Original: guziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019
This evening, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate resolution and deliver the dot matrix of interest rate hike expectations.
It is expected that Fed chairman Powell will raise interest rates by 75 basis points, the strongest interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve since the end of the cold war.
Moreover, at the next month’s meeting, the Federal Reserve also has a high probability of “breaking the pot” and increasing 75 basis points again. The American people will feel a one-time 150 basis points interest rate increase within a month.
The last such urgent interest rate hike occurred during the Carter administration, which led to the failure of the Democratic president to be re elected.
Now, in the face of record and runaway inflation pressure, Biden and the democratic government have to give up the employment rate that determines the party’s support rate and raise interest rates sharply by hawks before the fateful mid-term elections.
Although Putin’s special military action pulled the leg, it forced the Biden government to adopt the “dove before the eagle” type of interest rate hike, missed the opportunity to curb inflation at the beginning of the year, and presented a huge cake to trump.
On November 8, five months later, 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 seats in the US Senate will be re elected. At present, in the Republican primary, Trump’s “endorsement” confidant candidate has almost won a one-sided victory.
This means that if the democratic party loses the house and Senate because of inflation and employment rate, the United States will usher in the first “shadow president” who controls parliament in history next year.
Of course, the hawkish interest rate hike in the United States will not only affect the United States itself, but also the European Union and the five eye alliance, which participate in the “unified market” of the dollar, will be forced to follow the Federal Reserve to substantially raise interest rates, raising global financing costs, and accelerating the withdrawal of excess currencies from emerging countries in the era of the epidemic.
Many friends do not understand the impact of the withdrawal of the US dollar, because the last round of large-scale withdrawal of the US dollar from emerging countries dates back to the 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis 25 years ago. At that time, the mainland had not joined the world market and could not feel the impact of capital withdrawal.
The latest global capital withdrawal, which should have been triggered in 2018, was suspended by trump.
In that year, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, India and Russia suffered the most. Their capital fled wildly, and their exchange rates fell to dogs. Even the local tyrant Saudi Arabia broke out in a debt crisis. They had to kill the goose to lay the eggs, sell Aramco, and catch the Lord for ransom.
As a result, in 2019, trump, the “great man from heaven”, started to cut interest rates, which suddenly turned the US dollar that had been withdrawn into a backflow, quickly put the global economy back on track from the turmoil, and dashed the plan of western developed countries to jointly use the tide of the US dollar to shear sheep.
Although Trump’s trump’s eight fist trade war has beaten the world’s major economies, the US interest rate cut and money printing has stimulated a surge in global consumption, enabling all emerging economies to make full use of their power to live a good life in dollars, and resolving a wave of deliberate harvest of emerging countries by the us elite.
This is also an angle that can explain that the leaders of emerging countries such as Russia, Turkey, Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia do not give us president Biden face and are doggedly fighting over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. From food and fertilizer to oil, coal and natural gas, everyone is hand in hand to connect global inflation to the sky.
After talking about history and looking forward to the future, the next two months will be the match point of the decisive battle between the United States and Russia. The economy will gradually surpass the military and become the key to decide which side the balance begins to fall to.
The Federal Reserve is likely to launch a super Eagle interest rate hike totaling about 150 basis points, which will not only suppress the commodity export prices of emerging countries and domestic inflation, but also promote the rapid withdrawal of western capital from emerging countries. Represented by a visit to Saudi Arabia, the Federal Reserve will divide Trump’s allies, smash down oil prices and inflation quickly, and win a decisive victory before the parliamentary vote.
Russia, on the other hand, may use energy and food sticks more frequently and in a more extreme way, cooperate with military action and public opinion, and maintain global inflation and oil prices at a high level, triggering infighting between the Biden government and European allies such as France, Germany and Italy, and allowing the United States to beat the door on inflation and unemployment, making it easier for its old friend trump to become a shadow president, withdraw from special military operations with dignity, and eat part of Ukraine.
When both sides reach the point of a decisive battle, they will naturally sell their interests substantially in order to win over a third party.
The White House formally expressed its willingness to cut tariffs last night. Putin called today and promised that the Northeast could also “build roads if you want to be rich”, following the five Central Asian countries.
Calculate the country’s account books, and then calculate what they can sell. Perhaps it is better to continue the fight between the United States and Russia.
Alas, let the Ukrainian people suffer more