Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war in early March, Zhanhao emphasized in his analysis that the situation of non game between major powers between China and the United States has undergone major qualitative changes.
Zhanhao’s view is that if the main goal of the United States in the past was to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, then after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, the United States will be committed to provoking military conflicts and even large-scale wars around China, so the United States will certainly accelerate the provocation in the Taiwan Strait in the future.
The outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war means that the probability of a new cold war has greatly increased. The United States will inevitably seek to promote the formation of a new cold war, create conflicts and wars around China, let capital flee China, and then the whole western countries carry out comprehensive containment and suppression against China. This is the ultimate goal of the United States.
In this process, Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) has always believed that the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are conflicts that the United States must want to provoke. In the South China Sea, the United States is out of control. For the time being, he has not found a local grasp that can help the United States mess up the South China Sea. However, in the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, his grasp has been nearly ten years.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait, in particular, is undergoing a qualitative change. As for qualitative change, we can see the leopard through the events in the last two days.
First thing: the United States and Taiwan launch the “21st century trade initiative”
According to media reports, on June 1, U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Bianchi held a video meeting with Taiwan representatives, announcing the launch of the “21st century trade initiative” between the United States and Taiwan. Tsai ing Wen said that the launch of the initiative is an important progress in Taiwan US economic and trade relations.
Obviously, this is already an official exchange between the United States and the Taiwan authorities. In this regard, zhaolijian, spokesman of the Chinese foreign ministry, made it clear that China has always resolutely opposed any form of official exchanges between countries with diplomatic relations and Taiwan, including the negotiation and signing of agreements with sovereignty and official nature. Recently, the US side has made frequent moves and tricks on the Taiwan issue. In essence, it has violated the one China principle, supported and encouraged the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, and disrupted peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Zhaolijian warned the United States. The US side’s insistence on playing the “Taiwan card” will only bring Sino US relations into a dangerous situation. Zhaolijian also warned the DPP authorities that they should stop the calculation of “relying on the United States for independence” as soon as possible, otherwise the higher they jumped, the worse they fell.
Why does the United States start the “21st century trade initiative” at this time?
In Zhanhao’s view, this is actually a part of the economic framework of the United States, India and the Pacific, but Taiwan, China province of China has been singled out. For the United States, the Indo Pacific economic framework now has 13 member states. This mechanism is similar to the TPP launched during the Obama era. After trump gave up the TPP, Biden did not want to pick up people’s wisdom, so he developed an Indo Pacific economic framework. For the United States, it is politically necessary to include Taiwan in the U.S. economic system, but in terms of practical interests, it is afraid that it will affect the promotion of the entire Indo Pacific economic framework, so it came up with a so-called “trade initiative for the 21st century” to avoid the strong rebound of China caused by the inclusion of Taiwan, China Province in the Indo Pacific economic framework, which will lead to the difficult birth of the Indo Pacific economic framework. The intention of the United States is to turn the economic card of Taiwan into a bargaining chip with China.
Now you should see why the United States has not cancelled the tariffs imposed by the trump administration on Chinese goods exported to the United States? That is because the white house still wants to use the tariff reduction to get some special benefits from China, but it is clear that China has no interest in it. After a year and a half, the Biden administration has come up with this “21st century trade initiative” to try to continue blackmail China. Of course, China will not accept this, so the competition between China and the United States will continue.
However, we can also see from another direction that the United States’ attempt to integrate Taiwan into the US economic system is also a real measure. The purpose of the United States in doing so is, on the one hand, to make “one China” a virtual reality, to make Sino US relations a virtual reality and to make us Taiwan relations a real reality. In essence, all this is a means for the United States to stimulate the Taiwan authorities to move towards “Taiwan independence”. It is an attempt by the United States to guide the Taiwan authorities and Taiwan society to believe that the time has come to “seek independence” and to implement the “Taiwan independence” action. On the other hand, we should also realize that Taiwan is the main foundry base of global chips, and the United States of course also needs to integrate Taiwan’s economy into its own system strategically.
Second thing: the US Department of defense is planning US Taiwan military cooperation
According to the global network on June 1, when meeting with Tsai ing Wen, the leader of the Taiwan authorities, U.S. Senator Davos, who was visiting Taipei, said: “the U.S. Department of defense is actively planning cooperation between the U.S. National Guard and the Taiwan military.” During his visit to Taiwan, Davos was accompanied by the head of the National Partnership Program of the US National Guard. The “National Partnership Program” means that the U.S. National Guard will cooperate with its partners to conduct training and “work together”.
Although the US National Guard is part of the US armed forces, it is still different from the US military. Unlike the U.S. military, which is completely subordinate to the central government, the national guard is subordinate to the States and governed by the States. Only under special circumstances can it be recruited by the U.S. federal government, and it is commanded and dispatched by the States on a daily basis.
In general, the national guard does not perform national defense tasks and mainly plays a role as a reserve force for the army. Its main tasks are to safeguard the security interests of the state and local governments, maintain social stability and participate in rescue and disaster relief in accordance with the orders of the Ministry of national defense and the governors of various states; In wartime, the federal government has the right to mobilize the National Guard Forces for active service. The expenses of the National Guard are shared by the federal and state governments.
So, we can’t help but ask, why does the US government definitely promote the cooperation between the US National Guard and the Taiwan military? According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), the United States has two purposes:
First, we continue to play a marginal role, which not only promotes us Taiwan military cooperation, but also reduces our sensitivity. In this way, we can not tear our face with China. If we go directly to the US military, the contradiction may intensify. Since the United States still has the “one China” commitment, the direct relationship between the US military and the Taiwan military is ultimately a more sensitive state.
Second, the United States wants to help Taiwan build a multi-level defense capability. As we all know, the United States is now committed to its “porcupine” strategy, trying to build Taiwan into a “porcupine” with thorns to prevent the PLA. However, the United States also knows that the strength gap between the Taiwan army and the people’s Liberation Army is too large, so a series of measures should be taken. In fact, this action is part of the measures to help Taiwan establish such paramilitary units, so as to help Taiwan establish a paramilitary force with only operational capability without increasing the size of Taiwan’s regular army and without calculating military expenditure, so as to quietly improve Taiwan’s overall operational capability.
The United States also knows that once the people’s Liberation Army launches a war of reunification, it will inevitably occupy the Taiwan Island. In this case, the United States helps the Taiwan authorities build paramilitary institutions to prepare for the future operations of the Taiwan army after the PLA logs in. From this, we can also see that the United States is ready for the mainland to liberate Taiwan, but it hopes that through its operation, China will fall into the quagmire of war.
Moreover, from the perspective of the United States, helping Taiwan develop paramilitary units can actually break through the restrictions on military spending and help Taiwan expand its military through other non military budget methods. Of course, in the process of military expansion, the United States can obtain these contracts and orders and make a lot of money.
However, Chinese Mainland is clear about these actions of the United States and Taiwan. Therefore, during the visit of Davos to Taiwan, PLA military aircraft launched a large-scale multi service and arms joint combat readiness patrol in the waters around Taiwan, including 9 types of aircraft and 30 sorties. This is a warning and specific measures for the United States and Taiwan. As a matter of fact, there are various signs that everyone has been working in different places, which also means that when the equivalent has changed to a qualitative change, the action of reunifying Taiwan will be completed in a very short time.
Another thing we need to see is that Tsai ing Wen inspected the Marine Corps of the Taiwan Army on June 2. According to Taiwan media reports, Tsai ing Wen carried Taiwan’s self-made “kestrel” anti armor rocket launcher and conducted simulation operations. It looks like a show, but in fact it has very strong political significance. Tsai ing Wen used this method to release sensitive signals at this sensitive point, especially to the United States, that is, Taiwan is willing to show strong military strength to the mainland. Furthermore, this is a signal to the United States that “seeking independence by force”. She wants to further obtain more military support from the United States and promote us Taiwan cooperation economically.
Obviously, after receiving the relevant signals from Tsai ing Wen, the United States will accelerate the economic and military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, and the process of “Taiwan independence” will be accelerated. Tsai ing Wen certainly hopes so, but we must be highly vigilant, be prepared to unify Taiwan by force, and be ready to take action at any time! The reunification of Taiwan will happen because the evolution of the situation is instantaneous. The more prepared we are, the more beneficial it will be to us!
The United States and Taiwan will never die if they do not act. They are really pushed to the point where the people’s Liberation Army will take action. It is really a landslide! Wait and see!