Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of the official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).
Ten thousand horses are silent
In 2007, Wan Gang, the newly appointed Minister of science and technology of China, looked at the current report on China’s automobile industry and sighed.
Before becoming a minister, Wan Gang was an engineer in the technical development department, a technical manager in the production department and the overall planning department of Audi AG. Among the leaders at the same level, he was a rare automotive expert, and no one knew cars better than him.
However, the current Chinese auto industry has made the auto expert worried.
As we all know, China’s automobile industry started too late. When Henry Ford, Walter Chrysler and David Buick poured into Detroit to start building cars, the Qing government was still struggling in the quagmire of Boxer Indemnity.
After the founding of the people’s Republic of China, although China has built several automobile factories, which can also produce Jiefang, Dongfeng, Hongqi, Shanghai and other cars, it has always been in a state of single product and backward technology. It is great to knock out thousands of cars a year by hand. It is impossible to call it the automobile industry, which is far behind the world level.
So after the reform and opening up, China began to introduce foreign advanced technology, but foreign capital is not engaged in poverty alleviation. Why should we cooperate with you? China can only come up with a later controversial method of “market for technology”, using the huge Chinese market to lure foreign manufacturers to invest in China.
The original intention of this “market for technology” is good. At least in a short period of time, it has met the needs of the domestic market for automobiles. SAIC Volkswagen, Changan Ford, Guangzhou Peugeot and Beijing Hyundai have established one after another. Foreign brands have occupied almost all the markets in China for a long time.
However, the market has been sold out, but the technology has not been changed. After more than ten years, China has been able to produce good automotive glass, automotive interior and automotive paint. However, the three most critical automotive parts – engine, chassis and gearbox – have not made fundamental progress. The reason is very simple. Foreign automobile manufacturers all know the truth of teaching apprentices to starve to death. Who will really teach you?
On the other hand, the domestic manufacturers participating in the joint venture, relying on the assembly mode with supplied materials, have made a lot of money in China’s almost unlimited auto market, and are reluctant to invest in R & D:
It’s easy to make money lying down. Who will bear the responsibility in case of R & D failure?
As a result, automobiles (including parts) are still the second largest item of China’s imported industrial products, second only to semiconductors. On the smiling curve of the whole automobile industry, China is the most tired and earns the least profits. A considerable bonus in the process of industrial rise has become the profits of foreign automobile enterprises.
If it does not change, China’s automobile industry will only become a OEM of foreign manufacturers, and the foreign automobile industry will always become a blood sucking tube inserted in China.
It can’t go on like this.
Wan Gang was engaged in the research of new energy vehicles before he became minister. He was keenly aware that only by developing new energy vehicles can we bypass the technical barriers of developed countries on engines, chassis and gearboxes, and China’s automobile industry has the hope of “overtaking at corners”.
In 2012, the energy saving and new energy vehicle industry plan (2012-2020) of the State Council raised the development of new energy vehicles to a new level. With the encouragement of policies and the stimulation of capital, the sales of new energy vehicles in that year exceeded 10000.
However, the state led new energy automobile industry has no experience at all, and can only explore bit by bit. In the early stage of development, there have also been fish eyes mixed with pearls.
For example, in the early days, many car companies took advantage of the new energy subsidy to find a ready-made model. After the fuel tank was dismantled and replaced with a battery, it became a “self-developed new energy vehicle”, and they could get tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of subsidies when they sold it.
They don’t even have to sell the car. They ask their relatives to sign a contract. The car is “sold” to their employees. Once the contract is signed, they can get subsidies. The car is still in the factory. Even the frame, doors, batteries and tires don’t need to be re produced. They can be recycled when they are removed and installed on a new frame. They can get subsidies repeatedly. It is a “perfect business closed loop”.
What? Overtaking on a curve? There’s money all around the corner. It’s too late to pick it up. What kind of car is it!
After the exposure of this “cheating and compensation” behavior, China’s automobile industry, which was originally called “not striving for success”, completely disappointed the Chinese people and became the target of public criticism.
At that time, there was a hot question: when can Chinese auto brands beat Toyota and Honda?
Someone answered: the core technology of modern automobile industry is still mastered in Europe, America and Japan. I think it will take 20 years to surpass them in automobile technology.
Someone answered: it takes 20 years to have super first-class leaders, 30 years to have excellent leaders, and 50 years in general.
Someone replied that it would be impossible in 30 years. Cars are the last bastion of Japan. The huge investment and profound thinking in automobiles are beyond the reach of Chinese engineers in decades.
There are also some strange people: it is very simple to defeat them. Tomorrow, a new policy will be issued. All Honda and Toyota cars in the Chinese market are not allowed to be licensed. They will be defeated immediately. It should be hopeless to surpass them in terms of the overall performance of the whole vehicle.
There are even auto industry engineers pouring cold water on it: it will be very difficult within a generation in 20 years.
You see, the answer at that time was that almost everyone held a pessimistic and desperate attitude.
It is no wonder that the three major technical barriers in the automotive industry are too high, and the recognition of new energy vehicles is very low. There is a long process to cultivate the market. At that time, many domestic new energy vehicle brands were fleeing the storm because of cheating. The public generally questioned the National Development of new energy vehicle industry, and even had no sense of trust and recognition for domestic new energy vehicles.
When talking about new energy vehicles, the first thing people think of is not convenience, but “mileage anxiety”, “electric dad”, “difficult charging”, “fire” and other negative news.
At that time, no one thought that China’s automobile industry, which was silent at that time, would soar because of the country’s three masterpieces from the upstream to the market.
Lithium war, seizing upstream resources
The word lithium is not unfamiliar to us. Hydrogen, helium, lithium, beryllium, boron, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, fluorine and neon… Almost every child who has attended junior high school will recite it.
Because lithium ranks first, as the lightest metal, it has the highest ability to release electrons at the same mass. It has super electrochemical activity and is the most suitable material for batteries.
So lithium is also called “white oil”.
In the 1990s, Sony of Japan made lithium batteries for the first time, and instantly suspended almost all nickel hydrogen, nickel chromium and alkaline batteries, becoming the standard configuration of personal digital products, which brought a huge shock to the electronics industry and promoted the take-off of the entire Japanese consumer electronics industry.
However, the satisfied Japanese in the digital field did not realize the great potential of lithium batteries in the field of automotive power batteries, but bet on hydrogen energy, while China early identified lithium batteries as the priority development route of China’s new energy automotive industry.
However, lithium in China is not enough.
Like other resources, China has a lot of lithium reserves, ranking fourth in the world, but most of them are distributed in Qinghai and Tibet, with low quality and difficult exploitation.
However, China’s huge demand for lithium resources can’t wait for a moment. After all, as the core of new energy vehicles, lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium battery or future solid-state battery are inseparable from lithium resources. On average, each new energy vehicle consumes 40 kg to 50 kg of lithium carbonate as the raw material of battery.
However, China has more than 3million new energy vehicles every year. According to this calculation, China needs 150000 tons of metal lithium every year. By 2025, the demand for lithium will reach 250000 tons, and China’s domestic supply will reach 120000 tons at most, that is, more than half of its external dependence.
In addition, when the country develops new energy, only by obtaining stable and cheap lithium resource channels can the production cost be reduced to the greatest extent. If we can only buy high priced lithium, how can our cars compete with others?
The lessons of the European energy crisis tell us that when a raw material is more than 50% dependent on foreign countries, the initiative is not in our own hands and can only be slaughtered by others.
What should I do? Overseas mining! If not, take more seats!
From a very early time, China has encouraged enterprises to make overseas layout, and has successively won many projects, such as spodumene in Australia, salt lake in Argentina, clay in Mexico, lithium mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Africa, etc.
Among them, the most dangerous is the “snake swallowing elephant” cross-border sniping of talison acquisition case by China Tianqi lithium and the Argentine Salt Lake acquisition case by Ganfeng lithium.
Talison is an Australian company. It owns the largest reserves and best quality spodumene ore in the world – greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia. It is the largest owner and supplier of solid lithium ore in the world. It also has a market share of about 31% of the global lithium resources and supplies about 80% of the lithium concentrate in China.
Tianqi lithium started to cooperate with talison for a long time. However, in 2012, Lockwood company of the United States suddenly announced the full acquisition of talison’s common stock, which would be a bolt from the blue for China. If the acquisition is successful, almost all China’s lithium processing industries, even power batteries and new energy enterprises, will rely on others.
In order to stop Lockwood, Tianqi lithium had to intercept the equity of talison. After three months of hard work, Tianqi lithium acquired 19.99% of talison’s common shares, undermining Lockwood’s plan to acquire a controlling stake.
Subsequently, in order to completely control talison, Tianqi lithium made a decision: controlling talison!
However, it needs 5billion yuan to control talison. At the end of 2012, the total assets of Tianqi lithium was only 1.569 billion yuan, and the stock market value was only 3.5 billion yuan. This is a big gamble like a snake swallowing an elephant. If you can’t get the money, not only the purpose of holding talison can’t be achieved, but Tianqi group will face bankruptcy crisis instead.
Finally, considering the strategic significance of lithium, state-owned CIC group decided to inject capital into windfield, a subsidiary of Tianqi lithium, to help Tianqi group win 100% of talison’s equity. It also allowed China to completely control the spodumene mineral resources with the best global resource endowment and improved the upstream resource layout of the lithium industry chain.
Although the lithium mine in Australia is good, with the progress of lithium extraction technology in the salt lake, the salt lake lithium with lower cost and easier mining is favored by international giants. Countries all over the world have set their eyes on South America. Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have a large amount of lithium in the salt Lake, also known as the “lithium triangle”. These three countries control nearly 58% of the world’s 78million tons of lithium reserves.
There is less precipitation and more evaporation of water here. The cost of extracting lithium from the concentrated salt lake brine is relatively low. Industrial lithium carbonate can be directly obtained, which can be transformed into deeply processed lithium products after purification. After successful mining, it is like a money printer.
China Ganfeng lithium has entered Argentina and invested in the Mariana Salt Lake Lithium project. The total lithium resources here are about 8.12 million tons of LCE, and Ganfeng holds 100% of the equity of the project.
However, China’s mining plan was greatly resisted by the West. On the one hand, it spread the news that the prices of cobalt, lithium and nickel, the three key battery raw materials, will fall in the next two years, which will hit the market prospect of lithium mine and lower Ganfeng’s share price. On the other hand, it encouraged the Argentine government to boycott foreign enterprises in the name of “protecting domestic assets” and even “nationalize” lithium mine. Livent, an American lithium mining giant, even lobbied South American countries to “supply local markets with local production capacity”!
What? Now you think you are an American country? Why didn’t you say it when you bullied South American countries?
When business involves the political level, it can not be solved by an enterprise. Subsequently, China has increased its support and investment in Argentina, and the total amount of economic cooperation between the two sides has reached 35billion US dollars. When the Argentine president visited China, he signed a joint statement with China. China firmly supports Argentina and reiterates its support for the Argentine side’s request to fully exercise sovereignty over the Malvinas Islands issue. In order to ensure the safety of lithium mines, The two sides also had in-depth communication on the introduction of Chinese fighter planes.
This finally ensured the smooth operation of Ganfeng lithium in Argentina’s lithium project. At the same time, Ningde times also won another salt lake lithium mine in Argentina.
Up to now, ALB (Yabao) in the United States, sqm in Chile, Tianqi lithium and Ganfeng lithium in China, and Livent in the United States have accounted for 70% of the global lithium salt market share. In the rest, BYD and Ningde times, the Chinese enterprises that are later in lithium mining, have also accounted for a large share.
The Chinese people know that lithium is the future, and finding lithium has become a strategic priority for China. No matter whether the enterprise is for its own money or for the country, as long as it can guarantee the supply of lithium in China, it can get the support of the country.
In short, China must consider that in the future, when the door is closed, it should ensure that a proportion of lithium resources can be controlled independently. In the future, the rise of domestic electric vehicles will not be blocked by people in the upstream.
So far, China has completely seized the upstream resources of lithium ore, avoiding the tragedy of the great development of steel and iron but making a wedding dress for foreign mining enterprises.
Catfish effect, introducing Tesla
China is right to develop new energy vehicles, and it is also right for the state to subsidize expensive new energy vehicles to cultivate the market. But why do we cultivate a number of manufacturers who only know how to cheat?
The reason is very simple. These manufacturers are too comfortable.
Why do many domestic consumers recognize foreign brands? Isn’t it because they are powerful, fuel-efficient and good-looking?
Only when there is comparison can consumers know which is better.
However, in the field of new energy, in that era, traditional car companies basically did not have mature new energy models, and domestic consumers simply did not know what new energy vehicles to praise. Therefore, early new energy car companies often played tricks to achieve the purpose of earning subsidies.
For example, on the basis of existing models, directly “changing oil to electricity” has become a new energy vehicle, saving a lot of design and testing costs.
However, in fact, the basic structures of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles are completely different. You should know that the chassis of a fuel vehicle should take into account the functional structures such as transmission and fuel tank. Therefore, the overall design is very complex and cannot be changed randomly. Either the batteries can only be “inserted” and scattered in all parts of the chassis, or they can only “steal space” and raise the height of the rear seats to plug the batteries.
The result of this is not only the urgent mileage, poor comfort, but also the safety problem. The scattered battery layout can not achieve all-round protection, especially the exposed battery pack of some models. If the chassis is scratched, the battery pack is easy to be deformed and damaged, and there are serious potential safety hazards.
Such new energy vehicles have been sold for several years in China because there is no comparison. Anyway, as long as the vehicles are produced, a subsidy will be made. Who is willing to carefully design a perfect new energy vehicle?
If we don’t let a catfish in, these domestic sardine manufacturers will only stay in the comfort zone forever. They will make a lot of money through subsidies but don’t want to make progress. They will discredit themselves step by step and eventually die one by one.
At this time, the state invited a catfish – Tesla.
Although Tesla now has various controversies, and musk has mixed praise and criticism in China, it is undeniable that Tesla, who built electric cars from the beginning, knows how to build an electric car better than domestic manufacturers.
The arrival of Tesla has made Chinese consumers bright: it turns out that this is a new energy vehicle!
This has created a huge pressure on domestic manufacturers. If they do not launch new energy vehicles that can rival Tesla, the new energy vehicle market that has been hard won will be lost in a very short time.
How not to be defeated by Tesla? Then there is only one thing: learn from Tesla!
Why can Tesla challenge the world’s major Centennial auto companies in just ten years? Musk has a lot to do with him. Musk is a performance personality and has attached many labels to him: the richest man in the world, the man who threatened to engage in Mars colonization, and the iron man in Silicon Valley. With the design of his technology maniac, musk has been crazy about fans on Twitter and has gained countless loyal and fans. Now the number of fans has reached 80million, which is comparable to trump.
What is this 80million? It’s traffic!
In traditional automobile enterprises, the marketing cost of a car accounts for at least 10-20% of the selling price. Large automobile enterprises spend billions of dollars on advertising marketing every year.
Looking at Tesla, musk, relying on this huge traffic and the advantage of the United States in the global public opinion field, has been constantly touching on Japanese mitada and German cars for a long time, almost without spending a penny on advertising, and has quickly shaped the brand image of electric cars in the world.
Although there is a gap between the technical level of China’s new energy vehicles and Tesla, the gap is at least much smaller than the “three big pieces” of traditional gasoline vehicles, right? The real gap lies in Tesla’s user thinking, experience thinking, design thinking and marketing thinking in the Internet era.
Tesla’s business models and design ideas such as interconnection, electrification, automatic driving, energy storage system and charging network, data business model, etc. have given Chinese manufacturers a bright feeling, and forced Chinese automobile manufacturers to also begin to pay attention to these business models and design ideas, and finally cultivated “Tesla in China”.
In a sense, Tesla is to China’s automobile industry what apple is to China’s mobile phone industry.
In addition, the arrival of Tesla also helped China build the most complete new energy vehicle industry chain.
We can take a look at the very favorable conditions given by China in order to invite Tesla: sole proprietorship, 10billion low interest loans, 1290 mu of cheap land.
This condition can be said to be quite favorable. After all, Volkswagen, the first to enter China to make cars, did not realize sole ownership. Of course, China has also set conditions for Tesla: complete the investment of more than 14 billion yuan in five years, turn in more than 2.23 billion yuan of profits every year after 2023, and complete the localization rate of accessories within three years.
Among these conditions, it seems that profit is the most important, but in fact, “localization” is more important.
As we all know, Tesla is an enterprise based on Internet thinking. It attaches great importance to asset light operation. Parts are mainly supplied from outside. It has also established a huge supply chain and supplier library, including powertrain, electric drive, charging, chassis, body, central control navigation, multi-media, etc.
Tesla’s annual output of hundreds of thousands creates a huge demand for parts, creates a huge attraction, attracts Chinese capital to invest in it, constantly conquers technologies to meet supply standards, and finally realizes the replacement of localized parts.
After all, the guiding role of naked money is much greater than that of the state.
In fact, this set of policies has been a very mature method to promote the industry. We all remember that about 10 years ago, the domestic independent smart phone industry was still poor, foreign brands dominated the market, and domestic brands could only maintain the low-end key machine market. However, after apple and Foxconn came, they incubated a complete industrial chain in China, ranging from screens to linear motors, Both have very mature domestic suppliers.
You know, this complete supplier system can not only supply apple, but also other domestic manufacturers. It has also spawned a large number of local industry leaders and excellent enterprises, providing fertile soil for the development and growth of domestic mobile phones. Under this premise, Huawei, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo have developed rapidly, and then gradually moved to the world.
This policy has made the mobile phone industry a success, and the success in the field of new energy vehicles is just around the corner.
Of course, it’s not enough to just let catfish in, but also to solve the problem of “cheating on compensation”
Drive the car companies out of the comfort zone.
The four ministries and commissions have specially carried out the verification of new energy vehicles. They have not only recovered subsidies, but also imposed huge fines for the four kinds of deceptive compensation behaviors, such as no vehicle with a license, lack of power, inconsistent labels, and idleness of related parties and dealers. In serious cases, they have directly cancelled the automobile production qualification!
Punishment is not the purpose. The purpose is to make the practitioners in the automobile industry correct their attitude, put away their unhealthy thoughts and consider how to build a car well. At the same time, the state has also adjusted the subsidy policy, changing the “pre-sales advance” of the subsidy to “after-sales liquidation, first inspection and then compensation”, that is, the enterprise sells first, and after the tram is licensed, it also reports the operation data, and then the state checks the reported data, and issues the subsidy after verification.
In addition, the battery energy density and vehicle endurance capacity are also included as important subsidy parameters. Do you want to create a car with a endurance of more than 100 kilometers to compete for the “Dole” electric vehicle market to get subsidies? Don’t even think about it!
Driven by Tesla and guided by national policies, the domestic electric vehicle market has matured rapidly, which has led to the rapid rise of domestic electric vehicle brands such as ideal, BYD, Xiaopeng and velai. The market value of velai once exceeded that of BMW, Ferrari and general motors.
Moreover, new energy vehicles are naturally more suitable for the Internet of vehicles than gasoline vehicles, and have formed a complementary situation with China’s booming Internet industry. The satellite positioning, map navigation, Internet of vehicles, automatic driving and 5g communication we are good at are the development direction of new energy vehicles. Therefore, China and the United States, which have developed new energy vehicles, are precisely the two camps with the rapid development of the Internet economy in recent years.
In the whole year of 2021, with the global auto sales shrinking, the cumulative sales of domestic passenger cars reached 2014.6 million, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year.
Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.989 million, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year. Compared with 2020, the sales volume of passenger cars in 2021 increased by 860000, while the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 1879000.
It can be said that the growth point in 2021 is mainly concentrated in the field of new energy vehicles.
Among the top 20 global new energy brand sales list in 2021, there are 8 Chinese brands, 4 German brands, 3 European brands, 2 American brands, 2 Korean brands and 1 Japanese brand.
In terms of output, China’s eight major brands accounted for 28.23% of the total global new energy sales in 2021. It can be said that China has supported half of the global new energy vehicles except Tesla, far surpassing the traditional car companies represented by Germany and Japan.
Why are German and Japanese car companies with more profound technology accumulation inferior to the newly emerging new energy car companies?
In fact, sometimes technology accumulation is a bad thing.
For example, German automobile, which is highly respected by Chinese consumers, has gone through more than 130 years of development since Karl Benz invented the first automobile in 1886.
The automobile Kingdom has been built in a hundred years. The hundred year cooperation between brands and supporting industrial chains is intertwined with each other, and their interests are deeply intertwined. In particular, through excellent engine, gearbox and chassis technologies and patents, they have built a solid industrial barrier, which has always been their pride.
But now, you let them all give up and start developing electric cars from scratch? Believe it or not, millions of workers in this industrial chain are desperately looking for the government?
Japan is the other extreme. Japan is the first country to produce lithium battery electric vehicles, but it has bet on another track: hydrogen energy.
Hydrogen energy can not be said to be not advanced, but because the Japanese firmly grasp the patents of hydrogen energy vehicles, strive to save technology, but do not pay attention to cultivating the hydrogen energy market, the public’s recognition of hydrogen energy vehicles is very low. In addition, due to the high risk of hydrogen leakage and hydrogen flash, it has not yet been fully commercialized.
It’s just like that you usually forget to eat and sleep to learn mathematics, and finally you go to the examination room and find out that it’s English. This mood is a true portrayal of Toyota, the world’s largest auto giant, when facing the trend of electrification. It is no wonder that Toyota President Akio Toyoda will personally take the fight and scold electric vehicles.
Compared with Germany and Japan, China’s advantage is that China’s automobile industry started late, and there is no hope of breaking through the technical bottleneck. Instead, the ship is small and easy to turn around, so it can take advantage of the domestic market to grow rapidly.
Climate agreement, opening up the global new energy market
As we all know, China and the United States have faced competition and confrontation in almost all fields in recent years. But it is strange that Biden has sent former Secretary of State John Kerry to China to talk about environmental protection in the field of environmental protection.
Kerry can also be said to be a worthwhile trip. China and the United States issued a joint statement on coping with the climate crisis. The statement announced that China and the United States will achieve the goal of reducing emissions in the whole economy by 26%~28% on the basis of 2005 by 2025, while China plans to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030.
Many people wonder whether the issue of carbon emissions is a conspiracy to lock up China’s development? Why should China cooperate with this strategy instead?
In fact, this agreement will be a brilliant stroke in the development history of China’s new energy industry.
We all remember the peak duel between Chai Jing and academician Ding Zhongli, and the soul torture by academician Ding Zhongli: are Chinese people human?
The background of this event is that about a decade ago, the EU proposed to quantify carbon emissions globally and allocate certain carbon emission rights to countries. If carbon emissions exceed the standard, it will cost money to buy carbon targets in other countries. Even flights to Europe will have to pay “carbon emission transaction fees”.
This kind of proposal of standing still without pain was quickly opposed by major economies such as China and the United States. The European Union has a developed economy, and its economic structure is dominated by finance and high-end manufacturing, with little emissions. However, countries such as China and India have great growth potential, so what can we do without emissions? As a country on wheels, the United States is second to none in terms of gasoline consumption, power consumption or per capita meat intake. Its share of carbon emissions is certainly not enough and it can only buy carbon emission rights.
Isn’t that what Europe has done? Don’t even think about it! Therefore, China, the United States and India jointly oppose the European initiative.
However, the world situation has changed over the past ten years!
The Democratic Party of the United States is mainly in the coastal areas, and is very concerned about climate warming and sea-level rise. Therefore, the Democratic Party began to pay attention to environmental protection as soon as it came here. At the same time, the new energy industry is also the Democratic Party’s financier. If emissions are limited, it will be conducive to the global expansion of the new energy industry in the United States. Therefore, Biden dared to raise the target of increasing the proportion of electric vehicles to 50% by 2030.
China, on the other hand, is totally different. It is not that China does not want carbon neutralization, but that it was not the time. China also realized that carbon neutralization is a matter of time.
Therefore, in the past decade, China’s institutional advantages have been brought into full play. Once the country has set a direction with great foresight, it will continue to do so with the strength of the whole country. No matter whether the Minister of science and technology who is proficient in technology is appointed to develop new energy vehicles, or the nature of infrastructure mania is used to build highways and bridges across the country to promote the demand for automobiles, or the transformation of new energy is desperately promoted to vigorously develop clean power such as wind power, hydropower and photovoltaic power generation, All fully reflect this.
Today, China’s clean energy technology has ranked among the best in the world, and its nuclear power, hydropower and photovoltaic power generation technologies have reached the world-class level.
In the field of new energy technology, China has also taken the lead in the world. In the field of power batteries, charging systems, fuel cells and motors, the number of patents has already ranked first in the world.
For example, China’s permanent magnet synchronous motor is small in size, light in weight and high in efficiency. This motor requires a special material called neodymium iron boron, which is the strongest permanent magnet found by human beings. This kind of material can only be extracted from rare earth, and it happens that China accounts for more than 60% of the world’s rare earth production capacity and more than 85% of the world’s neodymium iron boron production capacity.
Relying on these patents and technologies, China has grown into a wolf like new energy vehicle enterprise and a complete supporting industrial chain!
When the output comes up, the market is needed. Obviously, the domestic market is not enough. We must go out. But what if foreign countries don’t like electric cars? Waving the banner of climate issues and forcing other countries to take a stand!
So it seems that the Sino US climate agreement is to regulate China and the United States, but in fact it is to regulate the world!
Let’s take a look at the contents of the statement: in order to promote the invention and promotion of new zero carbon and low carbon technologies and enhance the capacity of countries to reduce emissions
China and the United States, the two largest clean energy investors in the world, will carry out various work related to new energy vehicles in addition to establishing a mature energy technology cooperation plan.
China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world. These two economies have reached a climate agreement. Other countries will see to it! If you do not keep up with the introduction of environmental protection policies, you may have to pay a higher price when allocating carbon emission targets in the future.
In this way, it will stimulate the demand for new energy vehicles in the global market!
When demand comes, China is the only country in the world that can produce new energy vehicles on a large scale! Faced with the emerging markets of various countries with new energy policies, China’s new energy vehicle enterprises, which have been tortured by Tesla and become bigger and stronger in China, will usher in a large global market with unlimited future!
This route is completely consistent with the counter attack of domestic home appliance brands and domestic mobile phone brands.
As weijianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, said, “globalization is the only way out for Chinese automobile enterprises. If independent brand cars blindly rely on the domestic market, do not go out, and have no influence in the world, the dividends of more than 20 years will be wasted.”
The best thing is that the most powerful global automobile brands are the Japanese and German brands, which rank first and second respectively. If China’s electric vehicles rise, it will mainly erode the cake of the Japanese and German brands, and basically do not touch the high-tech field that the United States values most. Therefore, the United States will not have too much resistance. Instead, the United States will make a lot of money because of the surge in global demand for new energy.
Think again, all countries in the world have issued environmental protection policies and policies to promote new energy, and the demand for the whole new energy supply chain broke out in a short time, which means that all lithium battery materials are facing a supply gap.
Who owns the lithium mine? Except Chile, China and the United States!
At that time, China will have a decisive say in the world energy field, just as the Middle East now controls oil.
Why does the country attach so much importance to the automobile industry?
Because automobile is a typical technology intensive industry, which is composed of tens of thousands of parts and components, involving the huge upstream and downstream supply chain, and the technical capabilities in many fields, such as metal processing, material science, electrical technology, software technology, etc., it is not only related to the employment of millions of people, but also the development and manufacturing of automobile will drive the development of related technologies, which can spill over to the entire industrial system.
A country may build rockets, ships and satellites, but if it does not have a commercial automobile industry, it cannot prove its strength in industrial technology and management technology. After all, cars are not only made, but also sold. Therefore, a balance between technology and cost must be achieved.
Therefore, the automobile industry is the Pearl on the crown of modern industry and the most important engine to drive the modern economy. In a sense,
The development level and strength of the automobile industry can reflect a country’s comprehensive national strength and competitiveness.
The significance of the automobile industry is more clearly understood by the Chinese people who are dedicated to industrialization than anyone else. Only China can stand at the national height and promote the three masterpieces, first get the upper reaches, then mature the domestic market, and finally open up the international market. The miracle of the five-year counter attack has been achieved.
Now, Wan Gang has retired, and China’s new energy vehicles that he has supported have also realized his dream of “overtaking at corners”.
In 2021, China’s export of finished vehicles exceeded 2million for the first time, reaching 2.015 million, a year-on-year increase of 1 times, ranking third in the world, second only to Japan (3.82 million) and Germany (2.3 million), and has significantly exceeded that of South Korea (1.52 million).
Among them, the export volume of new energy reached 310000, a year-on-year increase of 304.6%.
In the first quarter of 2022, China’s automobile exports will increase by about 60%, with a monthly average of 200000 vehicles. If the supply chain difficulties are overcome, the probability of 2022 will surpass Germany to become the second in the world.
At the same time, inflation in western countries has led to a sharp increase in various living expenses, a sharp drop in the desire to buy cars, and a sharp drop in automobile sales in the United States in May.
Honda sold 75491 vehicles in the United States in May, a year-on-year decrease of 57.3%; Toyota 175990 vehicles decreased by 27.3%; Mazda 15312, down 63.7%; Subaru 42526 vehicles decreased by 24.8%.
Because Japanese cars bet on the wrong new energy route, the supply chain systems of Toyota and Honda are extremely closed. Through cross shareholding, investment holding, merger and reorganization, they have deeply integrated a large number of Japanese local parts enterprises into their own “family members” to form a vertical community of interests. Even if the Japanese want to develop electric vehicles, what about the parts enterprises that produce engines and gearboxes? There will inevitably be a huge wave of opposition within the family.
Even Toyoda Zhangnan, the head of Toyota, threatened that the transformation of electric vehicles would cause millions of people to lose their jobs and destroy the entire ecosystem of auto parts suppliers.
In fact, this is nothing more than a question of “dying now” or “dying later”.
In addition, Japan’s domestic market is narrow and cannot cultivate a large enough hydrogen energy market through internal circulation. The global hydrogen energy technology is basically monopolized by Japan. Considering the market dominance, Europe and the United States are unwilling to cooperate with Japan’s hydrogen energy strategy. Even if Japan uses various publicity forces to promote hydrogen energy, it is estimated that few countries will join in.
According to this momentum of development, it is just around the corner that Chinese car companies will surpass Japan to become the world’s No. 1 in the next few years.
Remember that question? Almost everyone thinks that it will take 20-30 years for Chinese auto companies to surpass Japan and Germany. With new energy, China may achieve the goal within 10 years.
In the past, foreign auto companies created three major technical barriers for China, and now Chinese auto companies have dug out a deep moat for foreign auto companies, that is, a solid closed-loop supply chain, an Internet of vehicles ecosystem and pricing autonomy.
Now, China’s automobile industry has been able to get rid of the reputation of “not striving for success”. From January to may 2022, BYD’s cumulative sales reached 505901 units, a year-on-year increase of 167.1%, temporarily ranking second in the global automobile manufacturers’ sales list. In the field of new energy vehicles, BYD has surpassed Tesla to become a true new energy vehicle giant.
In the field of power batteries, on June 23, 2022, Ningde times also released the world’s No. 1 ctp3.0 Kirin battery, with a volume utilization rate of more than 72% and an energy density of 255wh/kg. It can achieve a vehicle endurance of 1000 km, support 5-minute hot start and 10-minute fast charge to 80%.
What does that mean? It shows that new energy vehicles can take about the same time as refueling to realize rapid charging, and the only advantage of gasoline vehicles over electric vehicles will disappear!
China’s auto market will no longer become a gambling house for foreign enterprises. On the contrary, China’s auto industry will become a new pillar of China’s economic development in the future. Now, the Russian Ukrainian war has brought about high energy prices. Europe has to accelerate the early implementation of the EU’s new energy route, which will also bring a new and broader market for China’s new energy vehicles.
In the past, China’s capture of consumer electronics industries such as home appliances and mobile phones enabled the whole Chinese people to enjoy a comfortable life, with a per capita GDP of more than 10000 US dollars. In the future, if China wins the world’s new energy automobile industry, its per capita GDP will easily exceed 20000 US dollars, reaching the level of moderately developed countries. It is not impossible.
In this century changing situation, opportunities and challenges coexist, and both opportunities and risks coexist. China’s new energy vehicles have achieved a counter attack in just 10 years, but the counter attack will not stop. We look forward to China’s new energy vehicles maintaining the momentum and writing a new legend!
This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).