Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
In most normal times, Ukraine and North Korea didn’t have a strong sense of existence, and they didn’t have much contact with each other.
In a few abnormal years, North Korea and Ukraine have a strong sense of existence, such as the Korean War in the last century and the ongoing Ukrainian war.
However, these two countries, which have a low sense of existence in normal times and a strong sense of existence in abnormal times, had an intimate contact and broke off diplomatic relations on July 13.
The reason is that on July 13, the Deputy Foreign Minister of the DPRK met with the Russian ambassador to the DPRK in Pyongyang and submitted a note recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Subsequently, the Ministry of foreign affairs of Ukraine announced the severance of diplomatic relations with North Korea.
This is probably the first close contact between the two countries in a long time, which ended in a complete breakup.
When I saw the news, I was slightly surprised. Because there are huge risks hidden in this matter.
Before Russia launched the Ukrainian war, one of the flags was to liberate the Russians in eastern Ukraine.
The so-called Dongwu refers specifically to Donetsk and Lugansk. Before sending troops, Russia quickly recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.
However, Russia has been fighting for so long that few sovereign countries recognize Donetsk and Lugansk as independent countries. Most of the countries that joined the former Soviet Union made it clear that they did not recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Kazakhstan, in particular, had a good relationship with Russia, but also resolutely did not recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk. Its president Tokaev said in front of Putin in St. Petersburg that Donetsk and Lugansk were not independent countries. Because of this, many people in Russia are very dissatisfied with Kazakhstan. Some time ago, there were minor twists and turns in bilateral relations.
Belarus, Russia’s staunchest ally, also did not publicly recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Before July 13, only Syria publicly recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk. Syria admitted it because Putin had a life-saving grace to the Assad regime. If Putin had not sent troops decisively at the beginning, the Assad regime would have been overthrown by the west a few years ago.
In addition to Syria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk. But these two old irons themselves are not independent countries in the global village. They are separatist forces in Georgia, and their ultimate intention is to join Russia.
Having said so much is to show that North Korea could have stayed out of the war in Ukraine without choosing sides. Now that North Korea recognizes the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk, it is equivalent to telling the world that it stands with Russia.
North Korea’s standing in line with Russia will cost a lot.
Behind Ukraine is the whole west, and North Korea stands in line with Russia, which is equivalent to standing on the opposite side of the whole west. Of course, North Korea has stood on the opposite side of the West for decades and has rich experience.
But to be honest, the North Korean economy has not improved in recent years, a very important reason is the Western blockade and sanctions. Throughout the traditional Chinese civilization circle, Japan and South Korea have become developed countries, China is on the road of national rejuvenation, even Vietnam has begun to develop at a high speed, and only North Korea is still standing still.
If North Korea wants to develop rapidly, it still needs the west to lift the blockade and sanctions. Now that North Korea is in line with Russia, it is obviously not conducive to the lifting of the blockade and sanctions by the West.
In that case, why should North Korea do so?
A very important reason is that the current international situation is turbulent. After Yin Xiyue came to power, the South Korean government was seriously right leaning, which was mainly manifested in clinging to the thigh of the United States, improving relations with Japan, and being extremely unfriendly to North Korea.
In addition, South Korea also wants to get close to NATO and has joined the NATO Cyber Defense Center, which is also a threat to North Korea.
In this way, North Korea will feel the pressure from South Korea and the United States. This time, Russia is actually looking for more strong supporters. This is a dangerous signal, which means that the international pattern is more volatile and the world is more torn apart.
As we all know, Russia has broken its face with the West. If North Korea is at risk, Russia can act quickly without fear. China needs to consider a multi-party game, not like Russia, which starts with a disagreement. In a sense, North Korea is not against Ukraine, but for its own geopolitical security.
The last time in the Korean battlefield, China directly shot, and the Soviet Union stood in the rear. If there is a crisis in North Korea again, it may also be a situation in which Russia takes direct action and China stands behind. Again, this is just a description of a potential possibility.