Original: Tianya mending knife source: wechat official account: Tianya current affairs has been authorized to reprint
Recently, the party struggle in the United States has been extremely fierce, and both sides have almost entered a crazy state!
Why is it so fierce?
Because the United States will face “mid-term elections” in November 2022.
The so-called “mid-term elections” are the re-election of some governors and legislators.
How important is the mid-term election?
At present, Biden’s Democratic Party holds the majority of seats in the house of Representatives, and its seats in the Senate are the same as those of the Republicans. Once Trump’s Republican Party holds the majority of seats in the 2022 mid-term elections, Biden will become a “slope foot” President completely – the US House of representatives controls the financial power, and the Senate controls the power of personnel appointment. Once Biden loses the house of Representatives and the Senate, Then Biden will “accomplish nothing” in the next two years.
At present, half of the primary elections in the mid-term elections have passed. According to the announced results of the multi state primary elections, the Democratic Party is likely to suffer a “major impact” in the mid-term elections in November, and repeat the mistakes of the mid-term elections in 1994 – at that time, the Democratic Party lost a large number of congressional seats and congressional control after the elections.
Gallup, a polling agency, said in a latest report: “2022 is likely to be a year of overwhelming victory for the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party’s control of Congress is facing a very pessimistic environment.”
The momentum of the Republican Party led by trump is very strong!
In the impression of many people, after trump stepped down, he felt that his influence was not as great as before.
That’s not the case at all!
Since all the major media in the United States support Biden, including the New York Times and the Washington Post, as well as twitter and Facebook of social media, they all adopt selective reports – only report Trump’s negative news, and any positive news is ignored by them – so we can’t see much information about trump in the world.
Unlike Biden, who “dozes off” all day, trump is almost the same as before. He still goes to various states to deliver various speeches, still scolds the Democratic Party and teases Biden
Every time trump went to give a speech, the scene was full, and every time he gave a speech, trump would say: look, here is the CNN reporter area, and there is the Washington Post reporter area… These fake news reporters came to our scene every time, but they never reported on us
Then, the audience will make a lot of “hush” to those reporters!
To be honest, trump is really different from a traditional politician. His speech can be recognized by ordinary people.
How much influence does trump have in the United States?
Let’s just say that Trump’s words can make you governor or congressman.
Let’s take Vance, the Republican candidate for the Senate in Ohio, as an example.
Vance, a Republican, has always opposed trump and constantly attacked trump, saying that “the trump phenomenon is cultural heroin”, “trump is the opium of the people” and “trump is the Hitler of the United States”… Therefore, when he participated in the Ohio Senator election, his support rate was almost the lowest!
However, just because of Trump’s “I support him”, Vance, who was at the bottom of the support rate, suddenly achieved the highest support rate and finally won the seat of Parliament.
The green line in the figure below shows the change of Vance’s support rate:
Why should trump support an anti him man?
There are two people who have played a very important role: one is Donald Trump, Jr., the eldest son of trump and his first wife Ivana; The other is the famous Fox TV host Tucker Carlson.
Both of them are very good.
At first, many people thought that Trump’s eldest daughter Ivanka had high political talents, and trump had always wanted to push Ivanka to the front, but facts proved that Ivanka was a “helpless ah Dou”.
On the contrary, donaldtrump Jr. showed amazing political talent during the U.S. general election, and he absolutely supported and defended Trump – after trump was blocked by twitter and Facebook, Tang continued to fight with the Democratic Party in the media, thus gaining great political influence!
Tucker Not to mention Carlson.
Maybe we Chinese don’t know this man very well, but few people in the United States don’t know him!
He is a famous host of Fox TV, which is a conservative media and one of the few major media supporting the Republican Party. His programs are watched by at least 3million-5million Americans every night.
Why did these two people help Vance? How did they persuade trump?
Because Vance is also very famous, he wrote a very popular book called the elegy of the countryman, which has a great influence. He has dominated the best seller list of the New York Times for 80 weeks, and won many awards, such as the first recommended book in Bloomberg’s annual book list, the first book of the year in the Washington Post, and the top ten non fiction books in time magazine
You can know from the name of this book that he is a conservative and stands on the side of “red neck”. Therefore, he is well-known among the white people at the bottom.
It is for this reason that trump Jr. and Carlson found trump and said to trump: if you support this person and “subdue” this person, it will not only help to further improve your support rate, but also show your “magnanimity”!
Of course, Vance must have gone to trump Jr. and Carlson as lobbyists. He must have promised them that he would fully support trump after winning.
Then, during his speech, trump said to the voters: “this is a ‘little bastard’ who has attacked me. But you know, many people have attacked me. It doesn’t matter. He is still the one I trust. If you want to bring historic victory to the United States in Ohio, then choose the little fat Vance. I trust him and I support him.”
In this sentence, Vance’s support rate began to soar, from the initial 11% to 32.2%, and finally won the seat of Ohio State Senator.
After winning the parliamentary seat, Vance immediately deleted all the articles and remarks that had reviled trump in the past, and said in an interview with the media: “I repent of my past attacks on trump, and my life has experienced an epiphany.”
Not only Vance, there are many such examples!
For example, when trump was elected president, the spokesman of the State Department was Augustus.
This person had never been elected to any political position before, but she served as the spokesman of the State Department during Trump’s time. After trump lost the election, she saw that trump still had unparalleled influence. Then she took her whole family to visit trump, wanted trump to support her to join the Tennessee congressman, and got Trump’s support.
She wrote in her election statement: “as a U.S. Naval Reserve, I am responding to the call to serve my country. I will never shrink back. I will fight for my country and the people of Tennessee and support the greatness of the United States. I am very grateful to President trump for his support. I look forward to your vote and stand with you to protect our conservative values.”
Then her approval rating soared.
In addition to Augustus, there is another person who also has the support of trump, White House spokesman Sanders.
This man is even more powerful.
After he resigned as the White House spokesman in july2019, Sanders began to prepare for the election, and officially announced his participation in the Arkansas governor’s election in January 2021.
After winning Trump’s support, she received the support of small Republican donors as soon as she entered the election. In October 2021, she raised more than $11million, 10 times as much as her opponent.
The latest poll shows that Sanders leads other Democratic candidates by nearly 10 percentage points with 43.5% support, while Sanders has no competitors within the Republican Party.
Trump’s influence is so great that anyone who wants to run for senator or governor, as long as he gets Trump’s support, his support rate will soar. On the contrary, if trump publicly criticizes a Republican, he has little chance of winning.
Trump has spared no effort to support those who are loyal to him.
However, he spared no effort to suppress those who betrayed him. Among them, the worst is lizcheney, the third person in the Republican Party.
How influential is lizcheney?
She is the eldest daughter of former US Vice President Cheney. She has served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of state for the Near East Bureau of the US State Department. She has served as a congressman and chairman of the Republican conference of the house of Representatives. She is not only a second-generation official, but also has rich political experience and great energy.
After trump lost the election, she did three things:
First, we deny Trump’s “election cheating theory” – almost all the Republican Party supports Trump’s “election cheating theory”, and lizcheney is one of the few people who admit that Biden won the presidency through legal means.
Second, he voted for Trump’s impeachment;
Third, support the establishment of a cross party group to investigate Trump’s role in the “Capitol Hill invasion”.
Can trump have room for her with his character of revenge?
Therefore, trump made a “cut” on Cheney. He held several meetings in the party to discuss Cheney’s issue. Finally, the Republican Party made a decision: Cheney violated the long-term values and interests of the Republican Party, and all Party members voted to remove Cheney, including the “chairman of the Republican conference of the house of Representatives”.
The third person in the Republican Party has no resistance to trump!
Trump’s influence is so powerful!
For trump, he is sure to participate in the presidential election in 2024.
Trump has done a lot for the 2024 general election, the most important of which is to integrate the entire Republican Party and modify the election rules.
As we all know, trump has not conceded defeat so far. One of the most important reasons is that there are too many “loopholes” in the US election process, and he believes that Biden won by taking advantage of these loopholes to “cheat”, so he organized all members of the party to “plug the loopholes” to ensure that similar situations will not occur in the 2024 election.
As we all know, the United States adopts a federal system. The power of the state government is very large. Many election rules are formulated by the state legislature and the governor. Therefore, trump convened all the Republican governors and lawmakers to meet together to formulate policies.
There are two typical things: “reducing the voting time” and re enacting the “general election certification right”.
For example, most of the blacks and ethnic minorities in the United States are supporters of the Democratic Party, but they don’t take the general election seriously. They habitually cast their votes on Sundays after the church. Therefore, after shortening the time, many ethnic minorities may miss the voting time.
In North Carolina, the state law stipulates that voting can be carried out 17 days in advance, but it can be modified to only 10 days in advance. In addition, voting cannot be carried out on Sundays in these 10 days.
In addition, enacting laws to abolish the voting rights of those who have been in prison – the crime rate of blacks is very high. Abolishing their voting rights will greatly reduce the votes of the Democratic Party. For example, in Florida, 500000 black people have been in prison. Under the new policy, those people have no right to vote, and most black people support the Democratic Party.
In addition, the Republican Party also deliberately complicates the voting process, because as soon as the voting process is complex, those blacks and ethnic minorities will be hoodwinked or afraid of trouble and will not vote.
In short, Republicans have enacted various laws in the states they control to minimize the turnout of Democratic supporters.
In addition to “shortening the voting time”, the Republican Party also modified the general election certification right: in the past, after the voters cast their votes and the counting of votes, the Secretary of state issued the “presidential election certification”. Once the certification was issued, the state basically won. Now, however, the Republican Party will transfer the power to issue the certificate from the Secretary of state to the state legislature.
What are the consequences?
For example, in the past, when Trump’s support rate was lower than that of the other state after the general election, the Secretary of state could announce the results. However, after modifying the rules, this must be certified by the state legislature – in some states, the Secretary of state is a Democrat, but the state legislature is controlled by the Republicans, just as Biden is the president of the United States, but the house of Representatives and the Senate are not necessarily democratic.
Do you know how many laws the Republicans have amended to close loopholes or suppress the turnout of Democratic voters?
In 2021 alone, 41 states proposed 216 bills to intervene in elections or politicize and criminalize elections.
All the Republicans have tried their best for Trump’s 2024 election!
Trump is now equivalent to the “Sichuan emperor” in the Republican Party. He exists as an emperor. No one dares to disobey him. Everyone must curry favor with him, or his political future will be completely ruined!
People like trump are called “strongmen”, and his politics is the so-called “strongman politics”.
Under the strong influence of trump, the entire Republican Party is firmly surrounded by trump, and the cohesion of the party is very strong!
In contrast, Biden was a “counsellor” without any ideas, and the party was very chaotic: Sanders, the far left wing in the Democratic Party, had contradictions with Biden, vice president Harris had contradictions with Biden, and Pelosi was not a fuel-efficient lamp… Biden was simply unable to control these people!
In addition, after Biden took office, he made a mess of things, and the White House team was also very chaotic!
After Biden took office, he withdrew his troops from Afghanistan, allowing the Taliban to gain power in Afghanistan almost without firing a shot, which is known as the “Saigon moment”; After Biden came to power, he failed to control the epidemic, and the cumulative death toll reached 1million; After Biden took office, the economy was in a mess, and inflation hit a new high of 8.6% in more than 40 years; After Biden came to power, the constant arch fire led to the occurrence of the Russian Ukrainian war
It is for these reasons that some US media believe that the US mid-term election in 2022 may replicate the results of 1994: in 1994, the Republican Party had a net 52 seats in the house of Representatives, increasing from 178 to 230, while the Democratic Party dropped from 256 to 204.
With the mid-term elections approaching, the Democratic Party is very likely to suffer a disastrous defeat.
Once the democratic party loses control of Congress, Biden will be constrained everywhere and can’t do anything. It will last until the general election in 2024.
Judging from the current situation, trump has an exceptionally high probability of winning in 2024. Once trump takes office, it is bound to completely overthrow all the policies formulated during the Biden administration!
Let the United States continue its internal struggle like this. Let’s watch the play quietly!
—–This concludes the full text.