Source: a bad potato (id:iamhtd)
Our generation has watched Japan step by step from its peak to its decline.
When I was a child, I was surrounded by Japanese culture. When I turned on the TV, there were women volleyball players, Xuening, Astro Boy, smart Yixiu. When I was older, there were Tokyo love stories, 101 courtship proposals, Saint fighter, and seven dragon beads. At that time, the teacher was still talking about the competition in the summer camp when reading the newspaper, and everywhere was shouting to be friendly from generation to generation
Why did Japan hope to be friendly from generation to generation at that time? Why did it change its temper and not want to invade China?
At that time, the most influential and popular electronic products were almost all Japanese, whether they were televisions, video recorders, stereos, refrigerators, washing machines, cameras Various electronic equipment, including Japanese cars, Japanese maglev, Japanese components, engineering equipment, elevators Made in Japan is everywhere, representing high quality. I remember when I was at school, it was a great honor to have a Sony Walkman in Japan
Japanese products are very expensive. I remember that in 2012, Japanese mobile phones were still in the Chinese market. Sony, Panasonic and others sold well, although it was the last afterglow at this time.
The huge Chinese consumer market is open to Japan, and Japan certainly hopes to be friendly from generation to generation.
But up to now, none of the above!
Why not? Have a guess………
What many people can barely remember is only AOI
Four years ago, many Chinese tourists liked to go to Japan to scavenge for goods, which saved Japan’s economy. 8million Chinese tourists contributed a huge GDP of 1.8 trillion yen a year to Japan.
Then the epidemic broke out. On the eve of the Olympic Games, thinking that tens of millions of Chinese tourists would go to Japan to scavenge goods, Abe was extremely pious, flattered and flattered his customers, and forcefully wrote that mountains and rivers are different from each other into mountains and rivers are different from each other
I don’t want Japan to be swallowed up by the epidemic, the tourism industry is completely interrupted, and the Japanese economy is in a mess. The Olympic Games have lost a lot. Once Japan settles its accounts, it seems that it will be difficult to make a profit from China.
Since I can’t make any money, I’ll show my cards. Who wants to be friendly with you from generation to generation?
I want to contain China and help defend Taiwan
Why did Japan decline?
Of course, the first reason is that Japan is not a sovereign country, but a colony of the United States. It is inevitable that Japan will be harvested by the United States, which has brought about the loss of 40 years. This is the main reason, but there is another important reason, which is clear from what I just wrote.
Thirty years ago, why were many Chinese willing to go to Japan rather than smuggle? The so-called “one month’s work in Japan, one can buy a suite in Shanghai”?
Because the huge number of industries and consumer goods that I just mentioned are almost controlled by Japan. Japanese products sell well all over the world. How can they not be rich with the huge sales created by a population of 100 million.
Of course, there have been 20 glorious years.
But today, in all the above areas, there is no more Japan.
One by one, industries have disappeared and have been eroded. How can Japan not decline? Now these products are still selling well in the world, but they have nothing to do with Japan.
Over the past 30 years, Japan’s industrial position has been continuously lost
Now, there is the last consumer industry that has some influence in the world.
Automobile, this is Japan’s last position.
The automobile industry has always been the largest economic pillar industry in Japan. The entire automobile industry accounts for 40% of Japan’s industrial output value and 8% of Japan’s total economic volume.
Once lost, Japan’s industry will suffer a fatal blow!
For Japan, which depends on import and export, the automobile industry supports half of its exports. Japan is the world’s largest automobile exporter, with an annual export volume of 3.82 million vehicles, creating a huge income of 4.5 trillion yen, which is much higher than the 2.3 million vehicles of Germany, the second.
Not only exports, but also the domestic economy.
The automobile industry has supported tens of thousands of Japanese enterprises and provided 5.3 million jobs in Japan, accounting for 10% of Japan’s working population!
It can be said that once the auto industry declines, the Japanese economy will fall into chaos, and the decline will become inevitable.
But how long can Japan’s auto industry thrive?
In 2000, Japan exported 4.72 million cars and China 17000;
In 2010, Japan exported 4.83 million vehicles and China 540000 vehicles;
In 2015, Japan exported 4.42 million vehicles and China 750000 vehicles;
In 2021, Japan exported 3.82 million vehicles and China 2.01 million vehicles;
In the first five months of 2021, Japan exported 1.27 million cars and China exported 1.08 million cars!
It has soared from only 0.3% of Japan’s 20 years ago to 76% of Japan’s today, and continues to advance with a strong growth rate every year.
What are the main brands? Where does the exit go?
From the data of May alone, let’s first look at the traditional automobile enterprises. SAIC ranked first in overseas market sales, reaching 86000 vehicles, an increase of 97% year-on-year. SAIC’s own brand has ranked among the top 10 single brand sales in 18 countries around the world, including Australia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. In the European market, the monthly sales volume of SAIC’s own brands increased by more than 200% year-on-year.
Chery exported 27400 vehicles in May. From January to may, Chery group exported 112400 vehicles in total, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, setting a new record in the same period in history. Chery automobile products are widely popular in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Chile, the Philippines, Peru and other countries.
In May, Geely sold 15000 vehicles in overseas market, ranking third.
From January to April 2022, the top ten countries in terms of China’s automobile commodity export value are the United States, Mexico, Japan, Belgium, Russia, South Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia and Saudi Arabia.
Second, but also the most important in the future, the export of new energy vehicles accounts for more than half of the world, and China can definitely be said to ride the dust!
In May, the export of new energy vehicles was about 45000, accounting for 20%; Tesla exports about 22000 vehicles, accounting for 10% and 50% of new energy vehicles.
However, some people here will certainly say that Tesla is not Chinese.
Here are two points:
First, except that Tesla’s brand is not Chinese, almost all body parts are made in China. The following figure shows Tesla’s supply chain list.
Tesla’s localization is no longer a secret. In the supply chain list, except for several foreign enterprises such as Ti, the rest are Chinese enterprises.
Tesla’s goal of activating the silver carp effect of China’s electric vehicle industry has also been achieved more than expected, and finally promoted the comprehensive upgrading of the domestic electric vehicle industry chain.
On the other hand, because of China’s perfect supply chain, Tesla can obtain the best opportunity to expand to the global market, and the two will be deeply integrated in the future.
Otherwise, it will be as difficult as Tesla’s German factory.
Second, is Tesla important in China?
When you buy some brands, you think they are Chinese. It really seems that they are also Chinese. As a result, some capitalists receive your money to give concessions and subsidies to Americans, comfort the U.S. military, buy villas in the United States, and donate money to Harvard. The black sheep also insult the martyrs
So, as long as a brand takes root in China, is this very important?
Looking back to Japan, today’s Japanese debt is on the verge of collapse. Russia has forgotten that it is highly dependent on imported energy. It is predicted that Japan’s automobile export this year will hardly exceed 3.3 million, while China’s conservative prediction this year is that it will exceed 2.3 million.
In other words, from 2001 to today:
Japan’s automobile export fell by 27%, while China’s automobile export increased by 135 times!
Japan’s lost share will have nothing to do with it in the future.
This is not the key point. The key point is that Japan has no layout and no future in the field of new energy in the future.
In 2021, compared with 2019, the global new energy vehicles increased by three times, reaching 6.6 million. China’s automobile production accounts for 53% of the global market, while Japan has almost no Japan cannot be found on the track of new energy vehicles.
Why is there no development of new energy vehicles in Japan?
First of all, Japan mistook the technology tree. Most countries in the world choose to use batteries as the main power source of new energy vehicles, but Japan has chosen hydrogen energy as the power source, which has led to the failure to successfully develop qualified hydrogen batteries.
Secondly, both Toyota and Honda are obsessed with past success, have no motivation for innovation, and it is difficult to turn around.
Just as Japan has not produced an influential Internet enterprise
Previously, Toyota and Honda had a certain position in the field of fuel vehicles, or hybrid vehicles. Now, however, Japanese car companies can only launch a new energy vehicle for about 3 years or even longer
Today, it can be said that China’s electric vehicles are undoubtedly the first in the world, and the industrial chain is becoming more and more perfect. China has complete independent design and independent research and development capabilities for key materials and core technologies in new energy vehicles, such as batteries, motors, electronic control systems, etc. for example, in the battery field, China has an industry giant represented by BYD blade batteries and lithium batteries in Ningde era, which is among the top10 battery enterprises in the world, There are seven Chinese enterprises, which are absolutely their own to fight the world.
With the arrival of the low-carbon era, the market share of new energy vehicles will only be higher and higher in the future.
In other words, in the field of traditional automobiles, we are gradually eroding Japan’s share.
In the field of new energy vehicles, Japan can only stare at it, but it can’t catch up with it
Once Japan loses its core industrial pillar, what will its future be like?
However, this scene is almost inevitable, and mobile phones, televisions, refrigerators, elevators, high-speed railways And so on. All industries will repeat the same mistakes. There will be no suspense in the future.
Today, in the face of the Fed’s interest rate hike, Japan is in a dilemma.
Raise interest rates? The national debt with a GDP of 66% is higher than that of Greece at the time of bankruptcy. How about raising interest rates?
The interest rate hike will face the difficult interest of its own Tianliang bonds, which will immediately collapse the Japanese financial market.
Therefore, Japan can only slowly choose to continue easing and watch the sharp fall of the yen. At the juncture of the depreciation of the yen, Japan’s import volume increased by 33.3% year-on-year. Among them, almost all energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and so on depend on imports, so Japan has to import sky high prices of oil in tears.
For 10 consecutive months of trade deficit, Japan is in danger.
The global air force, led by Wall Street, is ready to go.
In fact, this is not the most important thing for Japan, because as long as leeks are able to grow, even if they are harvested by the United States, Japan will knock out its teeth and swallow them with blood, and give the wealth to the United States before becoming rich again.
But the problem is that the United States has reaped Japan’s wealth, while other countries continue to nibble at Japan’s industry, making Japan lose its ability to create wealth!
Leeks can not grow out. The automobile industry is already the last position in Japan!
Can you hold it?
Recently, there is an interesting question. Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. Will famine break out in case of an overall economic recession?
The Japanese believe that it is impossible for a country with Western-style democracy to have a famine.
They forgot the identity of Japan, the colony of the United States.
Among the world’s largest famines, Britain’s Ireland and Britain’s British India all broke out famines and starved millions of people. Is Japan higher than them?
Even if the United States is really the crown prince of Japan rather than its own dog, the elite must have forgotten that in the Great Depression era, the United States was so rich in food. According to records, millions of people died abnormally in the United States from 1929 to 1933, and tens of millions of people lived like animals. Every evening, they took advantage of the garbage cans in the city to find other people to eat leftovers to fill their stomachs, In the streets of the United States, a piece of black bread can become the object of people’s wanton looting. After all, this piece of bread represents a chance to live.
Can the United States kiss Japan more than the United States?
We always maintain the red line of cultivated land. Are we too idle to do anything?
Japan’s decline in the future is the general trend, but the elite Japanese are unwilling to accept it.
Just like 25 years ago, when someone proposed at the Tianya forum that China would surpass Japan in 2030, which is 35 years, 95% of the people thought it was impossible. The elite Japanese thought it was ridiculous and ridiculed. As a result, China surpassed Japan in just 11 years.
Obama said that if the Chinese people live an American life, we can only eat grass.
In fact, what Obama said is reasonable, because China is constantly striving for industrial upgrading. What Obama said about us is the US western group.
Because what is a developed country? Developed countries are relative to developing countries. If China with 1.4 billion people becomes a developed country, will the western developed countries with 1.1 billion people still live the same life as before?
I’m afraid not.
However, the first one to eat grass must not be the United States, but the most likely one is Japan.
Although the manufacturing industry in Europe will also be impacted to a certain extent, there are still luxury goods in Europe that can last for a period of time. Although Europe is poor, it somehow has a little energy, but Japan has nothing
The future of Japan can only be said to be bleak. What should Japan do in the face of the overall economic decline and the brink of the collapse of Japanese debt?
More than 80 years ago, in the face of the great depression, Japan made a choice, that is, to take risks to rob China.
Today, Japan seems to want to do the same thing, so it jumps higher than the United States, and it has more ambition to contain China
We sincerely hope that Japan will continue to die and make the same choice as it did 80 years ago!
We are all looking forward to this day!
Because 70 years ago, we defeated the United States, but defeated Japan, and Japan was unwilling to lose, and we were unwilling to win. If we only beat Japan economically, it will still be difficult for us
Then Japan should continue to do so. Don’t stop!