Source: Jingsiyouwo666
In the previous issue, we analyzed the awkward and ridiculous reality facing the United States in recent days:
In 2018, they sanctioned a Chinese official named Li Shangfu, who became China’s Minister of Defense in March 2023. However, the US Department of Defense in 2023 is in a hurry to meet with China’s Minister of Defense. This is embarrassing. According to the sanctions imposed by the United States on Li Shangfu, he cannot go to the United States and cannot obtain a visa to go to the United States at all.
Americans are quite capable of finding ways. In order to meet Li Shangfu, they proposed to meet in Singapore. Since there will be a Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore from June 2 to 4, Li Shangfu will attend, as will Austin, the Secretary of Defense of the United States.
However, China rejected this request from the United States. The reason is naturally very simple. If you sanction me, it shows that I am a bad person in your eyes. So why do you still meet me? So why should I still meet you?
So, as I mentioned in the previous issue, the United States sanctioned Chinese official Li Shangfu in 2018, and the result by 2023 was that they sanctioned themselves. This is really just lifting a stone and hitting oneself in the foot, or being trapped in a cocoon.
This is a real scene that happened in reality. Next, I want to have an inference with my friends.
The awkwardness and ridicule of Americans now stem from two factors: firstly, they sanctioned Li Shangfu in 2018. Secondly, in 2023, they must meet Li Shangfu again.
These two conditions are indispensable, otherwise they wouldn’t be embarrassed. If they did not sanction Li Shangfu in 2018, then if they want to see him now, China can fully consider it. On the other hand, if they sanctioned Li Shangfu in 2018, and by 2023, although Li Shangfu became the Minister of Defense, they would not need to meet Li Shangfu, so they would not be embarrassed or ridiculed by the world.
I want to analyze today, why do they have to see Li Shangfu?
In the previous issue, I briefly provided such a reason. On July 26, 2021, Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng of China at the time met with visiting US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman in Tianjin and said this sentence: Americans want to “eliminate bad things and seize all the benefits”.
Apply this sentence to the current scenario. He wants to meet Li Shangfu, just to seize all the benefits. The normal strategy in China is that if you want to take advantage, then I need to negotiate terms with you, and the core is that you do less bad things.
So this time he wants to see Li Shangfu, what are the main benefits he wants to gain?
There are naturally many benefits that Americans want to take advantage of. Today, I will talk about two events that have occurred in the past 10 days – both of which are military related and are under the supervision of Li Shangfu, the Chinese Minister of Defense.
On May 30th, the US Indo Pacific Command released a video showing the PLA J-16 intercepting the US RC135 reconnaissance aircraft.
No need to guess, the location of the incident is near Chinese territorial waters, and it will definitely not occur near US territorial waters. According to open-source data, this US military RC135 reconnaissance aircraft came to explore China’s military situation near its territorial waters, and was only 50 kilometers away from China’s coastline recently.
The core plot of the matter is that the People’s Liberation Army scared the US military.
The most critical and specific plot of the matter is:
The US military reconnaissance plane arrived near our territorial waters, and the People’s Liberation Army aircraft first conducted a companion flight. This kind of accompanying flight is not to play with, but to give a voice warning and ask him to leave.
The US military aircraft did not listen well, and then the People’s Liberation Army aircraft made a move that scared the US military. This action is for our military aircraft to accelerate from the right side of the US military, fly at high speed to the front of the US military aircraft, pass at high speed, and then turn away from the Chinese coast.
This action is the standard international action for handling similar events. Flying in front of him signifies a harsher warning. Then turn away from the coast of China to signal or demand that he follow this route, which means that he should fly further away from China – in the words of the common people, “get him out of here.
How did this move scare the US military?
Because our fighter jet suddenly accelerated from his right side to fly in front of him, at a particularly fast speed, it would generate a huge airflow. When we take a civil aviation plane, we all know that when the plane in the sky encounters a huge airflow, the plane will shake violently.
It can be clearly seen from the video that the US military aircraft shakes violently, which is called “tremor” in written language.
This is a bit dangerous. According to an article on the US military website ‘Theater of War’, if the US military is not prepared or mishandled, it is likely that US aircraft will enter a tumbling state in this strong airflow.
If American planes roll in the sky??
You keep thinking, you keep thinking… what will happen?
So, this scared the US military. To be honest, I think they were probably really scared – they didn’t pretend and didn’t lie this time.
Then, the US military followed the direction indicated by the flight trajectory of the People’s Liberation Army fighter jets and flew away.
Then, the US military accused the villain first and released a video to the world, saying that the People’s Liberation Army had scared him. Of course, he wouldn’t have said that the People’s Liberation Army scared him. His original words were that the People’s Liberation Army had created “unnecessary ‘radical maneuvers’. And then it was said that the People’s Liberation Army created danger, and it was also said that the People’s Liberation Army was not professional… In short, a lot of hats were put on the People’s Liberation Army’s head.
This topic also became an important topic for United States Secretary of Defense Austin to blame China at the Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore from June 2 to 4.
I will not elaborate today on how China and the United States clashed on this matter at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The key point that I want to analyze with my friends today is that the US military was scared this time, really scared.
Through his shock this time, we know what benefits United States Secretary of Defense Austin wants to get from meeting Chinese Defense Secretary Li Shangfu at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
I still said that, there are many benefits he wants to gain. Today, I will only talk about one of them. The benefit I want to talk about today is that he wants to have a good discussion with China about how to regulate operations in international airspace if two planes collide.
What is standard operation like? It’s actually about preventing accidents. If both parties have agreed, neither party will take any unusual actions, which can ensure the safety of both parties and prevent small matters from turning into big ones. For example, if either party’s plane crashes, it is an international event.
So, why did the United States become a humble gentleman and discuss this standard operation with China? Isn’t the United States always like to go straight and sideways?
Please note that the incident I just mentioned occurred near China’s territorial waters, and when the US reconnaissance plane was closest to the Chinese coastline, it was only 50 nautical miles.
The US military reconnaissance planes are definitely not coming for tourism, they are spying on China’s military situation. At that time, China’s aircraft carrier was training in that area of the sea, and he came here to gather intelligence and even interfere with our training.
In addition, the detection range of RC135 in the United States can reach 240 kilometers. Let’s simply calculate that when it is closest to China, it is 50 kilometers away from the Chinese coastline, which means it can detect depths as high as 190 kilometers in mainland China. Military operations within 190 kilometers in mainland China are likely to be detected.
He is here to do this.
Undoubtedly, he also knows that there is danger in his coming to do this, such as the one just mentioned, which indicates that the danger has truly occurred.
So, he also wants to talk to China about what China should not do. If China doesn’t do what it does, it can ensure its safety, and then it can safely spy on China’s military situation.
So, on July 26, 2021, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng said that Americans want to “eliminate bad things and seize all the benefits”, which is very accurate. In this incident, to do away with bad things was to spy on the Chinese military situation; Take advantage of all the benefits, but still want to be safe when doing bad things. Just like a thief wanting to sign a secure operation agreement with the owner, if he is caught stealing, both parties will follow the agreed upon safe operation, which can save him from death—— That’s roughly what it means.
So, let’s continue our analysis.
He wants to discuss with China the operational norms that can ensure his safety, which indicates that he is likely to be unsafe.
So let’s think about it in reverse. If there is no risk in how he operates, is it still necessary for him to discuss with you the operational norms to prevent his risks?
For example, if the combat power of the People’s Liberation Army is not strong enough to pose risks to him, or if the courage of the People’s Liberation Army is not strong enough to pose risks to him, then he is safe in short. It doesn’t matter if it’s not standardized.
So, when we take the logic one step further, we will find that the deep-seated reason why he wants to talk to China is that the People’s Liberation Army has the ability and courage to create danger for him, making him unsafe and making him feel afraid. He just thought of discussing with the People’s Liberation Army so that he could be safer when doing things.
Please pay attention to one detail. The PLA fighter jet that scared the US military this time is the J-16, which is a 4th generation and a half generation fighter jet.
On April 1, 2001, 22 years ago, fighter planes from both China and the United States met near China’s territorial waters and unfortunately collided. Chinese fighter planes and pilots fell into the sea, and what type of fighter plane was piloted by the sacrificed Chinese pilot Wang Wei? The answer is: J-8, that’s a third-generation aircraft. And the J-8 fighter jet had just formed combat power in the year 2000, just before the accident occurred. At that time, it was still one of China’s most advanced fighter jets. However, when encountering the EP3 reconnaissance aircraft of the US military at that time, an accident occurred. The sacrificial pilot Wang Wei was a very experienced pilot. Among his fellow pilots, he was the earliest to achieve a flight time of over 1000 hours. Within a few years of joining the military, Wang Wei became a first-class pilot in China’s “Four Meteorology”. When he sacrificed, the total flight time had already exceeded 2000 hours. Unfortunately, the Chinese J-8 fighter jet he piloted at the time of his sacrifice, although one of the most advanced fighter planes in China at that time, was still unusable in the face of the advanced EP3 electronic reconnaissance aircraft of the US military.
However, on May 26, 2023, 22 years later, Chinese pilots piloted the advanced fourth and half generation fighter jet, the J-16, which is second only to the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the fifth generation fighter jet. So on this day, Chinese pilots were able to make American electronic reconnaissance planes tremble with fear. We usually refer to shivering as a metaphor. And this time, saying that American fighter jets tremble is not metaphorical, but a true description. Because their fighter jet experienced a severe tremor in the powerful wake of the Chinese J-16 fighter jet. They also analyzed themselves, and it’s possible that they will roll in the air. They didn’t analyze, but if they do, what will happen to them in the end? We can develop associations.
Let’s turn this logic around and sort it out in the opposite direction:
Because China’s aircraft are more advanced, they can create danger for the US military; Due to the US military feeling that he was in danger of coming to China’s territorial waters to spy on its military situation, he wanted to talk to China about the operation of air encounters; Because he wants to talk about standardized operations, he wants to meet China’s Minister of Defense; Due to his desire to meet China’s defense minister, China can embarrass him by refusing to meet, embarrass him, make him laugh or cry, and make him impose the sanctions imposed on Chinese official Li Shangfu in 2018, like a boomerang, on himself. Due to the sanctions imposed by the United States on Chinese official Li Shangfu in 2018, the actual effect in 2023 became to sanction himself, which allowed ordinary Chinese netizens like me to write articles mocking Americans and comforting the heroic Chinese pilot Wang Wei who died in the sea on April 1, 2001.
Logic is such a logic. So today I want to say that the kind of mockery of the United States and pride in China that I presented to my friends in the previous issue all stem from the improvement of China’s military strength.
Without the improvement of strength, many strategies are difficult to implement. So in the previous issue, I focused on sharing China’s strategies with my friends, while in this issue, I am focused on sharing China’s strength with my friends.
And I want to say that at any time, strength has both material and spiritual factors – this is the dialectic of Marxism. Just now, the focus was on material factors. Next, I would like to analyze mental factors with my friends. The spiritual factor is mainly reflected in the courage to fight and win, which, in the words of the common people, is “daring to engage in activities”.
On May 26th, Chinese pilots scared the US military, which itself clearly reflects the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s “dare to fight”, because if the US military aircraft really trembled and fell from the sky, it would be a big event. According to the habit of Chinese people not to act recklessly, we can fully infer that the action taken by Chinese pilots on May 26th, which made the US military feel dangerous, must have calculated the consequences as well. That is to say, if the US military plane really falls into the sea, then it will fall into the sea. Whatever happens then will happen, anyway, we are absolutely not afraid of it.
And at this point, two days ago on June 3rd, something happened that made us feel this more truly.
On June 3rd, the US Navy’s “Zhong Yun” destroyer and the Canadian Navy’s “Montreal” frigate crossed the Taiwan Strait again. Chinese warships followed and guarded the entire process as usual, and dealt with them in accordance with the law and regulations—— This is the expression we heard during a speech by the spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army.
What other vivid content is there?
Please refer to the news released by the Canadian journalist on board the Canadian frigate “Montreal” at the time. The reporter posted this news with a video. From the video, it can be seen that the Chinese warship accelerated directly and headed towards the bow of the US warship. This means that if both sides do not change their course, the two warships will collide together.
The Canadian journalist quoted Paul Monteford, the captain of the Montreal frigate, as saying that the Chinese warship had made it very clear to the US warship that if you did not change your course, there would be a collision between the two sides.
What does that mean? That’s to point out. I’ll tell you, if you don’t change your course, both sides will collide. Anyway, I won’t change my course. Then the US military also requested the Chinese warship to change course, but in the end, the Chinese warship did not change course. In the end, the US warship had to slow down and change course.
Let’s experience this detail. Chinese warships are not afraid of colliding with American warships, and they explicitly shouted to the US military in advance, highlighting this matter.
Let’s imagine that if a Chinese warship collides with a US warship this time, it must be another big uproar. Please allow me to speculate recklessly that the unification war that the Chinese people have been thinking about day and night may have erupted like this.
So, let’s guess from the perspective of the Americans again, if the United States wants to trigger this war, it is very likely that it will not change its course and let two warships collide together.
So, conversely, the US warship slowed down and changed course, indicating that it did not want or dared not trigger this war.
This also reflects the differences in the will of the two armies. China is not afraid of things, and in the current United States, I can say with great certainty that he is afraid of things. He is afraid that the war that Chinese people think about day and night triggered at that point in time.
This is my logical reasoning.
Because it is reasoning after all, my friends may feel a bit unreliable, so I will provide some supporting materials for them.
Recently, the United States and its Western allies have suddenly become masters of justice. They really presided over justice once. I said here that they uphold justice without using quotation marks.
On May 26th, the day when Chinese People’s Liberation Army fighter jets scared American fighter jets, an accident occurred in the Kosovo region of the Balkan Peninsula in Europe.
On that day, the Kosovo authorities demanded that the Albanian mayors elected during the elections they presided over be forcibly inaugurated, sparking protests from the local Serbian community. By May 29th, the US led NATO peacekeeping force had engaged in violent clashes with protesters, resulting in dozens of injuries. Subsequently, the commander of NATO’s so-called peacekeeping force in Kosovo issued a warning that the situation could escalate.
All of this has made people around the world very worried about whether this long-standing “powder keg” will really explode. Because behind the events mentioned earlier, Serbian President Vuchi ? ordered the Serbian army to raise its combat readiness to the highest level and urgently move towards the administrative line in the direction of Kosovo. Simply put, it is: the army is overwhelming the border.
At this time, according to convention, the United States and its allies should support his godson – Kosovo. Before the outbreak of this crisis, the United States and its allies were clearly leaning against each other. Because the trigger for this incident was an election held in that region, with a voter turnout of less than 3.5%. This election was led by the Kosovo authorities and ultimately the people they wanted were elected. In this situation, Americans do not condemn the absurdity of this election and say it is “constitutional and legal”.
After all, the Americans are leaning towards Kosovo. But when the powder keg was about to explode, the Americans turned around.
On May 26th, countries such as the United States, Britain, Germany, and France issued a joint statement condemning their godson – Kosovo. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also issued a separate statement again condemning Kosovo.
When I first saw this news, I was a bit confused. I felt like they were acting, so I decided to slowly read on. Subsequently, the United States unexpectedly sanctioned Kosovo by suspending its participation in a planned military exercise with their group.
When the United States specifically sanctioned Kosovo, I was certain that this time the United States was upholding justice. Once again, I said here that he is presiding over justice without using quotation marks.
At first, I really couldn’t figure it out.
I thought and thought, and suddenly remembered the sentence our chairman said on September 12, 1953, summarizing the significance of the victory in resisting the United States and aiding Korea:
American imperialism is very arrogant, and wherever it is possible to be unreasonable, it must be unreasonable. If there is any reason, it will be forced to be unreasonable
Remembering the Chairman’s words, I suddenly understood everything.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which the United States has been manipulating behind the scenes for more than a year, cannot stop for a while. If Europe’s powder keg on the Balkan Peninsula were to show any signs of trouble, the United States would not be able to withstand the unbearable weight of two conflicts.
So, this time he took action against his godson Kosovo, condemning and imposing sanctions on him, with the aim of preventing this disobedient godson from causing trouble when he should not. In the words of the common people, I can no longer afford it.
This fully shows that although the United States only manipulates and secretly supports the Russia-Ukraine conflict behind the scenes, it has also reached the upper limit that he can bear at present. So he can’t face a new conflict anymore.
So, a small Kosovo crisis, he still dare not face it, cannot bear it, and cannot act according to his original will. So can he still withstand a Taiwan Strait crisis now?
China is not Serbia in Europe. Once a Taiwan Strait conflict occurs, it must be overwhelming and the earth shaking—— Americans are all too aware of this.
Now we should understand that in terms of combat will, on June 3rd, in the Taiwan Strait, after the encounter between Chinese and American warships, Chinese warships had the will and courage to have an accident with American warships, while American warships did not, so they had to slow down and change course.
Simply put, the current US military dare not fight; The current People’s Liberation Army dares to fight.
The question of daring to fight is the question of the will to fight. The question that the common people dare not engage in, the question of whether to shine or not in TV dramas!
To summarize, today I analyzed two aspects:
The first aspect is the issue of combat strength, as evidenced by the fact that the PLA’s J-16 fighter jets frightened the US military on May 26th.
On June 3rd, the People’s Liberation Army warship intercepted directly in front of the US warship, highlighting that if the US military did not slow down and turn, the two countries’ warships would collide, ultimately forcing the US warship to slow down and turn, indicating that the second aspect is that the People’s Liberation Army has sufficient fighting will.
With strength and will, why are we still in a hurry?
Logically speaking, if we are not in a hurry, the United States will definitely be in a hurry. The United States wants to talk to China, it’s true, it’s not a show, it’s not a show.
Unfortunately, the person they want to talk to was sanctioned by them in 2018. So the Chinese official Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by them, ignored them.
At the dinner of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 2, United States Secretary of Defense Austin and Chinese Secretary of Defense Li Shangfu sat at the same table. I don’t know whether this was deliberately arranged, but there were two people in the middle. Austin got up and crossed the two people to Li Shangfu’s side, shook hands with our Secretary of Defense, smiled and was very polite.
Chinese self media have expressed the sentiment that the United States only shakes hands with people they cannot win or dare not fight.
Speaking of this, a friend must have asked the question that has been asked many times: why not fight now?
I have said this question no less than 10 times in the past. So I won’t go into detail today, just talk about the central idea. My point is to use financial language to interpret this issue: for the unification war we are looking forward to, China does not have the problem of whether to win or not, let alone the problem of not daring to fight. What we are planning now is to obtain the benefits we want with the minimum cost.
The minimum cost is not to fight. Because it doesn’t work, it can be considered as zero cost. In the latest issue, I also changed my perspective and expressed my meaning as follows:
What Chinese people pursue is not to kill 1000 enemies and self harm 800, but to kill 1000 enemies and ensure their own safety. If possible, we can kill 1000 enemies and earn him a thousand or eight hundred.
If you want to avoid fighting, you must win, and it must be a crushing victory, and you must make the United States feel that the advantages of this crushing victory are real.
The two things I mentioned today are to make Americans experience this feeling. It must be acknowledged that the United States must experience it multiple times before it can change its course.
Now they haven’t experienced it enough, the intensity is not strong enough, and the fear is not strong enough, so our strategy is to let them continue to experience it, from both quality and quantity aspects, let them experience it more for free, and finally make their thoughts undergo a qualitative change.
I have said before: from the end of World War II to 2001, there were 248 conflicts worldwide, of which 201 were related to the United States, accounting for over 80%. The United States has been established for over 200 years and has only been without a war for over a decade. It shows how much the United States enjoys war. But recently, I detailed with my friends the list of opponents chosen by the United States in the war since World War II – at that time, I listed them one by one by name, and the most powerful opponent was actually the New China of 1950. But there was a special background at that time, which was that the Americans at that time never expected that the Chinese People’s Volunteer Army would be so powerful – I mean, if they had known that the Volunteer Army was so powerful, they would definitely not have provoked China. From this, I have statistically analyzed a fact: after World War II, the United States has never faced a strong opponent.
The United States, which has never faced a strong opponent in over 70 years, looks very powerful. In fact, as long as you make him feel that you are strong enough, he will immediately become weak and come over to shake hands with you.
This is the possibility for China to strive to achieve its aspirations at the lowest cost.
Of course, I admit that this is just a possibility.
What if this possibility doesn’t happen? That’s very easy to handle. According to the simplest logic, if you want to do it, go ahead and see if the US military has the courage. At least I didn’t analyze the current US military today. Is there tomorrow? We looked at him, stared at him, and watched his performance.