Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
Recently, there have been some “strange” phenomena on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield. Although Ukraine’s “great counter offensive” has not achieved much, it looks like “victory after victory”; The Russian army recently gave up several important towns in Kharkov, and on the contrary, it seems to be “gradually defeated and retreated”. Many comrades in arms said they couldn’t understand it. They left a message hoping Zhanhao could analyze and interpret it.
What is the nature of Ukraine’s “great counter offensive”? Where does the power come from?
The so-called “great counterattack” of Ukraine has actually been shouted by Zelensky for several months, but he has not seen it before. The fundamental reason is that the strength is insufficient, and the Russian army has been attacking on a large scale at that time. So, why is the strength enough recently? There are three reasons:
The first reason: the United States has just given us $7 billion in military assistance, and has given great support to the Ukrainian army, including intelligence and air defense
Not long ago, the United States announced that it would increase its military assistance to Ukraine by more than $7 billion. Although these equipment may not necessarily have been delivered to Ukraine, it is clear that the United States has already delivered a large number of weapons, including some powerful rockets such as the “haimas” and some air defense missiles in secret.
In fact, the US military’s intelligence support to the Ukrainian army has also been upgraded, such as UAVs, early warning aircraft, radar, satellites… The US military’s intelligence support to the Ukrainian army is all-round. Therefore, after accumulating for several months and the United States provided a large number of weapons, the so-called “great counter offensive” was really realized.
2? The Russian army continued to be unable to advance on the battlefield, and its fatigue was obvious
Before the Ukrainian army’s “great counter offensive”, we should see a basic phenomenon, that is, the Russian army can no longer advance on the battlefield. There are many reasons for this failure, but there are mainly three aspects:
First, Russia has been in strategic hesitation since May. The reason is that the Putin government believes that if it continues to push forward, it needs to invest more resources, which has strategic risks for Russia. Therefore, Russia hopes to observe the changes in Sino US relations. Especially after Pelosi announced that she will visit Taiwan, Russia’s mentality is to wait and see.
Second, the Russian army is not strong enough. Only a little more than 100000 troops have been invested, and then scattered north and south. The territory of Ukraine is 600000 square kilometers. Now the Russian army has occupied a quarter of it, which is simply not enough. As for the local armed forces in Donetsk and Lugansk, on the one hand, their fighting capacity is not good, and on the other hand, they are obviously lack of motivation to further attack westward, which makes the Russian army’s ability to continue to advance obviously weak.
Third, the equipment and combat methods of the Russian army have become backward. The Russian army failed to respond to the “haimax” Rockets provided by the US military. The fundamental reason is that it did not have an integrated surveillance and strike UAV, but used precision guided weapons to fight. The cost of Russia is too high and the inventory is not large. Therefore, in the end, Russia has few countermeasures against the weapons newly provided by the US military. If there were China’s advanced UAVs, attacking these things would be as simple as chopping melons and vegetables, but the Russian army did not.
Of course, now that it has taken several months, the Russian army is also mentally tired. Some main forces have gone back to rest and recuperate. In the absence of more fresh troops, we can see the sluggishness of the Russian army’s attack on the battlefield. With this delay, the Ukrainian army certainly saw an opportunity.
3? If the Ukrainian army does not make some achievements, they will not receive military assistance again
For Ukraine, the situation is not optimistic. If it was not for the continuous and strong military assistance of the US military, the Ukrainian army would not have been able to fight this war. In the past, Europe has suspended its assistance to the Ukrainian army, and even Poland, which was once eager to try, has become less active. It is also because European allies suspended their assistance to the Ukrainian army that the US military increased its assistance, otherwise the Ukrainian army would collapse.
It is against this background that the Zelensky government is striving to achieve some results, so this time the Ukrainian army is still “working hard” to fight, but the effect is very poor. It has suffered heavy losses in the south but failed to achieve any results.
Then, was the Russian army in the North repelled by the Ukrainian army?
For this so-called “great counter offensive”, the Russian army found a very favorable situation for itself, that is, compared with the Russian army chasing the Ukrainian army to fight, the Ukrainian army “counter offensive” came to the Russian army with higher operational efficiency, easier to attack the Ukrainian army, and certainly better results. Therefore, in the southern battlefield, the Russian army used the Ukrainian army’s “great counter offensive” to destroy a large number of Ukrainian troops, such as more than 1200 Ukrainian troops in one day. The Ukrainian army was shut out in the South and suffered heavy losses, so it turned to the northern battlefield to attack.
Compared with the southern battlefield, the Russian army lost several fortress sites in the northern Kharkov region that had been occupied for a period of time. However, the Russian Army thought that the defense cost was too high and the cost might be high, so it took the initiative to withdraw.
Fundamentally speaking, the reason why the Russian army took the initiative to withdraw was that it had too few troops. Obviously, Russia must not lose the southern region, so most of the Russian troops are deployed in the southern region. As for the northern Kharkov region, although several important towns were captured before, on the one hand, the front was stretched too long, and on the other hand, the deployment of troops in the North was much weaker than that in the south. In this case, the losses of the Russian army and the Ukrainian army in the North would be even greater. For Russia at present, it is more important to keep the Donbass region stable. The important towns of Kharkov can be taken back at any time when necessary.
Moreover, more importantly, Putin has just signed the order of increasing troops, and the effective date of this order is January 1, 2023. Even if preparations are made now, the increase of troops will still take some time. Therefore, for Russia, if the location is not so important and the cost of holding is high, it is better to withdraw first for the time being. Of course, for Russia, they are also waiting for winter, which should be more suitable for them to fight.
Together, the above-mentioned factors are very important for Russia to readjust its deployment. Just like the Russian army gave up attacking Kiev after a stalemate for more than a month, this time the nature is similar, that is, the Russian army needs to take back its fist, re deploy its military department, and then fight again to be more powerful.
Moreover, compared with the previous fight, the Russian army found that the Ukrainian army’s “counterattack” was more comfortable, cheaper and more effective. Under such circumstances, the Russian army is of course willing to take advantage of the Ukrainian army’s “counterattack” and fight in the most comfortable way.
In Zhanhao’s view (wechat official account: Zhanhao), the Russian army has another intention, that is, to wait until the energy weapons it has taken in winter come into play. Now, although Russia has cut off natural gas transmission to Europe, the EU still has gas reserves for the time being, so the two sides are still deadlocked. However, in winter, the situation is different. When the European Union is really out of gas and the weather is unbearably cold, the external environment will be more conducive to Russia’s fierce attack when the society of European countries is unstable.
Pro Russian military analysts shared maps on the 9th, showing that the number of places where Ukrainian troops recaptured control increased
Moreover, from now on, the United States is trying to drag down Russia through consumption, while Russia is accumulating strength to try to drag down the West. Where does Russia’s strength come from? The very important reason is that at this Oriental Economic Forum, China and Russia signed the energy settlement in local currency, and Russian institutions also got a window to borrow RMB from China, which is undoubtedly a major gospel for the Russian economy. When Russia’s economy is stable, it will be more calm in strategy and tactics. Of course, it can afford to spend it.
Therefore, when everything is stable, Russia’s tactical adjustment is completed, and the time is right, the Russian army’s fierce fist will be launched. Since it is a foregone conclusion that Ukraine can not be eaten at one go, how to fight this war for Russia must require careful consideration and deliberation. Moreover, from Ukraine’s perspective, this so-called “great counterattack” is not indefinite, and it can only last for a relatively short time. To maintain this situation, we must provide a larger scale of assistance, which will consume a lot.
This is not. After Kharkov’s Russian army made some “achievements” in withdrawing the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian foreign minister immediately announced that “the Russian army can be defeated”, but “more weapons are needed”. Then, should the United States and Europe provide more and better weapons?
If there is no assistance, the battlefield may collapse at any time; If it is aid, it will be a large amount of expenditure… In particular, it should be pointed out that when the Russian army withdraws its fist and then strikes, it will be a heavy blow. Once the Ukrainian army is defeated, it will be a further torture to Europe.
Therefore, the acquisition of several towns by the Ukrainian army after the withdrawal of the Russian army for the time being is not enough to make any changes to the battlefield. The real changes will have to wait for a while. After the Russian army makes the adjustment and deployment again, and then looks at the effect of the battlefield, we can really know the next evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine!
Russia is a big country and Ukraine is a small country. Russia can only consume this kind of consumption when Russia cannot retreat. Ukraine needs external blood transfusion to consume it. Under such circumstances, how long does Ukraine consume energy?
In the world, China now has the largest weight. Every weight China puts will have a huge impact. The settlement agreement signed by China and Russia this time will have a great impact in the long run. So, relevant countries should take it easy and don’t mess with China, otherwise… They should understand the consequences!