sometimes the situation changes, and history is completely rewritten.
Take the Russian Ukrainian war as an example. When Zhanhao decided that the Russian Ukrainian war must be fought in November last year, in fact, few people thought that Putin would make a move, but the fact is that Putin made efforts in late February 2022. Putin’s effort this time was completely forced by the United States, but this move will inevitably change the development process of world history.
More than 20 years later, Russia was still in a state of disaster at that time. When the United States bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, the whole world dared not break its wrists with it. He even brazenly bombed the Chinese Embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and owed the Chinese people a blood debt. However, more than 20 years later, Putin can take the initiative to launch a military counterattack against the US sphere of influence. This is definitely a major historic moment.
In fact, as we all know, the influence of big countries in the global game is really great. In the last 20 years or so, for example, in the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States was so powerful that it could overthrow a state power and order the lives of its leaders. Typical cases are the Afghanistan war and the Iraq war. The regimes of the two countries were overthrown by the United States with a stroke of the pen, and Saddam was publicly hanged by the United States.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia was tricked into “shock therapy” by the United States and the west at that time, but it was finally crushed to death and almost collapsed again. At that time, the average life expectancy of Russia was reduced by at least 20 years, and the consequences were very tragic. Yeltsin, then president of Russia, did countless wrong things during his term of office, but Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) believes that he did two right things in the final stage.
Zhanhao believes that the first important thing Yeltsin finally did was to choose Putin as his successor. After taking office, Putin used his own ability and the strong means of the state machine to regain control of energy from Russia’s comprador capital oligarchs. As a result, Russia has stabilized its basic market politically and economically.
Zhanhao believed that the second right thing Yeltsin did was to establish a close relationship with China, an Oriental power. The significance of establishing close ties between Russia and China is that after China’s successful accession to the WTO in 2001, its economy entered the super fast lane of development. Russia sold a large amount of energy to China with rapid development, and caught the fastest development stage of the rejuvenation train of the Oriental powers. Therefore, Russia became a BRICs country, and its economy and people’s livelihood improved significantly.
The first major event for Russia to recover its ability in global politics was the war in Georgia in 2008. Just imagine that Russia was still so bleak in 2000, but in 2008, Putin could personally notify George W. Bush to start the war at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. This is a great stimulus to the United States. However, the reason why Russia’s economy can recover rapidly is that it benefits from the development of China.
In the following five years, Russia continued to take a ride on China’s development. In 2013, when Obama announced that he would bomb Syria, Putin dared to tell the United States in the strongest voice that Russia would fully support Syria as long as the United States attacked Syria. This made Putin completely offend the United States, so from the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2014, the United States supported the Ukrainian opposition to launch the Ukrainian Street revolution, and finally overthrew the regime at that time.
The reason why the core contradiction between Russia and the United States NATO could not be reconciled later was that the United States stepped into Russia’s door with the eastward expansion of NATO. If Russia does not stop Ukraine from joining NATO, once Ukraine joins NATO, Russia may fall into a new round of collapse and disintegration. It was against this background that Putin took a thorough counterattack against the United States.
Russia has made a strong and thorough counterattack against the United States and the west, and the United States and the West have also imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia. However, Russia has not collapsed under the most severe sanctions, but has become braver and braver on the battlefield, and its economic losses are far smaller than expected.
How big the economic losses in Russia are? We can see the leopard from some data. On the one hand, according to the preliminary estimate of the Russian Ministry of finance, the Russian budget revenue from January to may exceeded 12 trillion rubles (about US $211.8 billion), the budget expenditure was 10.5 trillion rubles (about US $185.3 billion), and the budget surplus exceeded 1.49 trillion rubles (about US $26.3 billion). That is to say, after so long war, Russia has a budget surplus of US $26.3 billion. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia’s oil export revenue in may still soared to about 20billion US dollars because of the help of rising global energy prices. In its monthly report released on Wednesday, the IEA estimated that the revenue increased by 11% compared with the previous month, and the total revenue of Russia’s export of crude oil and petroleum products roughly returned to the level before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although the export volume fell by about 3%.
That is to say, Russia fought a war and the West imposed such sanctions, but they did not affect Russia’s income. Instead, the real income increased. In May, Russia’s crude oil exports increased by nearly 500000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year. This increase was mainly due to the increase in deliveries to Asian customers. The United States and the West imposed sanctions on Russia in order to prevent Russia from obtaining enough income, so as to curb Russia’s economic support. But what the United States did not expect was that after three months of fighting, Russia’s income increased instead of decreased.
So why can Russia not care about us and Western sanctions? This was the right move Yeltsin made at that time, that is, to improve Sino Russian relations as soon as possible during his term of office. China Russia relations have improved for more than 20 years, and have developed into a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination. It is precisely this trust between China and Russia that makes the United States unable to separate China and Russia. As a result of the comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Russia, China, as the world’s second largest economy, the world’s largest market, largest trading country and largest manufacturing country, refuses to join the United States and the West in imposing sanctions on Russia. China does not impose sanctions. The United States and the West are just using their milk power, but still can not really hurt Russia. This is the true embodiment of China’s great power energy and great power status.
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the total amount of crude oil imported by China in May was about 45.82 million tons, an increase of over 11.8% year-on-year. Among them, 8.42 million tons of crude oil were imported from Russia, a year-on-year increase of 55%. After 19 months, Russia once again replaced Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil source. Following Russia, China imported 7.82 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia in May, a year-on-year increase of 9%, but lower than the 8.93 million tons in April.
Why has Russia increased its crude oil exports to China? In fact, the reason is very simple. The comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia determines that it is impossible for China to sanction Russia together with the United States and the West. At the same time, the sanctions of the United States and the West cannot prevent the normal national cooperation between China and Russia. In this way, some interests of the United States and the West will naturally be transferred to China. For example, some oil and gas originally exported to Europe will be sold by Russia to non western countries including China and India.
Therefore, we can see that Russia’s oil export to China in May reached 8.42 million tons. Russia’s oil supply to non western countries is now openly said to be 30% lower than the international oil price. From the perspective of China Russia relations, I’m afraid that China’s oil imports from Russia may be more than 30%. If this speculation is true, the price of crude oil imported by China from Russia may be less than $70, based on the current international oil price of $100.
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China spent 36.9 billion yuan on importing Russian crude oil this month, which is less than the total amount of Saudi Crude Oil (40.3 billion yuan). Among the top suppliers, Russian crude oil has the lowest unit cost. Compared with the oil prices imported by China from Russia and Saudi Arabia in May, the average price of crude oil imported from Russia is less than $90 a barrel, while the average price of oil imported from Saudi Arabia is more than $105 a barrel. The average price of crude oil imported from Russia is $16 less than that imported from Saudi Arabia.
You can pay attention to it. Has China taken sides in the war between Russia and Ukraine? Not at all. China has even provided Ukraine with at least $5million in living supplies. Of course, China has also rejected the demands of the United States and the West for China to cooperate with the sanctions, and China has maintained its neutral position. However, if China’s neutral position is put there, the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West will basically fail. This is China’s power as a great power and China’s power!
What is powerful about China is that even if it only remains neutral, it has already had a heavy impact on the world, making it impossible for those hegemonic countries to do whatever they like in the past. This is the influence of big powers! Of course, China has always exercised restraint in the face of US attacks on China, but even so, it still makes the United States very uncomfortable. For example, China does not show its teeth and claws like the United States, but as long as China goes there and draws the bottom line, there are only a few countries in the world willing to follow the United States. This is the strength of a big country and the strength of China!
No matter what the United States thinks, China today is there, and as long as China stands there, the United States can’t do whatever it wants! This should be the power of great powers in the new era of the 21st century.