Author: Li Da Casual People Source: A Casual Person outside Di’anmenwai (ID: damyyxr)
Warm up before major activities.
First in the Far East, our Chairman met with the Great Emperor; In Beijing, our first diplomat talked with the outgoing Russian ambassador.
They are all appetizers for the main meal in two days.
Since the keynote of the conference has been set in the summer capital in August, we should free up our hands to deal with the outside affairs.
Say more. During this period of internal learning, we should further develop new concepts in the face of a new stage of development. After the conference is held, the focus should be shifted to the implementation and will comprehensively promote the construction of a new pattern.
The focus of the new pattern is the internal circulation, while the corresponding external circulation must be centered on the internal circulation, completely abandoning the “pseudo circulation” of “two ends outside” in the past 30 years.
It is up to us to win.
Within us, the overall situation is determined and the rhythm is controllable; With an eye to the external environment, since the three wars in Europe, changes have appeared. It is time to follow the trend.
This trend was brought by the northern neighbor.
The national transportation in the north is always closely related to the fluctuation of oil prices. Brezhnev era was full of rage, which was caused by the soaring oil prices brought about by the Middle East crisis; The loneliness of Gorbachev and the weakness of Yeltsin later came from the long-term downturn in oil prices.
The economic base determines political ambition. It is not only the United States that is bound up with the dark industrial blood?
Putin launched Crimea in 2014, which coincided with the high oil price; A few years ago, he sent troops to Syria to help Assad collapse, and the oil price was on the rise; The special action at the beginning of this year was the peak of this round of upward cycle of oil prices.
There are no endless feasts or unilateral cycles. With the initial success of a series of games in the United States,
As global oil prices enter the downward channel, the situation of the northern neighbor is difficult.
Apart from the oil price, another indicator to examine the strength of the northern neighbor is weapons.
With the verification of the Russian Ukrainian war, the conventional weapons in the north have indeed shown great fear. Up to now, we can only rely on nuclear weapons to make some bluff.
The equipment and tactics of the northern neighbor are still in the former Soviet period, 2 or 30 years behind this era, while the high-tech weapons are obviously lacking in quality due to the interruption of chip supply and technology. It was obviously a home battle, but it was a draw with the former junior brother of the mixed brand army. There are signs of collapse in the near future.
A few years ago, the North Neighbor was flat in the Middle East. It was because the rabble funded by the CIA was a group of militiamen. They had not received formal training.
Therefore, at the Moscow Arms Exhibition held in Syria after the war, the equipment in the north was sold very well. Behind it was the princes from the Middle East who came to pay protection fees at the border of the Big Brother and paid homage to the wharf, which made the Great Emperor’s fame unparalleled.
This year’s Moscow Arms Exhibition, however, has almost no foreign orders. The arsenal in the north has put out all the family resources, but few international buyers have paid attention to it. Finally, old friends in the past, such as Burma’s military government, have paid their respects.
Another aspect of the weakness of the northern neighbor is from a news not long ago. Just before the trip to the Far East, Sakhalin, the only state capital in the north adjacent to the Far East that does not rely on transfer payments, also officially declared that it could not make ends meet.
With the withdrawal of ExxonMobil, Sakhalin 1, which relies heavily on western drilling technology, has stopped operation. The north neighbor’s own technology can not extract oil and gas at high latitudes, so we can only watch the money bag shrink.
In addition, the oil and gas industry, like all heavy industries, can never be stopped. The cost of restarting is very high, and once stopped, there will be major problems.
Therefore, despite its strong rhetoric, North Neighbor said that it would move Sakhalin 2 and change to Japanese operators such as Mitsui and Sumitomo, the industry knows that North Neighbor is bluffing, because it has no confidence in moving Sakhalin 2 or cannot afford to move it.
The economic center of the north is in the west, that is, the European side. The long-term sanctions mean that the northern neighbor has to adjust its economic structure to the east, which will cost a lot.
The north neighbor wants to save face. He still speaks hard, but he is honest. No, just a few days ago, the hydrogen energy mining built by China Energy Corporation in Sakhalin took a big step forward.
Before, the northern neighbor kept resources away from the eastern powers. Now the river is declining, and it may collapse completely without foreign aid.
To sum up, if the oil price is a barometer of the strength of the northern neighbor, the value of force is the basis for the capital market to price the northern neighbor. Now both of them are useless. The northern neighbor can only open his hand and let the eastern powers enter the rescue site.
Moreover, Sakhalin (Sakhalin Island) is only the prelude. The eastern powers focus on the west, that is, Central Asia.
The construction of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway next year also means that the northern neighbor has no control over the situation and the eastern powers have to take charge of it.
Don’t underestimate the power of infrastructure. Infrastructure means standard, while standard means reproducible and spreading.
The main reason why Apple and Amazon can make so much money is that they hold the standard and hold the most profitable part tightly in their hands.
Infrastructure goes out and energy comes in; Standards go out and profits come in. When Stans have money, they naturally don’t want to make trouble any more, and the security problem will be solved.
After all, a great country is a country with thousands of years of history and a state of etiquette. In the face of its weak northern neighbor, it should give enough face. Therefore, this ceremony will be very grand and full of words.
The higher the level of leadership, the bigger the decision. What’s more, this is the first meeting between the supreme heads of state after the war.
In the next five to ten years, domestic capital will increase to the west, with Kashgar in Xinjiang as the center, to create a new route connecting the Eurasian continent.
The new order in Central Asia is coming, and this SCO Conference is a new starting point.
Finally, a personal suggestion. Since it is to expand the territory, from the perspective of national conditions, it is inevitable that the national team will go first to complete the construction of the early backbone network, while private enterprises and other bulk forces will enter and operate after the completion of the backbone project.
I have repeatedly stressed that in this period, there must be units, because only the national team or units with Chinese characteristics have the strength to take this pioneering task into their arms.
From the decline of the strength of the northern neighbor to the handover of the traditional sphere of influence in Central Asia, from leaders’ visits to the future westward layout.
You must be aware of the overall situation to know how individuals make choices in the turbulence.