Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
It has been nearly 100 days since the war between Russia and Ukraine, and several strange scenes have appeared.
Scene 1: the rouble crash did not occur
The Russo Ukrainian war divided the Chinese public opinion into two groups, the pro american group and the pro Russian group.
Why don’t you say “ting Wu Pai”? The Tingwu faction does not say no, but very few. Most of them are quite Ukrainian, but actually they are quite American.
The pro american faction believes that the ruble will collapse under strong Western sanctions. After all, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, the historical picture of the ruble flowing down 3000 feet was really spectacular.
At the beginning of Western sanctions, the ruble did indeed fall sharply for twoorthree weeks. But then the rouble rallied, bringing back all its losses.
The fourth reason is that foreign countries scrambled for the market and lowered their natural gas expectations.
Azerbaijan, Qatar, Senegal, Algeria and Iran are also competing for the European natural gas market after Russia’s withdrawal. In Azerbaijan in particular, natural gas pipelines can transit directly through Europe from Turkey.
The funniest thing is that Israel also wants a share.
Although Israel is small, it is not short of natural gas; The proved natural gas reserves reach 921billion cubic meters; In addition, on May 9, energean, a British company operating on the continental shelf of Israel, announced that it had discovered a deposit that may contain other huge reserves, with Exploitable natural gas reserves of more than 500billion cubic meters.
Israel plans to build a pipeline from the Mediterranean to Greece and Italy. In this way, it can compete with Russia and Azerbaijan in the southern European market in the field of natural gas.
Scene 3: the nuclear crisis did not occur.
At the beginning of the war, many old irons in the melon eating industry were worried because the West and Russia were strengthening their muscles one after another. Once the two sides inadvertently pressed the nuclear button, the flowers and plants in the global village would suffer.
At that time, the emperor’s supporters liked to discuss who Russia would throw its nuclear weapons to first. Some people say it’s Poland. The reason is that Poland hates Russia most. It is also said that Lithuania is the most anti Russian country. Others said it was Britain, because Britain jumped the highest. In addition, there are options such as Japan and the United States.
However, from the beginning of the war to the present, there has never been a so-called nuclear crisis. The reason is simple:
1. Nuclear weapons cannot be pressed casually. Once launched, they are the public enemy of human civilization.
2. The essence of Russia’s war is to engage in land and resources, not to destroy the world.
3. Putin wants to remain famous in history, not to tear up history textbooks.
4. Although the Ukrainian war has caused confrontation between Russia and the west, this confrontation is insignificant in modern history.
When the ruble picks up and the price of natural gas in Europe drops, the potential nuclear risk will further decline. Nowadays, few people talk about the nuclear crisis.
The Ukrainian war tells us that from a broader perspective, human beings are sometimes fragile, but sometimes they are tough.
When people are optimistic that human society is tough, it is often very fragile.
When people pessimistically think that human society is fragile, they are often very tough.