This war has lasted 100 days and brought 10 serious consequences to the world!

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This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin

Unconsciously, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been 100 days. In 100 days, thousands of fresh people fell into a pool of blood, and one prosperous city after another fell into ruins. The world has witnessed great but irreversible changes.

The fighting is still going on. I won’t say more about the details and progress. At the beginning of the war, many Western leaders said that this was the darkest day in Europe after World War II. Maybe. But to be more precise, this was the second time. The first time was the 1998 air raid on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which opened the magic box of war. Putin is just following suit and making more use of it.

Now, when we discuss the causes of the war, to tell the truth, it is a little aesthetic fatigue. The key is how to end it. But frankly speaking, there is still no hope, but the consequences are quite serious, affecting the whole world, including us far away from the battlefield.

If we say that on the first day of the outbreak of the war, many consequences are just speculation, but 1

00 days later, the serious consequences are very clear, at least 10.

The first consequence is the drastic change of world geopolitics.

Russia and Ukraine were originally brotherly countries, but for at least a few decades, the brothers could not talk about it. It must be a feud. Subtle changes are taking place in Russia’s relations with Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East.

What is more crucial is Russia’s relations with the United States and the West as a whole.

To be realistic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is more serious than the consequences of the 9 / 11 incident. The war is still burning, NATO continues to expand eastward, and the United States is still delivering offensive weapons to Ukraine. Russia is ruthless, and the United States will fight with Russia until the last Ukrainian.

Because of the war in Ukraine, European energy was seriously involved. The United States had to make strategic adjustments, send more troops to Europe and concentrate more resources on sanctions against Russia.

At least in the short term, the number one enemy of the West must be Russia

Ross. Of course, let’s not be too optimistic. Western politicians say that they will change. We can’t rule out reaching a tacit agreement with Russia after a period of time, sacrificing Ukraine, and then turning around again to deal with the big powers in the East.

The second consequence is the tragic energy crisis.

Just two years ago, the oil price fell to a negative number (don’t believe it, it’s true). At that time, many experts believed that the oil price might never be higher. But two years later, oil prices soared to more than $100.

Therefore, do not superstitious experts.

The whole world is complaining incessantly. One of the most important reasons why Biden’s support rate has fallen again and again is that Americans are strongly dissatisfied with inflation.

This morning, look at the warning of the International Energy Agency: the world will fall into an oil crisis that is equivalent to or even more than that of the 1970s.

Moreover, not only the oil crisis, but also the natural gas crisis and power crisis. And the crisis lasted longer than ever before.

This is a crisis for which the world is unprepared. It also has a serious impact on China. You see, it’s summer now. The world may have an unprecedented heat, and then a bone chilling winter.


Third, the cruel food crisis.

I won’t say much. Just look at the cover of the economist and you will know: at first glance, it’s ears of wheat, but at a closer look, it’s skeletons

Whether this kind of exaggeration is appropriate or not, let us leave it alone. But it is an indisputable fact that a worldwide food crisis is coming.

The world food program has warned that about 300million people around the world may face famine this year.

It’s hard to imagine that the world suffered from severe famine in the 1920s. History has played a big joke on mankind, but we really can’t laugh.

The fourth consequence is a more serious social crisis.

The consequences of energy crisis and food crisis are often political crisis and social crisis, as well as regime subversion and head landing.

In Sri Lanka, the prime minister was forced to resign after a nationwide riot caused by soaring prices; In the Middle East, turbulence has occurred in many countries, and a greater crisis is imminent; In some parts of Africa, mills have run out of wheat.

I won’t say much about this. A butterfly in the Amazon tropical rain forest flapped its wings a few times, and a tornado blew up in many parts of the world.

Consequence five, a more dangerous world.

Different people have different opinions, but what we see is one more ominous signal after another.

The situation on the peninsula has reached a new level, and Japan is ready to move. That is our doorstep. The situation in the Middle East is also intensifying. Turkey immediately starts a new military operation, which is the center of the world’s oil.

Not to mention the West’s all-out strangulation of Russia, it will be a long-term throat cutting battle. Russia’s strategy of struggle is certainly ruthless. It is no wonder that German Chancellor Scholz has repeatedly warned that it would not really lead to the Third World War.

Let us not forget that sentence: once Russia feels that it has nothing to lose, what will happen to the world?


Sixth, the west is also tearing apart.

There are tears everywhere. The United States requires the world to stand in line. Do you support Russia or the west.

For many countries, this is not an option. They are in a dilemma. They do not want to offend Russia or the western world.

In fact, within the west, is there no tear?

Eastern Europe is called the new Europe. The leaders of neighboring countries rushed to Ukraine to express their support for Zelensky. It is intriguing that the leaders of Germany and France have not yet gone to Kiev and have had many dialogues with Putin.

Germany and France don’t like Putin either, but Germany and France really don’t want to fight. Because they know very well that Europe will undoubtedly be a big loser if it goes on like this.

However, the United States and Britain are different. They seem not to want to fight, but they are more willing to see the EU and Russia weaken each other. There is no lack of happiness in Britain. After brexit, we are worried about the future. As soon as the war in Ukraine breaks out, the sharp rise in oil prices is good for North Sea oil; Europe is in a hurry. London will be the first choice for capital transfer in Europe. Britain is the big winner.

As time goes on, the United States and Britain can continue to sing high-profile and wave big sticks, but France and Germany must consider their own security and economic interests. Russia is not a fuel-efficient lamp, let alone forget to send some nourishment to the differences between Europe and the United States in time.

You see, in the end, the United States and Europe have fierce differences on the Russian issue, and Russia has a breathing space.

Consequence 7: the mentality of the world is changing.

The Ukrainian mentality is changing. I remember that after the war broke out, Ukrainian President Zelensky talked with the Austrian prime minister by telephone and told the latter: “I don’t know how long my country will last.”

But now, with the full support of the west, Ukraine, although the battlefield situation is still difficult, has also shown its combat effectiveness and vowed to drive Russian troops out of their homes.

Russian mentality is also changing. Originally, Kiev was besieged and even the whole Ukraine was captured. Now we are more attacking in Donbas and pay more attention to advancing step by step rather than taking risks.

I believe that after this battle, the world’s attitude towards Ukraine and Russia will also change significantly.

What about the Western mentality?

The United States may be more proud, so it is now bolder and bolder to send more offensive weapons to Ukraine; Some Eastern European countries are more cautious, and some are more afraid of and hostile to Russia.

In fact, Han Feizi once had a maxim: those who are small but not inferior, those who are weak but not afraid of the strong, those who are rude and bully their neighbors, and those who are greedy and clumsy can die.

This certainly does not conform to historical justice, but this is the cruel reality of jungle politics. Especially in Eastern European countries, the feeling is even stronger.


Consequence 8: the wall foundation of the US dollar Empire cracked.

On the surface, the US dollar is still at its peak and cannot be shaken. But the wall base of the dollar empire is cracking.

Very simply, the hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian foreign exchange reserves were withheld by the West because they were dollars. Other countries will inevitably worry, is my dollar still safe?

The cruel facts have broken many people’s dreams. Globalization has become the weapon of Western sanctions, and the US dollar has become a dangerous chip. “Science knows no borders” and “art knows no borders”; It is said that “private property is sacred and inviolable” and “wind and rain can enter, but the king cannot enter”; What about freedom of speech and the spirit of contract?

It’s all gone.

The Russian Central Bank also specially reminded the world’s central banks yesterday that they must be vigilant against the risks of using the US dollar and the euro as reserve assets.

Consequence 9: there will be changes in the future war.

On the first day, at least, the Russian army attacked cities and territories. It felt like another lightning battle. At that time, many people lamented that the Russian army rushed to Kiev before I could finish the nucleic acid

However, as you can see, the Russian army held back and suffered heavy losses. Even a large number of tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed by the Ukrainian army

Of course, the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses.

This is not a modern war in our imagination. It is more like a traditional war in which tanks and artillery play the leading role. It is also a tug of war, throat cutting war and urban street warfare.

But we still see something different. In the pre war cyber war and information war, the United States has admitted that it did send people to participate in the cyber attack against Russia; In the war, the public opinion war and the cognitive war are still going on. Of course, Russia is at a disadvantage; And the application of new weapons in war, especially the application of unmanned aerial vehicles and the power of nuclear deterrence

This war will change the military layout of many countries and the shape of future wars.


Consequence 10: the scourge that cannot be ignored leads East.

I remember when the war began, I said in an article that the world saw the rarity and value of China. Quite simply, is there a big country in the world that abides by international rules more than China? Is there a big country that respects the sovereignty of other countries more than China? Is there a big country that values peace more than China?

The answer is just two words: no!

As far as the west is concerned, China will not export revolution, hunger and poverty, and trouble you. What else can we say.

But I am still too optimistic.

We have seen that around the Sino Russian relations, the US has discredited various kinds of sieges and even spread rumors that China has provided military assistance to Russia; What makes people more angry is that the United States is constantly picking up trouble around China and even breaking its promise on the Taiwan Strait issue. Biden even “made a slip of the tongue” and said that he would help prevent Taiwan

Various signs show that the United States is indeed stepping up its efforts to deal with Russia, but the focus of the United States has never deviated from China. The United States believes that China is the number one enemy.

The environment is dangerous. In the past 100 days, China has also experienced a lot and will never forget many things. This requires China to be more calm and sober, never be proud and never toss about.

The same sentence: a soldier is a murderous weapon, and a saint has no choice but to do it.

The victory of war will never be forever. As time goes on, countries that launch and win wrong wars will often defeat themselves. There are too many lessons in this world.

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