Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
Will there really be a world war?
This problem was a joke in the past, because no one would think that there would be a third world war when there was a strategic nuclear balance between major powers. However, it is different now. This is a very serious topic, because many people have felt the risk of World War. Many comrades in arms asked Zhanhao what he thought of this.
In fact, if you remember, Zhanhao immediately analyzed and judged the current world situation after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war. One of the most important points is that the risk of the outbreak of the new cold war is already very high, and the probability has even exceeded 50%. If the probability of the outbreak of the new cold war before the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war is still very low, then the probability of the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war is more than 50%. At that time, few people held this view, and now everyone has gradually accepted this view, because the situation and risks are moving in the direction of the new cold war, and the United States has been making every effort to promote it. The “strategic concept” document of the NATO summit lists China as a NATO challenge, which is to promote China to become the second Russia.
The next intention of the United States is, on the one hand, to further divide China and Europe, create contradictions and antagonisms between China and Europe, then pull NATO to the Indo Pacific region, and further install Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other countries into the greater NATO, use the Indo Pacific Strategy to contain China, and create conflicts and antagonisms on the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the China India border. As long as China and Europe become more and more estranged economically and politically opposed, the probability of the outbreak of the new cold war will be higher and higher if wars, conflicts and oppositions break out in sensitive areas around China. Now, the whole trend is still moving towards the new cold war. Although China is trying to hedge this trend, it has not stopped it.
Just like some people say, why should we buy Airbus when we have C919? In fact, in terms of practical conditions, the production capacity of C919 is far from enough to meet the demand, so it is either Airbus or Boeing; In terms of politics, this is to expand the common interests of China and Europe, and use the Chinese market to stabilize China EU trade and investment. In fact, Airbus has just built a research and development center in China. More importantly, we haven’t bought Boeing for more than five years. These orders have been given to Airbus. In addition to the recent 292 aircraft, more than 80 aircraft were also given to Airbus in April this year. China uses the Chinese market to expand the common interests of China and Europe, and cedes part of the interests belonging to the United States to the European Union. This is a clever trick to pull a lot of weight. Objectively, it is also a measure to try to hedge the outbreak of the new cold war.
For the United States, if it wants to detonate the new cold war, it will at least detonate the military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, including the conflict in the South China Sea and the conflict in the East China Sea. However, among these risk points, the risks of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and conflict in the Taiwan Strait are very high.
As for the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, we all know the relationship of friendship and mutual assistance between China and North Korea. Although it is not clearly an ally, it is actually a military alliance. That is to say, if the United States and South Korea invade North Korea, China must be duty bound, not only geographically, but also the Treaty of friendship and mutual assistance between China and North Korea. Therefore, if the conflict between North Korea and South Korea breaks out, the United States must control the intensity, but this is at least a proxy war. If the conflict on the peninsula can trigger confrontation between China and Europe, the United States will certainly promote the operation.
For the Taiwan Strait conflict, the United States has been brewing, that is to say, after the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war, provoking the Taiwan Strait conflict has become the most important point for the United States to further create the China threat theory and create the strategic conflict between China and Europe. One of the purposes of the United States to discredit China and create trouble on the so-called Xinjiang issue, Hong Kong issue and Tibet issue is to create political obstacles between China and the west, so as to promote the complete confrontation between China and the west when conflicts break out in the Taiwan Strait in the future. Now, judging from the arrangement of political figures, South Korea has fostered a Yin Xiyue as president, which can be manipulated; Taiwan, China province of China is governed by Tsai ing Wen, who pursues “Taiwan independence”. These are favorable conditions for the United States.
If the United States continues to push down, the risk of a new cold war will become higher and higher. The only opportunity for the world not to have a new cold war in the future is that the common interests of China and Europe finally block the new cold war plan of the United States. If the common interests of China and the EU are seriously weakened and the confrontation is constantly increasing in the future, the outbreak of the new cold war will be inevitable.
Against the backdrop of the outbreak of the new cold war, three conditions may trigger the Third World War:
1? War broke out on the Korean Peninsula
The United States is likely to trigger the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, because China directly acted to detonate the military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and the United States is faced with the dilemma of not acting. If not, China will win Taiwan every minute; The United States risks losing the entire Western Pacific, which is a great risk. Compared with promoting the Taiwan Strait conflict, the United States may be more inclined to detonate the war on the Korean Peninsula, so the risk of the Korean Peninsula in the next two to three years is very high. Once Yin Xiyue enters the American rhythm, the outbreak of war in North Korea may only be a matter of minutes.
2? Taiwan Strait conflict
The Chinese government does not want to cause trouble, and has always maintained strategic patience. At this stage, the core of China is development. However, China wants stable development, but the United States is not willing, so he wants to choose the opportunity to provoke conflict for the new cold war, but he knows that Taiwan, China’s “strawberry soldiers” of the separatist regime want to fight with the people’s Liberation Army alone is completely hitting the stone with an egg, which is also the fundamental reason why the United States wants to build Taiwan into a thorny “porcupine”. The United States does not want to fight, but faces the situation of having to fight. However, the Taiwan Strait conflict is a move that the United States must take to stimulate the new cold war, which is a major contradiction. However, although the United States is cautious on the Taiwan Strait issue, it will certainly promote the Taiwan Strait conflict for the sake of the new cold war.
3? Japan or Japan and South Korea join NATO
The above two conditions, coupled with the tension in the South China Sea, may trigger a new cold war, but it still cannot reach the level of full-scale war, and it is still a local conflict or proxy war. However, once one condition is established, the possibility of world war will soar.
What conditions are so dangerous? The answer is for Japan or Japan and South Korea to join NATO. As you can see, the fundamental reason why Russia is fighting Ukraine is that Ukraine wants to join NATO. Once Ukraine joins NATO, American nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles will be deployed to eastern Ukraine, which is only a few hundred kilometers away from Moscow, the capital of Russia. Therefore, from the perspective of Russia’s national security, he must control Ukraine geographically, and Putin has no choice.
Then, from the geopolitical situation of Russia and Ukraine, we can deduce the geopolitical situation of Japan and South Korea. NATO is expanding eastward. If Japan and South Korea also want to join NATO, can China and Russia tolerate it? The answer is clear and intolerable. Because if Japan and South Korea join NATO, nuclear missiles will be deployed there. Judging from the current situation of China and Russia, China and Russia will not allow this kind of thing to happen. In other words, if Japan and South Korea join NATO, war will inevitably break out between China, Russia, North Korea and the United States, Japan and South Korea, and there can be no room for detente. Just think, if it is a war in which China, Russia and the United States all participate, is it not a world war?
Therefore, in the view of Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), compared with the past World War was a joke, it has now become a serious problem. Because the United States fooled around, the peace of the world was in danger under the challenge of the United States. China is working for world peace, but the United States has been picking, at the expense of the security interests of other countries, to some extent, this is anti human hegemonism!
There is no doubt that we must be highly vigilant against such risks. At the same time, we must continue to work for world peace and continue to effectively counter the hegemonic acts of the United States!