Author: falsetto Source: falsetto (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
In Kazakhstan’s general election, Tokayev has no doubt about re-election.
On November 26, Tokayev was sworn in; Then he chose to visit at the first time without stopping. He is going to Moscow. The Russian media said that the first stop of Tokayev’s visit after his re-election was Russia, which has profound political significance and certain symbolic significance.
On November 28, the talks between Tokayev and Putin in the Kremlin were very successful. The two not only signed the communiqu é on the thirtieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, but also highly emphasized that the two countries will develop alliance and integration on the basis of mutual trust, and also signed a number of economic cooperation agreements.
In short, the two men’s talks involve cooperation at the political, economic and military levels.
01 Political collaboration
According to media reports, the meeting was held on the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan. The two sides signed a declaration outlining the main geopolitical positions of the two countries.
The declaration states: “The Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan advocate the depoliticization of the activities of multilateral economic organizations without political orientation, so as to ensure an effective response to the challenges faced in the field of international trade and economic relations as soon as possible.”
——Cooperation without political orientation is a political attitude in itself, that is, the two countries cooperate in an equal manner and respect each other. There is no big brother and little brother relationship between the United States and its allies.
Why emphasize this position?
On the one hand, at the beginning of this year, Kazakhstan was in turmoil and Russia helped. At that time, the public opinion circles regarded Russia as Kazakhstan’s big brother.
On the other hand, after Russia launched the Ukraine War, Kazakhstan did not agree with Russia’s territorial claim to Ukraine. Because Kazakhstan itself has many Russians who are also worried about encountering the difficulties of Ukraine. There are also voices in the public opinion circles that Kazakhstan is anti Russian.
In fact, for Kazakhstan, Russia is an important neighbor that cannot be moved away. It neither wants to be Russia’s younger brother nor its enemy. So Kazakhstan needs such a declaration that it is an independent sovereign country and will choose its own policies according to its own interests.
But in reality, Kazakhstan and Russia are not isolated from each other at the political level, but CIS allies (members of the Collective Security Organization). The last time the CST held a summit in Armenia, it was not very pleasant.
In order to maintain the political ties between the CIS, Tokayev and Putin said that the priority of Kazakhstan and Russia’s foreign policy is the CIS; It was also pointed out in the declaration that “the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan will continue to actively cooperate to promote the CIS integration process”—— Under equal conditions, brothers continue to do so.
When Russia fell into the situation of western sanctions due to the Ukraine war, Tokayev’s visit to Russia this time was politically a blessing in the snow.
02 Military Cooperation
When it comes to military cooperation, it is difficult to achieve equality between large and small countries. Take the United States as an example, they basically go to their allies’ homes to garrison. Russia’s previous thinking is similar to that of the United States, which likes to send troops to other countries to do business. However, at this stage, Kazakhstan is unlikely to accept new Russian troops (Russia still has some troops stationed at Baikonur Space Launch Site in Kazakhstan to maintain space safety); Because that would create new political inequalities.
So how to ensure both political equality and military cooperation? Tokayev and Putin pointed out that “the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea signed on August 12, 2018 should be promoted to enter into force at an early date, and all the principles of activities of Caspian coastal countries stipulated in the Convention should be observed, so as to improve the efficiency of Caspian cooperation
”?
There are two main contents of the Caspian Sea Convention:
1? To stipulate the sovereign rights of the Caspian Sea coastal countries over the resources of the Caspian Sea;
2? It is stipulated that there shall be no extraterritorial troops in the Caspian Sea area.
These two articles can be said to be the basis for cooperation between Russia and Central Asian countries. As I have described many times in previous articles, the two core assets lost in the disintegration of the Soviet Union are the Black Sea Azov Sea resource belt
And
Caspian Sea energy belt. If Russia wants to regain its influence in the Soviet era, it will certainly find an excuse to fight against these two places.
In the Ukraine war, Russia was very angry about NATO’s eastward expansion, and another main goal was to fight for the Black Sea – Azov Sea resource belt (that is, Crimea and its two sides).
Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries are also worried about Russia’s attack on the Caspian Sea energy belt.
Russia wants to live in peace with Kazakhstan and other countries
The sovereignty of coastal countries over the resources of the Caspian Sea “is the basis—— It is equivalent to the commitment that Russia must make to Kazakhstan and other countries.
In addition, in order to dispel Russia’s concerns (NATO countries intervene in the Caspian Sea like Ukraine), Kazakhstan and other countries should confirm that “the Caspian Sea
There shall be no troops outside the region “—— This is equivalent to the commitment of Kazakhstan and other countries to Russia.
With such a military commitment, the two sides will be able to cooperate better politically.
03 Economic cooperation
The essence of military and political cooperation is to serve the economy.
In the talks between Tokayev and Putin, it was confirmed that the two countries would engage in specialized production cooperation in all industrial fields, with emphasis on the energy field.
The declaration states: “The Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan will continue to create convenient technical and economic conditions for the transit transport of energy to a third country through the territory of the other country in accordance with their international obligations.”
The press secretary of the President of Kazakhstan, Ruslan Gerdubai, explained on social media: “During the talks in the Kremlin, the presidents of Kazakhstan and Russia talked about the establishment of a
‘
Tripartite Natural Gas Alliance
’
The purpose is to coordinate the transport of Russian natural gas through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “
This tripartite natural gas alliance means:
1. Kazakhstan’s energy can be transported westward through the Russian pipeline, and then enter the European market through Türkiye.
——This is good for Kazakhstan.
2. Russia’s natural gas can be exported to the east through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
——This is good for Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
3. There is also a potential possibility that Russian energy can go to the West in the name of Kazakhstan.
——Now the Western sanctions on Russian energy can be said to hurt both sides. As the Ukrainian war fell into a tug of war, Russia and Europe could not die of old age and not communicate with each other. If Kazakhstan is allowed to be a middleman, Russian energy will become Kazakhstan’s energy, which is equivalent to a rinse. In this way, the West can indirectly use lower priced energy without violating the sanctions against Russia. At present, this is only a potential possibility. As long as there is demand between Russia and Europe, this potential exists.
04 Considerations
Finally, I will think about Tokayev’s visit to Russia.
1. Tokayev is very wise.
He did not turn to the West as the Ukrainian leadership did, making Russia feel threatened. When Russia was isolated, it did not follow the Western sanctions against Russia.
2. Tokayev is very pragmatic.
Without compromising with Russia, he chose a pragmatic attitude to cooperate with Russia and basically achieved his goal. After all, the two countries are neighbors that cannot be moved.
3. Tokayev’s ability was confirmed.
Kazakhstan under his leadership has cooperation with Russia, China, the United States and other major countries, even India, Turkey and other countries; He is a qualified leader who strives for the welfare of Kazakhstan.
In short, Kazakhstan, a country with a weak sense of existence, is lucky to have a leader like Tokayev. If Ukrainian politicians had the same level, the situation would be much better.