Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu
On June 7, the 104th day of the Russian Ukrainian war, a very strange scene appeared on the Chinese Internet.
Some we media who knew nothing about geopolitics and military affairs suddenly began to quote the official news of Ukraine and boasted that “Ukraine is launching a major counterattack in northern Donetsk and regaining 20% of its territory”.
The Russia Ukraine war is the first war that broke out in the “social media era” in human history. Three forces have been trying to spread false information and mislead the public:
First, the western media led by the United States and Britain, out of the need of anti Russia, constantly preach the bravery of the Ukrainian army and constantly belittle the actions of the Russian army. It is very funny that after they cheered again and again that “the Ukrainian army has suffered a major setback for the Russian army”, Ukrainian President Zelensky personally admitted a few days ago that since the war, Ukraine has lost about 20% of its territory;
Second, in order to boost morale, prolong the period of resistance and avoid a nationwide collapse, the Ukrainian government has constantly publicized the “war fruits” of the Ukrainian army. In the past two days, they have shot down their Su-27 fighter planes by the Ukrainian army and publicized them as a result of the war. It is really unimaginable;
Third, influenced by Western media, some Chinese we media people who hold the position of “pro american and anti Russian” have become the “mouthpiece” of Western media, constantly shouting “Russia will lose”. They took every progress made by the Ukrainian army and every setback encountered by the Russian army as the latest evidence to support their position.
I personally don’t understand the third kind of people.
In essence, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a contradiction between Russia and the United States. It is the result of the United States continuously squeezing Russia’s strategic space after the cold war and being countered by Russia.
This war has no direct connection with China in essence. As a Chinese, it’s OK to watch the war, but don’t “get too involved in the drama” and follow the United States to shout “Russia will lose”. This is a typical practice of regardless of right and wrong and ignoring the facts. It’s also a “stupid and bad” practice.
A columnist on a domestic commercial website claimed to be an expert on military issues. Before February 24, he concluded that all parties were acting and there would be no conflict; After February 24, he has been advocating the argument that “the Ukrainian army is extremely brave and Russia will be defeated”.
Many people asked me, “is this man reliable?”?
My answer is very simple. To see whether an expert is reliable, we should look at his past analysis, research and prediction.
The Internet has memory.
For a “bricklayer” who has always made mistakes in research and judgment and has always made inaccurate predictions, you don’t need to waste time paying attention to what shocking remarks he has made.
On February 17, I predicted that Vladimir Putin would never go empty and war would be inevitable. At the beginning of March, I concluded that “Russia underestimated Ukraine and the United States underestimated Russia”. In this war, Russia will undoubtedly win, but at what cost.
In fact, I have bolder predictions. Next, we can see whether they will be verified:
First, Ukraine will not only lose, but will also lose at least 40% of its territory.
Shortly after the outbreak of the war, Russia gave Ukraine the opportunity for peace talks. At that time, Ukraine once put forward conditions such as maintaining neutrality and demanding security guarantees. However, with the obstruction of the United States and other western countries, the position of Ukrainian President Zelensky changed three times a day, leading to the fruitless conclusion of the negotiations.
Since then, Russia has begun to focus on the battlefield, because Russia is very clear that “what is not available on the battlefield is even less likely to be available on the negotiation table”.
Sometimes, for those of us who pay attention to the war situation every day, ZELINSKY’s statement will give people an illusion.
He once declared that Ukraine would not give up the Donbas region, but also take back Crimea.
Some readers joked that ZELINSKY’s statement would make you mistakenly think that the Ukrainian army had already hit the bottom of Moscow.
Next, Russia will play steadily in the Donbas region. At present, the Russian army is close to winning Lugansk, and the next step will be to win Donetsk. In addition to zaporoze and Kherson, Russia has opened the land channel from Crimea to Donbas.
(Ukraine will eventually lose at least 40% of its territory)
Just when some Chinese we media hyped the Ukrainian army’s great counter offensive, Russia was planning the third phase of military action. Russia’s goal is very clear, that is, to win Kharkov in the north, Nikolayev and Odessa in the south. Although Russia has not made it clear, the comparison of the pro Russian Dnepropetrovsk is also an obvious goal.
Russia is indeed making slow progress on the battlefield. At this rate, it will take about 4-6 weeks for the Russian army to take all the Donbas area and consolidate the achievements in zaporoze and Kherson. Especially in some urban areas, the tough battles will be very difficult and time-consuming.
After that, within about 12 weeks, Russia is likely to gradually complete the third phase of its military objectives, thus completely turning Ukraine into a landlocked country.
At that time, Ukraine will lose at least 40%-45% of its territory.
According to the current situation, if the possibility of Ukraine changing its position and returning to the negotiating table is not considered, Russia may basically complete the main objectives of this “special military operation” before the end of November 2022.
After that, it is up to Ukraine to talk.
If the talks fail, Russia and Ukraine will have a long-term confrontation along the line of “Kharkov Dnepropetrovsk Nikolayev Odessa” close to western Ukraine.
Second, the United States will not give up Zelensky, but it is impossible to support Ukraine in a large-scale counter offensive. What the United States wants is for Ukraine to continue to make supplies and maintain a medium to low intensity confrontation and conflict with Russia for a long time.
So far, the United States has publicly promised to provide about $46billion in assistance to Ukraine.
The political, diplomatic and military assistance of the United States is the biggest driving force that Ukraine can support up to now.
It can also be said that it was the obstruction of the United States that prevented Zelensky from making peace with Russia as soon as possible.
The goal of the United States is very simple. It is to make full use of Ukrainian blood and continue to consume Russia without direct military conflict with Russia.
For the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has a perfect model in its mind – “the war in Afghanistan in the Soviet era”.
The United States hopes that by supporting the Ukrainians to launch anti Russian guerrilla warfare in areas controlled by Russia, the United States will support the Ukrainian army to maintain a low-intensity war on the front line of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and continue to “bleed” Russia until Russia collapses.
But up to now, the United States has obviously underestimated Russia. The extreme sanctions launched by the United States against Russia did not bring down the Russian economy, let alone create a strong anti Putin movement in Russia.
Some readers pointed out that Russia has a vast territory, rich in oil, natural gas, coal and other resources, and is also a major exporter of wheat, corn and other grains and fertilizers in the world. Russia has enough capital to keep up with Ukraine and the United States.
As far as the American political system is concerned, no matter how much people support the United States to intervene in any external conflict at the beginning, as the heat of the news decreases, the attention of the American people will soon shift, and the marginal income that American politicians can obtain by supporting Ukraine continues to decline. There will also be voices in the United States to support Ukraine in ending the war with Russia through negotiations. At this time, the United States’ support for Ukraine will also continue to decrease.
The United States is also worried that after the long-term issue of Ukraine, the United States can consume Russia, but its assistance to Ukraine may also evolve into a “bottomless pit”, thus turning this conflict into a consumption of Russia to the United States.
We can think about how much the United States is willing to spend to fill this “big hole” after providing us $46billion in assistance to Ukraine in order to contain China and try to win over ASEAN, but it is only willing to spend US $150million in the end?
Third, Russia will not collapse, but will choose a completely different path of national development.
Those who shout that “Russia will lose” are completely taking the stand first.
No one should underestimate a country that once defeated Napoleon and Hitler.
Over the past 200 years, Russia has always been a big country in Europe. Especially after the “battle of Waterloo” in 1815, Russia once became the “European gendarme” to save the feudal dynasties of European countries that were crumbling due to the revolution. Its influence reached its peak for a period of time.
Russia’s tenacity is determined by its territory, natural resources and national character.
These things did not change 200 years ago, nor did they change in essence 200 years later.
After this war, Russia is actually ready to cut with the West.
Under the circumstances that the United States, Britain, the European Union and other western countries have launched extreme sanctions against Russia, engaged in various decoupling actions, and constantly humiliated Russia, Russia has at least given up its plan to reintegrate into Europe in the short and medium term. In the future, Russia’s national development strategy must be “looking east”.
In the future, Russia will pay more attention to international organizations such as the CSTO, the SCO and the BRICs countries, and will pay more attention to its relations with China and India. In particular, China and India, as the world’s two largest countries with the largest population and the fastest development, both pursue independent foreign policies different from those of the west, which gives Russia a lot of strategic room for maneuver.
Finally, I would like to say that “Russia will not collapse and Russia cannot collapse”. This is not only an objective judgment based on Russia’s own strength, but also a bottom line choice that the Chinese people must make based on the overall situation of the Sino US game.
Everyone with a clear eye knows that if Russia collapses, the United States will be the happiest.
At that time, the United States can foster a pro western government in Russia, which will create strong pressure on China from the north. At the same time, the United States can free up its hands and go all out to deal with China in the Asia Pacific region.
As a Chinese, how stupid is it to follow the United States and “shout that Russia will lose”?