Us forecast: in 2030, China will have 450 warships, including 10 aircraft carriers!

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Source: Guoke Huanyu

How large will the Chinese Navy be in 2030?

The launching of the 003 aircraft carrier of our army has aroused great concern all over the world. The launching of this aircraft carrier will be a milestone in the development of our navy.

The western countries, led by the United States, have always been biased and even hostile to the development of China’s military power.

Both official documents such as the report on China’s military strength written by the US Department of defense and articles published by think tank scholars in national interests and diplomat have made predictions on the future scale and combat effectiveness of China’s navy.

There is a very popular saying that China’s navy will have 450 warships by 2030, including 10 aircraft carriers.

Will this prediction come true?


1? How many aircraft carriers can we build in China?

In recent years, China’s navy has made great development and progress. Two aircraft carriers have been put into service one after another, amphibious assault ships have been officially listed, and 055 large drive has also started the dumpling mode.

According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of defense, the number of naval vessels of China’s navy will reach more than 350 in the middle of 2021, surpassing the 307 of the U.S. military.

In the same year, the Chinese Navy launched 29 new ships of various types, with a total displacement of 170000 tons, equivalent to more than half of the French navy.

From this point of view, it seems unlikely that our army will have 450 warships of various types by 2030. Our army can even achieve the goals set by foreign media ahead of schedule.

But does this development meet the needs of our country?


What’s more, the purpose of these think tanks and even the US Department of defense to issue the so-called China’s military strength survey and development forecast is to create China threat theory to a large extent.

For example, among the 350 naval vessels of various types counted by the U.S. military last year, there are actually nearly 90 missile speedboats and more than 50 light frigates, which can only operate offshore.

It is also a common means for the US military to ask Congress to increase military spending by simply accumulating the number of these ships and 055, 052d and other major ships without considering combat effectiveness, so as to create such a Chinese threat theory, which cannot be fully accepted.


So how many ships will our navy build in the future, and to what extent will the fleet scale reach?

The author believes that around 2030, the fleet size of China’s navy will still be maintained at about 350, and the aircraft carrier will reach 6.

The first is the size of the fleet.

Although the current ship construction speed of our army is very fast, in fact, with the adjustment of China’s marine strategy and the construction of ocean fleets, these new ships need to be used to replace ships that no longer meet the needs of our army.


The missile speedboat type 022 and the light frigate type 056 mentioned above will be gradually eliminated by the navy in the future, and the scale of the total fleet will not change much.

At present, the Chinese navy has begun to seal up the 022 missile boat, and some 056 light protection has been handed over to the coast guard for use.

The second is the number of aircraft carriers. Why do I think our army will have six aircraft carriers by 2030? We might as well make statistics.

The first two aircraft carriers that need to be counted are the Shandong and Liaoning aircraft carriers that have entered service and formed combat effectiveness.

Although these two aircraft carriers are improved Kuznetsov class of the former Soviet Union, they are relatively mature and are the backbone of the current combat power of our navy.

The 3rd and 4th aircraft carriers of our army are type 003. The first ship of type 003 is expected to be launched this month or next month and will be commissioned in 2024. The second ship may be commissioned this year and in 2028.

The 5th and 6th aircraft carriers should be type 004 nuclear powered aircraft carriers. If the construction of the first and second ships of this type of aircraft carrier can be started before 2024, it is not difficult to achieve the goal of six aircraft carriers in service in 2030.

This is also a relatively reasonable aircraft carrier development plan.


On the one hand, China is a peace loving country. The goal of building our army is to safeguard national interests and sovereignty, not to cause trouble everywhere like the United States.

Therefore, China’s defense expenditure has been maintained at about 1.2% of GDP for a long time, far below the average level of major countries of about 2%.

If we suddenly build a large number of aircraft carriers, we will undoubtedly need to invest more funds, manpower and material resources, resulting in an increase in military spending and crowding out funds for economic construction


Under the guidance of this idea, China’s strategic goal is to open up the Eurasian continent, incubate secondary markets such as Central Asia and Africa, and form a stable internal circulation.

Therefore, China’s Navy does not need to compete with the United States for control over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, but takes the protection of the eastern coastal ports and the maritime Silk Road route as its main goal.

To achieve this goal, it is a bit extravagant to build a huge ocean going fleet that is fully aligned with the US Navy.

In contrast, it is cheaper to build overseas bases, land-based aviation forces, intermediate guidance forces, and an appropriate ocean fleet to build a fortress belt covering the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, which is also most in line with China’s national conditions.


Therefore, our army should not rush to build too many aircraft carriers. In the foreseeable future, our navy will maintain a relatively stable state of development.

By 2030, the progress of China’s navy will be mainly reflected in the quality. At that time, more advanced ships will join the combat sequence of our army.

However, the construction and development of our navy is only aimed at protecting the interests and well-being of the Chinese people.

Under the condition that the United States does not actively use physical means to interfere in China’s internal affairs and infringe on China’s national interests, our army will not provoke a conflict with the United States Army.

However, even so, the United States is still full of hostility and anxiety towards the development of China’s military strength, which is reflected in the continuous creation of the China threat theory.


2? Is the US Navy worried?

Since our army will not take the initiative to challenge the US Army, what is the anxiety of the United States? I think there are two points.

The first point is that the US Navy has shown a tendency of backwardness in some technical fields, and these technologies can often change the rules of the game of naval warfare.

For example, ship borne hypersonic weapons.

In April this year, the Chinese Navy showed a high-profile shipborne anti-ship ballistic missile – Eagle strike XX in a promotional film.

In the reentry process at the end of the trajectory, this missile can use the unique double cone aerodynamic design to achieve hypersonic glide above Mach 5 in the atmosphere.

This can not only greatly extend the missile range, but also avoid the interception of the enemy’s air defense and antimissile system.

Anti-ship ballistic missile is a weapon that the U.S. fleet can not defend at present, and it is also a veritable aircraft carrier killer.


This means that if the enemy fleet is outside this range, our anti-ship ballistic missiles will not be able to strike it.

The emergence of Shipborne anti-ship ballistic missiles gives our army the ability to launch hypersonic attacks in any region.

It is reported that the range of the eagle strike XX shipborne anti-ship ballistic missile exposed this time is more than 1000 km, which has exceeded the strike range of anti-ship missiles mounted on US aircraft carriers.

It can be said that the current Chinese navy has a killer weapon that forms a unilateral advantage over the U.S. military, while the CPS shipborne hypersonic missile, a similar weapon in the U.S. military, has not been successfully developed.


At present, the most advanced warship of our army is the 055 large missile destroyer, which is equipped with an integrated RF management system and a general vertical launch unit.

The core of the 055 integrated RF system is the 346a dual band active phased array radar, which is composed of a group of 4 X-band fire control irradiation radars and a group of 4 s/c band search / tracking radars.

The American aleppok IIA destroyer uses spy-1d passive phased array radar as search and tracking radar and an/spg-62 mechanical scanning radar as fire control and illumination radar.

In comparison, the radar system of all phased array system makes 055 have far more firepower channel reserves than Burke IIA, and its ability to resist saturation attack is greatly enhanced.


In order to counter 055, the U.S. military has also put forward corresponding plans to build the aleppok III destroyer also equipped with spy-6 dual band active phased array radar.

However, the first Burke III ship, ddg-124 Harvey Barnum, is still in the process of sea trials, and it is still unknown when it will be commissioned.

At present, our army has built 8 type 055 ships, of which 6 are in service. It can be said that our army is ahead of the US Army for the first time in terms of surface combat ships.

Although the U.S. Navy is still the largest maritime armed force in the world today, the U.S. military has already felt crisis and pressure due to our anti overstepping in some areas. This is the first reason for the anxiety of the U.S. military.


If a country’s Navy wants to have long-term vitality, it must have a strong shipbuilding industry chain. However, the hollowing out of American industry has weakened its shipbuilding ability to a great extent.

After the end of the cold war, the United States shut down a total of 14 shipyards. Today, only Newport shipyard, bath steel plant and Ingels shipyard are still capable of building large ships.

In 2021, nine large state-owned shipyards in China were merged into the world’s largest shipbuilding group through the merger of North and South ships. In addition, many private shipbuilding companies with a certain scale formed a strong shipbuilding industry chain in China.

In 2021, the order amount of China’s shipbuilding industry accounted for 44% of the global total market, ranking first in the world and nearly 100 times that of the United States.


This has greatly affected the construction of warships.

Take aircraft carrier construction as an example. At present, Newport shipyard is the only shipyard in the United States that can build aircraft carriers. In the task of building the first Ford class aircraft carrier, Newport shipyard shows a low shipbuilding level.

As the limit load of the gantry crane in Newport shipyard is only 1050 tons, the Ford class is forced to adopt a more conservative scheme in the division of sections, using the tower construction method of foundation.

In addition, due to the lack of pre outfitting capacity, the construction period of the Ford class first ship was seriously delayed. It took a full eight years from the commencement of construction in 2005 to the launching in 2013.

Even compared with the four-year construction cycle when Nimitz was built, the shipbuilding capacity of the United States has suffered a serious decline.


In addition, these shipyards are equipped with large gantry cranes with a load of 1600 tons, and also have a large number of experienced technicians and various advanced equipment.

During the construction of 002 aircraft carrier, it took Dalian Shipyard only 2 years and 9 months to complete the process of launching the first steel plate.

The 003 aircraft carrier construction project undertaken by Shanghai Jiangnan Shipyard is expected to take about four years.

On the whole, if the hollowing out of American industry continues to develop, the US Army will soon lose the ability to build ships quickly, while China can maintain the current “dumpling” state. This is the second point of American anxiety.


3? The United States needs to face up to the rise of China

The United States today cannot accept the fact that it is weakening.

In the past, when encountering hot issues, the president of the United States would always first ask, “where is our nearest aircraft carrier battle group?”.

The United States has always been used to interfering in other countries’ internal affairs and drawing overseas interests with powerful military forces.

With the growth of China’s military strength, the United States has lost the ability to rely on several aircraft carrier battle groups in the Western Pacific.

The current anxiety of the United States about the development of China’s military strength is actually that it does not want to give up its “privilege” in the international community.

Under such circumstances, the United States, which is unwilling to face up to the growth of our military strength, will naturally concoct some “China Threat Theory” to win over its allies against China.

But no matter what the United States says, China only needs to take its own path of development step by step!

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