This winter is a little cold, and Germany is afraid of recession!

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Author: Xiao Er Pang source: wechat official account: think tank Bai Xiaosheng

This time of year is the hottest month in Germany. After work, Germans like to drink beer and eat barbecue in their garden.

Although the word “be prepared for danger in times of peace” is not very applicable to Germans, they can’t sit still no matter how big they are seeing the rising energy prices.

The Germans are already preparing for the winter.

Now most people do not care much about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The initial indignation and worry have been almost consumed. Recently, newspapers and the Internet have occasionally published several reports on the war, most of which are about the rise of energy prices.

Almost half of German households rely on natural gas for heating. The shortage of natural gas and the sharp rise in prices have caused a headache for Germans.

Many people are rushing to buy electric heaters and electric blankets. They even kindly advised me to buy some to cope with the heating problem this winter.

There are also people who rely on fireplaces to keep warm in winter. They are hoarding wood, and they see a cart of wood piled up half the garden.

In order to rescue German energy companies that bought natural gas at an extremely high price, the German government began to levy a natural gas surcharge in October, allocating the “additional cost” to consumers.

According to the natural gas price in early August, the natural gas bill of a family of four is 3568 euros; According to the price of the same period last year, the cost is only 1258 euros. In October, additional taxes will be levied on households using natural gas for heating, and the fees will rise.


Natural gas price trend chart

At the same time, the American business of exporting natural gas to Europe across the Atlantic Ocean was in a mess, and transporting natural gas from the United States to Europe for sale became a lucrative business.

How much money this business makes is not about profit percentage, but profit multiples.

When a ship filled with natural gas in the United States was transported to Europe at a price of about 60 million US dollars, it became 275 million US dollars.

The huge price difference has increased the export of natural gas from the United States to Europe. In August, nearly 60% of America’s LNG exports (115 thousand tons per day) went to Europe.

There was no way. Russia reduced the supply of Beixi No. 1, and Beixi No. 2 was closed by the Germans.

Let’s not say whether people will be frozen to death in winter. At present, industrial gas has become a problem. What can we do without import? Why did the German Chancellor and vice chancellor go to Canada a few days ago not to ask for energy.

As a matter of fact, it’s hard to be far away.

Hehe, no matter how expensive the price of natural gas is, it can not affect political correctness.

If natural gas is expensive, is the electricity price cheap?

In recent weeks, the electricity futures price, which is the benchmark of the German and European electricity markets, has been constantly breaking records. Last month, it broke the 400 Euro mark per megawatt hour. Last week, it broke the 500 Euro mark for the first time. On August 22, the electricity futures price soared from 600 euro per megawatt hour to 700 euro, becoming the largest increase in a single day since records.

It should be noted that the price of electricity futures in Germany in the same period last year was only 23 euros per megawatt hour, which increased more than 30 times in one year. Those Germans who have stocked up with electric heaters and electric blankets may be fooled. It’s not cheaper than heating with gas.

At present, three nuclear power plants in Germany are still in operation, and it is planned to close them all by the end of this year. Some people have proposed that the German government extend the delay in closing nuclear power plants.

However, habek, a green party politician sitting in the position of German economy minister, made it clear that he would not extend the service life of the nuclear power plant.

No matter how expensive the electricity price is, it can not affect political correctness.

There is no double blessing and no single curse. European countries, including Germany, are experiencing severe drought. The water of the Rhine River is almost dry. The Rhine River is an important transportation route for raw materials such as grain, chemicals, minerals, coal and heating oil. The drought has seriously affected not only hydropower, but also shipping and crops.


The Rhine River, whose water level has dropped sharply

The local governments of Cologne and Bonn warned citizens not to take a walk along the banks of the Rhine River, because many bomb remains from World War I and World War II were exposed along the river.

In addition, hunger stone was also found in the Yibei river. According to tradition, once the “hunger stone” was found, local residents would engrave the year of that time on the stone.

Dozens of “hunger stones” were found on the exposed banks of the Yibei river. The earliest recorded year can be traced back to 1417. One of the stones is also engraved with the following words: “if you see me, cry!”


Weeping stone

As I mentioned earlier, the old man who has stored half of the garden wood is rich in life experience. He should be glad to have made an early move, because there is a shortage of firewood in Germany. Many firewood companies have decided to limit sales in response to the panic buying tide: each customer can only get three pallets of firewood.

The German federal government, like a joke, proposed a draft to strictly limit the maximum temperature of offices in public buildings in winter.

Light physical work mainly based on sitting office, 19 degrees;

Light physical work, mainly standing and walking, 18 degrees;

Moderate physical work, mainly sitting, 18 degrees;

Moderate physical labor, mainly standing and walking, 16 degrees;

High physical labor, 12 degrees.

Fortunately, hospitals, schools and kindergartens are excluded. Otherwise, we’ll just wait to throw eggs.

The leader of the Green Party and the governor of Bavaria, crazman, even suggested: “in fact, people do not have to take a bath all the time. Towels are also a very useful invention.”

Alas, brain is a good thing.

At the same time, the euro continued to fall, falling below 1:1 against the US dollar and falling below 6.8 against the RMB.

The energy crisis triggered inflation, which was superimposed on the economic recession. The fear of economic recession led investors to avoid the euro, which led to the continued decline of the euro.

Whether Germany’s economy will fall into a long-term recession depends on whether Germany can survive this winter.

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