Unconsciously, the United States has been left behind by China!

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Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668

Who has the advantage and who has the disadvantage in the Sino US science and technology war? Seeing this problem, many people must think that the United States has the advantage and China is at a disadvantage. After all, Chinese chips are now stuck in the neck by the United States.

On the surface, it is true that the United States has suppressed China and blocked China’s neck in chip manufacturing, making Huawei, a Chinese chip enterprise, catch up with or even surpass American chips in terms of technology and performance. However, due to the lack of high-level chip OEM capacity in Chinese Mainland, its development is now stagnant. Objectively speaking, China is indeed choked by the United States, which also shows that China still lags far behind the United States in the chip field.

However, if we look at the problem from a higher dimension, the result is just the opposite. In the Sino US war of science and technology, the United States seems to have temporarily suppressed China tactically, but it is China that has suppressed the United States strategically.

On this point, let’s first look at a set of data. According to the news released by the Ministry of industry and information technology on June 6, 2019, the Ministry of industry and information technology officially issued 5g license on June 6, 2019, which was at least half a year to one year ahead of the expected time. In the past three years, 5g in China has achieved great development. The Ministry of industry and information technology said that China has entered a critical period to promote the large-scale application of 5g technology.

I remember when the 5g license was issued, Zhanhao asserted that China would cover the rural areas with BTSs in about three years. At that time, many people did not believe it. So, in three years, what achievements have China made in 5g?

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, up to now, 1.615 million 5g base stations have been built across China, and 654000 new 5g base stations will be added in 2021. China’s 5g network has been built into the largest 5g network in the world. The 5g network covers all cities, counties, urban areas and 87% of towns and townships in China. The total number of 5g mobile phone users exceeds 413million. The number of 5g base stations in China accounts for 70% of the world.

So, what is the current situation of 5g development in the United States? Three years later, the number of 5g base stations in the United States is less than 100000, nearly one twentieth of that in China. The number of 5g users in China and the United States is also totally different. China has reached 413million, while the United States has less than 10 million people. This is the gap between China and the United States in three years! Compared with China, the United States has seriously lagged behind China in the 5g field, which will bring four irreversible serious consequences to the United States:

1? The operating efficiency of the whole society in the United States lags far behind that of China

In the 2G era, the United States is in a dominant position in technology, and CDMA is one of the two 2G standards; In the 3G era, CDMA is the core technology of the three technologies. However, in the 4G era, the situation has changed. LTE, a 4G standard jointly launched by China and Europe, has won a victory, and the United States has begun to lag behind. At 5g, China has gained the standard advantage. We can see this from Qualcomm’s patent revenue.

In the first quarter of 2022, Qualcomm’s technology licensing division had a revenue of $1.58 billion, but in 2016, its full year revenue was $7.664 billion, with an average quarterly revenue of $1.916 billion, far higher than today. The fundamental reason for the decline in Qualcomm’s royalty revenue is that Qualcomm has lost its leading edge in 4G and 5g, especially in 5g. Huawei’s patents are far ahead of others. In recent years when the price of mobile phones has been rising, even Qualcomm’s patent revenue has declined. It can be seen that the United States has been severely hit in this field.

Reflected in social work and life, the United States has seriously lagged behind China as early as 4G. In China, the 4G network speed is very fast, which has greatly improved China’s social operation efficiency. For example, three of the four new inventions previously hyped: high-speed rail, code scanning payment, bike sharing and online shopping are related to the development of 4G in China. China’s Internet payment is very developed, while the United States is much worse. Now, when the 5g era comes, the result of the backwardness of the United States is the further decline of social operation efficiency, lagging behind China.

Compared with China, there are fewer Americans. If the operating efficiency of the whole society continues to ebb and flow, the results of China US competition in the future will be self-evident.

2? The driving force for economic and social development will be different

It is self-evident that the development of 4G is a driving force for China’s economic and social development. Take the Internet industry as an example. In the past, microblog and wechat dominated the world, but after the development of 4G, today’s headlines, Tiktok, Kwai and other enterprises have sprung up. As you can see now, has the mobile phone become an extension of our body? Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that 4G is a great driving force for the development of our country.

Compared with 4G, 5g China has a greater leading edge, so the United States can never compare with China in terms of 5g’s driving force for national social development in the future.

3? It will form a sustained and serious blow to the development of American Information Industry

The United States has stuck China’s neck on the chip, imposed crazy sanctions on Chinese technology enterprises, including Huawei, and continuously blocked the normal development of Huawei’s business worldwide. This has directly led to the disorder of the global supply chain, and the result is a sharp decline in the sales of mobile terminals.

In the first quarter of 2022, the global smartphone market shipped 326million units, down 8% year on year and 12% month on month. With such a sharp decline, we can imagine the intensity of market competition. What about China? According to the shipment data of the domestic mobile phone market in March this year released by the China Academy of telecommunications, the total shipment of the domestic mobile phone market in March 2022 was 21.46 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40.5%. In the first quarter of this year, the overall shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market was 69.346 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2% and a sharp drop of nearly 30%.

The sharp drop in mobile phone shipments is due to the epidemic and economic reasons on the one hand, and the interference of the United States on the other hand. The global mobile phone supply chain has been disordered. So what is the result? This will greatly weaken the technology transformation speed of American chip enterprises. Imagine how fierce the competition in the market is when the global mobile phone shipments have plummeted so much. When the speed of technology transformation into economic cycle in the United States is greatly affected, the innovation breakthroughs of these enterprises will become slower and slower.

In sharp contrast to the United States, China is investing more and more in chips, and it will certainly break through one after another in a few years. We can see the result of this change now.

4? The United States will lag behind China more in the 6G era in the future

On one occasion, Ren Zhengfei said in an interview with CCTV that it is impossible for the United States to directly jump from 4G to 6G, because the development of 6G is based on 5g, and it is impossible to eat fat at one go. Only after 5g is developed can 6G be developed on the basis of 5g in the future, so it is impossible for the United States to directly upgrade from 4G to 6G.

In fact, China has long started the exploration of 6G. On June 6, Wang Tao, executive director of Huawei and director of ICT infrastructure business management committee, said at the industry summit jointly organized by China Mobile, Huawei and other major enterprises: “we should inherit the successful experience of 5g development, accelerate 5.5G technology innovation and achieve commercial leadership. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the total number of” 5g+ industrial Internet “projects under construction nationwide has reached 2400, creating more than 20000 5g application scenarios.

As you can see, the United States has been subordinate to China in the 5g field. In the face of China’s speed, the backwardness of the United States will be long-term and strategic. As for the neck of American card Chinese chips, this does not hinder China’s progress. On the contrary, China’s industrial layout around 5g development is very large and relatively mature. As for American chips, in this environment, sooner or later they will be conquered by China. At that time, the United States will not know where to cry!

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