Today, there is a special background for high-level calls between China and Japan!

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Source: wechat official account: Bu Yidao has been authorized to reprint

Pen / Tiger knife & Sister Daodao

This summer, the active duty officials of Japan’s defense ministry will be stationed in Taiwan?

This latest revelation by the Japanese media is tantamount to dropping a bomb on the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

Once it comes true, this will be the first time that Japan has sent similar personnel to Taiwan after the US Association in Taiwan has an active land, sea and air force garrison. It will also be the second major change in Japan’s personnel in Taiwan after Japan sent a retired self-defense officer to Taiwan in 1996.

On July 7, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the general office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, had a telephone conversation with Akiba Gangnan, director of Japan’s national security.

Yang Jiechi said that at present, new and old issues in China Japan relations are intertwined, and difficulties and challenges cannot be ignored.

Recently, Japan has made constant small moves on the situation in the Taiwan Strait. An observer asked: as a “supporting role” in the Taiwan Strait situation in the past, is Japan gradually stepping onto the “leading role” stage?


According to Japanese media, the Japanese government plans to send a civilian active duty staff of the Ministry of defense to the Taipei Office of the Japan Taiwan Exchange Association, the window organ of Japan’s Taiwan Affairs, rather than the “military attache” of the sea, land and air self defense force.

As we all know, since the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan in 1972, Japan and Taiwan have no diplomatic relations. Therefore, the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association Taipei office” has actually assumed the role of a “embassy”, and the contacts between Japanese politicians and the DPP authorities should also be assisted through this “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association”.


Over time, the status of the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association” has risen rapidly and become an important channel for Japan Taiwan exchanges.

With the United States and Japan paying more attention to the situation in Taiwan, Japan’s attempt to add “diplomatic color” to the association has become increasingly undisguised.

On the new year’s day of 2017, the renaming of the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association” became a landmark event of “soft breakthrough” between Japan and Taiwan after Tsai ing Wen took office. At that time, the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association” was also called the “Exchange Association”. This change of name flagrantly juxtaposed Japan and Taiwan to create “one China, one Taiwan”.

Japan’s defense ministry originally stationed a retired military attache in the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association”. The Taiwan Strait crisis that broke out in 1996 was believed to be caused by insufficient collection of military intelligence. Therefore, in 2003, the Taipei Office of the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association” set up the post of “security director”, which was appointed by the Ministry of defense to retired major general Nagano Yangyi.

However, since he is not an official in active service, the information obtained by the “security director” must be transmitted back to Japan through diplomatic channels, and the Ministry of defense cannot be directly contacted. It must be communicated through layer by layer contacts.

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some voices in Japan said that information communication channels between Japan and Taiwan should be strengthened. Media analysis believed that sending officials of the defense ministry in active service could fill this gap in information exchange. If military attache were sent, it would probably cause strong dissatisfaction in Chinese Mainland.

So they want to play a “marginal ball”: sending a civil servant is not so eye-catching, but can also have the practical effect of strengthening intelligence links.


Moreover, it is worth noting that this was first disclosed by the Japanese media, which has not been confirmed by the Japanese authorities. Taiwan’s so-called “Ministry of foreign affairs” and “Ministry of national defense” refused to respond directly to this matter.

Some scholars analyzed that the announcement of Taiwan Japan affairs should be subject to the Ministry of foreign affairs of Japan. Some specific media often talk about it, but it did not come true in the end. At present, it is difficult to say that this situation is the final decision, because the Ministry of defense will have to go through a lot of discussions to determine. If the Chinese Mainland reacts strongly, it may still end up unharmed.

However, some analysts believe that Japan is used to using the sausage cutting strategy to move forward step by step. At present, it is possible to send civilian officials in active service. The next step may be to send military personnel in active service or increase the number of people stationed in Taiwan.

And both civilian and military posts are essentially active duty officials. In recent years, Japan and Taiwan have been trying to gradually enhance the diplomatic color of the “Japan Taiwan Exchange Association” through the strategy of “boiling frogs in warm water”.

From the recent Japanese actions against Taiwan, Japan’s involvement in Taiwan affairs is not limited to this.

Recently, Japan’s defense ministry revealed that it also plans to establish an integrated commander to uniformly command the use of land, sea and air self defense forces and an integrated command to support the integrated commander to deal with China.

Japanese media said that Japan believes that China’s maritime operations are “enhanced” and is worried about “Taiwan’s affairs”. At the same time, it should also pay attention to new areas of security, such as space, network and electromagnetic wave. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a new special post to improve its mobility.

In addition, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has rarely annotated the statement “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” in the amendment to the “basic principles for economic and financial operation and reform” just passed this year.

This basic policy is to point out the important issues of the regime and the directionality of the next year’s budget. It spans departments and is led by the prime minister to promote reform. Its importance is self-evident.

Moreover, in the face of the upcoming NATO summit at the end of June, sources revealed that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not only willing to consider attending, but also will coordinate positions with all parties on the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

It seems that Japan, which once played a “supporting role” in Taiwan Affairs, is now gradually placing a “leading role halo” on itself. While releasing a test balloon to observe China’s response, Japan is considering its next move.


On Taiwan related issues, the Japanese government is cutting sausage and pushing forward, and politicians are also busy creating momentum.

Among them, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe jumped the highest.


On Sunday, Abe mentioned the topic of Taiwan again at a forum, saying that he wanted to “tighten the ties between Japan and the United States, Japan, the United States, Taiwan, Japan, the United States, India and Australia, as well as countries with similar aspirations”, because “it is very important to create conditions for China to give up force to reunify Taiwan”.

He reiterated that “what happens to Taiwan is what happens to Japan”, declaring that Japan needs to fundamentally strengthen its defense capability, and then take the US Japan alliance as the center to improve its deterrent to Chinese Mainland.

The wording of this paragraph can be seen as a phased summary of Abe’s frequent public remarks on Taiwan related issues over the past six months.

On Taiwan related issues, Abe’s logic can be roughly divided into three steps.

Step 1: link the security of Taiwan, China and Japan.

At the end of last year, Abe falsely claimed at a conference organized by a Taiwan think tank that “what happens in Taiwan is what happens in Japan.” The reason is that the so-called “Taiwan is very close to Japan”, only about 100 kilometers.

Therefore, “Taiwan Affairs” will be Japan’s “existential crisis situation”.

This statement has bewitched some Japanese people, but it can not stand scrutiny. If this argument works, can not all the neighboring countries on the mainland interfere in other countries’ domestic affairs on this ground?

Step 2: since it may constitute a “existential crisis situation”, it is necessary for Japan to increase its defense spending and realize “re militarization”.

The most typical is Abe’s “nuclear madness”.

Abe said that in view of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Japan should explore issues related to “nuclear sharing” with the United States. Look, he can’t hide his ambition to make Japan move towards nuclear weapons.

A French scholar noted that “Japan has gone through the stage of pure defense, and now the outside world sees an unconstrained military force.”

This “no restriction” is just what Abe intended.


When he was Prime Minister, he made many amendments to Japan’s security policies and the self defense forces law, such as allowing the exercise of the right to collective self-defense under limited circumstances. This has made it possible for Japan to give some support to the so-called “Taiwan Affairs”.

Abe has also repeatedly called for Amending Article 9 of the constitution to make Japan a “normal country” with a “normal” army and the “normal” right to declare war.

This year marks the 75th anniversary of the promulgation of the Japanese Constitution. Some media predict that if the ruling party wins the Senate election in July, the Yasuda regime is likely to speed up the discussion on Amending the constitution.

Step 3: externally, continue to hold the US thigh and consolidate the Japan US alliance.

Right wing politicians like Abe are clear-minded. If they want to “curb China’s rise and rejuvenation”, Japan alone cannot do it. They must hold on to the United States.

Abe has mentioned several times that “what happens to Taiwan is what happens to Japan, and it is also what happens to the Japan US alliance”. He also wrote to the Los Angeles Times, publicly calling on the United States to abandon its “strategic ambiguity” policy on the Taiwan issue.

For Abe’s many similar provocative remarks about China, some of the Yasuda regime have denied it, and some have just let it go.

Abe, is there any political influence?

The title of an article in the British economist magazine gives its answer: “Shinzo Abe still plays an important role in Japan.”

The article quoted Harris, the author of Abe’s first English biography, the anti traditionalist: Shinzo Abe and the new Japan, as saying: “Kishida is not the issue setter in Japan, Abe is.”


Xianghaoyu, a distinguished researcher of the Asia Pacific Institute of the Chinese Academy of international studies, analyzed that Japan’s recent negative and erroneous trends involving the Taiwan Strait can be roughly divided into three categories:

The first is to strengthen exchanges with Taiwan. The latest example is that it is reported that defense ministry officials will be sent to Taiwan for permanent residence. If this is true, Japan will make a breakthrough in its exchanges with Taiwan. According to the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan and Japan’s commitments, Japan’s exchanges with Taiwan cannot violate the one China principle and can only maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan. If the current defense ministry officials are really sent to Taiwan, it is in fact a breakthrough in the framework of Japan’s post-war relations with Taiwan;

The second is to promote the “China Threat Theory”. Through the media and right-wing politicians headed by Abe, Japan exaggerates the “China threat” by using the Taiwan issue and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Internally, it is to incite people’s awareness of crisis, and create a favorable public opinion environment for them to increase their defense budget and amend the peaceful constitution; The purpose of foreign policy is to serve the “Indo Pacific strategy” and provide a pretext for joining hands with the United States to contain and contain China.

For them, taking the Taiwan issue as an example or moving forward in their exchanges with Taiwan, 30% of them are worried that once there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it will endanger the islands off Okinawa, especially the Diaoyu island dispute. But the more important consideration is to take the Taiwan issue as the starting point to artificially create “external crisis”, so as to get rid of Japan’s post-war bondage and promote the realization of national normalization.

The third is to hold the United States together to exert pressure on China. Japan’s current purpose is to bring the United States in. Japan has been saying that “Taiwan’s affairs are Japan’s affairs”. In fact, the second half of the implied sentence is “Japan’s affairs are equal to those of the United States”. Because the U.S. – Japan alliance means that the United States has an obligation to assist Japan in defense. Some people on the Japanese side hope that the United States will clarify its Taiwan strategy as soon as possible. In this way, for Japan, with the United States in front of it, it will be more able to promote the agenda of military deregulation with impunity.

Fu Qianshao, an air force expert, analyzed that Japan’s sending active duty officials to Taiwan this time was said to be an intelligence gathering work, which in fact meant that the US, Japan and Taiwan authorities made corresponding military preparations.

He pointed out that intelligence information collection and sharing is actually a military action, and we should pay close attention to it. From the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it can be seen that NATO countries’ failure to send troops to Ukraine does not actually hinder their intelligence sharing and implementation with the Ukrainian army. This seems fine in peacetime, and will have an important impact on military operations in wartime.

Sentinel Fu reminded us that we must be highly vigilant and cut off such military ties when necessary. We have both soft and hard hands. Hard means, we can destroy their land-based, sea-based, air-based and space-based related systems and equipment if necessary, and soft means, such as electromagnetic suppression and electromagnetic reconnaissance. Now we have all these platforms, such as electronic reconnaissance aircraft, communication command aircraft and electronic jammers. We can strengthen the exercise and preparation in this regard.


Xianghaoyu believes that a very important reason why Japan is so unscrupulous on the Taiwan issue is that Japan US relations are in a “honeymoon period”. Japan sees the so-called “Indo Pacific strategy” that the United States wants to promote the containment of China as inseparable from Japan.

Therefore, I also want to take this opportunity to exchange Japan’s more equal status in the US Japan alliance and gain greater international influence by acting as a helper and “pawn” of the United States.

In the view of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is triggering a major adjustment of the international pattern and order after the cold war. Now it is a once-in-a-lifetime window period for Japan to get rid of the post-war shackles and realize national normalization.

At present, Japan is facing a serious situation of young children and aging, and its national strength is in a declining channel, but it still has a prominent economic and technological impact. If we do not seize the present opportunity, we may never have another opportunity in the future. In fact, this also reflects Japan’s extraordinarily anxious mentality.

Xianghao said that Japan’s current social trend of thought and political ecology have been extremely right-wing conservative. In this atmosphere, criticizing China, Russia and the DPRK has become a kind of “political correctness”.

Although Kishida himself is a moderate conservative, facing the pressure of the Senate election in July, he had to cater to the domestic right-wing populist political atmosphere, and even made such provocative remarks as “today’s Ukraine, tomorrow’s East Asia”. As the public opinion in Japan has fallen into a vicious circle of self strengthening “external threat” cognition, the political polarization and populism have intensified day by day. The Taiwan issue has been put on the agenda as a national security issue that affects Japan’s “National Movement”. Politicians with rational attitudes are also bound to be coerced. Japanese society has almost no rational cognition and discussion space.


On July 7, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the general office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, had a telephone conversation with Akiba Gangnan, director of Japan’s national security.

Yang Jiechi said that this year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, and bilateral relations have reached an important historical node. At present, new and old problems in China Japan relations are intertwined, and difficulties and challenges cannot be ignored. The two sides should grasp the right direction, adhere to win-win cooperation, focus on the long-term overall situation, enhance security and mutual trust, work together to bring a stable, healthy and strong China Japan relationship into the next 50 years, and jointly safeguard regional peace and prosperity.

In this case, I hope some Japanese politicians will listen.

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