Original: guziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019
The crisis has a strong redistributive effect, which will lead to the transfer of great powers’ power and major changes in the international economic order.
This sentence is taken from the authoritative person’s comparative study of the two global crises.
Many times, based on the pride of big countries, we have focused on the “transfer of power of big countries” and neglected the more important “major changes in the international economic order”.
In 1975, in the face of the rampant capitalist crisis, with the dollar crisis, the oil crisis and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the victorious countries in World War II, the United States, Britain, France and Canada, absorbed the defeated countries Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada to establish the group of seven. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Russia, the old enemy of the cold war, was absorbed into the group of eight and became the decision-making force of the world economy.
In 1999, in order to prevent the Asian financial storm from bloodbath capitalism, the group of eight proposed the establishment of the group of 20 in Cologne, Germany. Then, in 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, China and the United States joined hands, and the group of 20 held its first summit in Washington, replacing the group of eight as the most important cooperation mechanism in the global economy.
If it were not for the crisis, the vested interest groups would not give way to the latecomers, and the international economic order would not be adjusted accordingly.
Now, a new round of global crisis is at hand, but this time, there have been some changes in the situation that we should have abandoned our past grievances and worked together.
With the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the five eye alliance countries are at odds with Russia one after another. They put pressure on Indonesia, the chairman of the 20th rotating presidency this year, asked Putin to be excluded from the list of participants, and lobbied around to seek to deprive Russia of the G20 seat.
Although the Bali summit in November this year will not be canceled, the possibility of the G20 countries working together to eliminate the global economic crisis before it broke out has become very small with the outbreak of war.
Moreover, the world formed two camps based on whether to condemn and sanction Russia, and held a hero conference and a hero conference almost at the same time.
The EU summit was held in Brussels on the 23rd, and Ukraine and Moldova will be granted EU candidate status to kick off the next G7 and NATO summit. This time, outside NATO, the United States invited Japan, South Korea, Canada and Australia to form a “developed countries alliance”.
The day before yesterday, the BRICs summit was also held in Beijing. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa and the world’s five strongest developing countries also gathered together through the Internet. Modi, bosonaro and ramafossa, who refused to condemn the sanctions against Russia, also attended the opening ceremony with Putin and delivered a speech.
Just as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system created the G7, which was upgraded to the G8 after the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the G20 created by the Southeast Asian crisis became the leading organization of the global economy after the subprime mortgage crisis.
In 2009, after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, China, Russia, Pakistan and India organized the BRICs Cooperation summit in Yekaterinburg, and invited South Africa to join after the European debt crisis in 2011, changing from the BRICs to the BRICs.
Under the mechanism of the BRICs, the original capitalist colonies, such as the Greater China economic circle, the Eurasian Economic Union economic circle, the southern American economic circle, the South Asian subcontinent economic circle, and the southern African economic circle, are united with the raw material market.
There are many reasons for this round of inflation explosion in Europe and the United States, from currency abuse to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
However, there is a reason that can not be ignored. The vast number of emerging economies no longer bargain internally and no longer provide cheap raw materials and primary manufactures to developed countries. (Note: Baotou Steel and North rare earth announced on the 22nd that the trading price of rare earth mines increased by 46%)
However, the developed countries are subject to domestic populism and capitalist interest groups, and will have to pay high ransom to resource monopoly groups for votes.
It can be predicted that, driven by interests, emerging economies, from Argentina to Saudi Arabia, from Iran to Turkey, which have visited mysterious oriental powers this year, are also seeking to join the BRICs “hero alliance” to obtain shelter in the upcoming global financial storm.
During the crisis, the developed countries’ Alliance carried out scientific and technological embargo and financial capital withdrawal; Developing countries should establish an alliance of origin for grain, animal husbandry, oil, natural gas, rare earth and lithium minerals.
This is a scene never seen in any crisis in human history, and it is also the biggest variable that has not changed in a century.
In the next few days, NATO will take advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to form a broader alliance of developed countries, and the BRICs countries will also try their best to coordinate internally and modify the rules to accommodate more BRICs partners.
Whoever gets his own internal control will be able to take one step in the race.
It can be predicted that in order to gain more trust and support, Russia will prove its invincibility by force on the military battlefield and reassure emerging countries; On the diplomatic battlefield, the competition between Saudi Arabia, Argentina and other BRICs candidates will be the top priority of our major country diplomacy this summer.