Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
Some old comrades in arms should remember that Zhanhao had a very clear view many years ago, that is, during the Obama period: it is the biggest strategic mistake of the United States to be an enemy of China, which will surely accelerate the collapse of the global hegemony of the United States.
In the early 1991’s, marked by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States finally gained global hegemony after more than 40 years of cold war. However, the United States has not been able to maintain its hegemony for too long. As Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) judged many years ago, marked by China’s showdown with the United States in Alaska in 2021, which clearly told the United States that it was “not qualified to talk to China from the position of strength”, the global hegemony of the United States has collapsed.
The collapse of us global hegemony has three obvious characteristics:
1? The United States is unable to subdue a country with all its strength and has to restart the new cold war plan
American global hegemony began with the end of the cold war and finally tried to restart the new cold war. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war, the United States became the global hegemon with the prestige of the Iraq war.
In 2021, the Biden administration abandoned the trump administration’s trade war with China, which declared that the United States had completely failed to subdue a country with all its power, and even could not subdue a Chinese technology company Huawei with all its power, which also completely showed that the United States had lost its strength to maintain global hegemony. Based on this, in order to maintain global hegemony, the United States had to restart the new cold war plan. Marked by the full launch of the plan, the United States began to promote the continuation of global hegemonic control by ensuring the basis of its western hegemony. However, marked by the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the United States in Alaska on march18,2021, it announced the end of the collapse of American global hegemony.
The complete failure of the US trade war with China has proved that the economic strength of China and the United States is no longer equal to each other, and the United States has tried its best to contain China. In order to maintain global hegemony, the United States tries to stabilize the basic position of the west by controlling the whole west and creating a new cold war, and then regains global hegemony by comprehensively containing China, Russia and other countries militarily and economically. The United States has reduced from unilateralism to relying on its allies to promote the new cold war in order to maintain its status. Where is the ability of global hegemony?
2? China and Russia have had a complete showdown with the United States
The United States’ loss of global hegemony is reflected in the result of the game between countries, which can be seen from the relationship between the two countries and the United States. On march18,2021, China told the United States that “it is not qualified to talk to China from the perspective of strength”. Its connotation is that the United States is not stronger than me. China will no longer recognize American hegemony and will no longer let the United States enjoy the benefits of hegemony over China. On this point, we can see the leopard from a detail of the game between China and the United States since Biden took office.
Since taking office, Biden has been trying to use the tariff imposed by the trump administration on Chinese goods exported to the United States as a bargaining chip to exchange for some benefits from China. However, unlike more than a year ago, when trump was able to exchange a little agricultural products and oil and gas orders from China, Biden can no longer obtain any extra benefits. This is the fundamental reason why the United States has not completely lifted the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the United States, but has to lift it in batches. China and the United States have a showdown. The United States no longer has a “power position” in the face of China, and its global hegemony based on China’s core circle has collapsed.
After the showdown between China and the United States, Russia also thoroughly showdown with the United States in 2022 under the coercion of the United States. Although the Russian Ukrainian war was deliberately provoked by the United States, and it was also a plot of the United States in the past few years. At the same time, the United States also has its own clear purpose – to unite with its European allies to suppress China so as to create a new global cold war, the process and future outcome of the Russian Ukrainian war are bound to face the United States.
Since November last year, Zhanhao has continuously analyzed in his article that the Russian Ukrainian war is bound to break out because Putin has no choice. The Russian Ukrainian war is not only a complete showdown and counterattack against the pressure of the United States and the west, but also an active counterattack accumulated for many years. In this counterattack, Putin’s goal is definitely not to teach Ukraine a lesson or win the Donbas region, but to win at least the sea port along the whole Black Sea coast of Ukraine and at least one third of the territory in the east of Ukraine. The geostrategic goal is to control the whole Ukraine, so as to form a strategic buffer with NATO, or form a geostrategic offensive trend against NATO.
The whole world has basically underestimated Putin’s strategic intention and war will. Many people think that Russia is in the quagmire of war with their own conjectures. However, in fact, after Putin could not win the Ukrainian capital in a short time, he adjusted his strategy, ate it one mouthful at a time, and began to prepare for a long-term fight. It was originally estimated that this war would last at least three months to six months, but now it is difficult to complete it within six months if we want to win at least half of Ukraine. However, Russia’s strategic objectives will not change, so the war will continue until the Russian army can no longer advance in western Ukraine.
The complete showdown between Russia and the United States in Ukraine, and the complete disappearance of Ukraine in the current sense with the war in the future, the United States will lose its global strategic credibility. Ukraine, which followed the United States, lost its country after Russia completely showdown with the United States. The impact of this event will be long-term and strategic. Of course, it also means that the United States has lost its global hegemony. How can the younger brother of a hegemonic country be split and destroyed?
3? The United States has lost its position as the center of the global economy
The United States has not been a major trading country in the world for a long time. Although the gap between the United States and China in terms of Global trade volume is not large, the trade throughput has been completely different. The cargo throughput of one of the busiest ports in China is larger than the total throughput of the top 10 ports in the United States, which has shown the problem.
The United States is not only no longer the global trade center, but also the world’s largest consumer market. China has replaced the United States as the world’s largest consumer market, and China is still the world’s largest consumer potential market. In addition, China is the world’s largest manufacturing country, so objectively, the United States is no longer the global economic center.
At present, the global financial investment center is still in the United States, and the United States still dominates in science and technology, but the United States is no longer the center of trade, manufacturing, logistics, etc., so objectively, the United States is no longer the global economic center, and has lost its absolute control over the global economy.
Another important feature of the United States’ loss of absolute control over the global economy is that over the past year, the United States has experienced hyperinflation. The CPI has continued to exceed 8% and the real price level has risen by more than 20%. In sharp contrast to the United States, China has had a very low inflation rate over the past year. In addition, unlike before 2008, when the inflation rate in the United States and the West was low and the inflation rate in other countries was very high, the current situation is that the inflation rate in the United States and the west is particularly high, and the global inflation rate is not too high compared with the past. All this fully shows that although the US dollar is still the leading currency in the world, the United States has lost the pricing power of global commodities.
The so-called economic foundation determines the superstructure. The United States is no longer the global economic center. In fact, there is no foundation for global hegemony. Why does the United States try every means to interrupt the global supply chain system centered on China? He wants to interrupt China’s economic development and regain global economic hegemony.
The United States no longer has global hegemony, but it still has local hegemony. For example, the United States still has strong control over the west, the United States still leads in the fields of science, technology and military, and the U.S. financial investment hegemony… The United States still has many advantages. So far, it is still a hegemonic country and still leads the world as a whole. Under such circumstances, if the United States adjusts its national strategy from pursuing global hegemony to pursuing global leadership and continues to play the role of global leader, China will never be an enemy of the United States.
What China pursues is national rejuvenation and happiness for the Chinese people. China only pursues equality and mutual benefit with other countries in the world. China does not seek hegemony at all, let alone challenge American hegemony. In this way, the United States can certainly continue to play the role of global leader for many years, but it can no longer engage in global hegemony as it did in the past.
However, the United States has now chosen the wrong big power strategy. Under the condition that China cannot be defeated with all its power, it will continue to use all its power to pull its allies together to suppress China. This strategy is bound to be wrong. According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), this strategy of the United States is bound to fail, which will eventually lead to the collapse of the United States.
Zhanhao’s judgment has three bases:
1? China is a big market with 1.4 billion people and has the most powerful manufacturing capacity in the world
The population of the whole west is not as large as that of China. China is a big market with 1.4 billion people. China is the world’s largest industrial country and has the world’s most powerful and complete manufacturing capacity. This is the fundamental reason why China can withstand the continuous pressure of the United States and make continuous progress economically. In the past, economically, China was more dependent on the western market led by the United States. Now, it is half the weight. Relatively speaking, the United States and the West are more dependent on made in China.
In this case, China, a big market with 1.4 billion people and the world’s most powerful and complete manufacturing capacity, has a capacity to absorb the global economy that the United States can not imagine. Apart from other things, who can really break away from China’s economy in China’s neighboring countries? Among the 7.6 billion people in the world, at most 1billion people are really willing to fight China with the United States, while the other more than 6billion people are not willing to fight China. How can the United States curb China’s development? How can we stop China from eventually surpassing the United States in terms of economic scale and comprehensive national strength?
The United States is trying to accomplish an impossible task!
2? The United States is inferior to China in the ultimate war capability, and the U.S. economy cannot support this confrontation
What is the war capability? If it is a nuclear war, China and the United States can destroy each other. Therefore, nuclear war is not an option between China and the United States. We can rule it out for the time being. So what is conventional war fighting? It refers to industrial manufacturing capacity, industrial population, strategic depth, the size of the army and the mobilization capacity of the whole people, and it refers to geo strategy.
So, in terms of the comprehensive capacity of industrial manufacturing, the United States obviously lags far behind China, not to mention the industrial population, and the United States is far behind. In terms of strategic depth, China and the United States are similar. In terms of military size, China is also larger than the United States, and China has no defense burden of global hegemony. China is also much stronger than the United States in terms of the mobilization capacity for the national war. Geographically, China will not fight in North America, but how can the United States continue to supply when fighting near China?
What the United States wants to maintain is global hegemony. In essence, its national strategy is a business; China is different. China is a war of life and death. Therefore, if China and the United States want to fight, the United States will undoubtedly lose, and there can be no second result. Moreover, with the capitalist’s pee, he can’t afford to fight this war! China can do whatever it takes. Can capitalists?
3? The United States cannot make up for the losses caused by its allies’ confrontation with China
The United States now wants to pull its allies against China. In addition to its poor strength, it wants to pass on the cost of confronting China to its allies. The question is, allies should not only bear the cost of U.S. confrontation with China, but also bear the economic losses caused by confrontation with China. Who can afford this business? Why Zhanhao thinks that although the probability of a new cold war has greatly increased, the United States will undoubtedly lose even if it starts a new cold war. That is because China does not seek hegemony and does not deliberately harm the interests of other countries, and the United States cannot make up for the huge losses it has suffered from its allies against China. Who can stand it? Allies want to eat meat with the United States, not drink wind with the United States.
The United States cannot make up for its allies’ economic losses against China. It has to run and starve. How long can the Allies last? Therefore, the new Cold War logic of the United States cannot be continued for a long time. This is why Zhanhao has always stressed that as long as China maintains its strategic determination, the ultimate failure must be the root cause of the United States.
The United States is on the wrong strategic path! In essence, the United States is a capitalist platform. As a result of its confrontation with China, the United States will not only lose its global leadership, but even the basic Western market will be completely out of control. In this case, in order to maintain their own interests, the capitalists will directly divide the United States, concentrate some interests in their own hands, and then concentrate backwardness and poverty in other areas!
The United States always wants to split other countries, but it may eventually split itself!