Source: wechat official account: Bu Yi Dao has been authorized to reprint
Pen / hatchet & amp; Tiger knife
Will Guam become the “Pearl Harbor of the 21st century”?
Americans have repeatedly issued such warnings, especially recently. In their depiction, the Chinese people’s Liberation Army would sneak into Guam and destroy the US military base on the island.
Is this the third world war?
However, the US military is making real preparations and is stepping up the upgrading of its military defense capability in Guam to “guard against possible attacks by China”.
According to the US military media and experts, as an important US military base in the Western Pacific, Guam is upgrading its missile defense system.
Many US and Western military experts believe that the current missile defense capability of Guam is not enough to deal with the possible comprehensive missile attack launched by China. Therefore, it is urgent to upgrade it as soon as possible to improve Guam’s viability after the crisis and protect the US citizens on the island.
Moreover, these experts believe that “as long as Guam can still play its role, it will help reduce the success rate of the PLA’s invasion and occupation of Taiwan.”.
Lieutenant general Jon hill, director of the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and vice admiral of the Navy, recently disclosed the progress of building a substantially upgraded air defense and anti missile system in Guam when attending the 2022 space and missile defense Symposium.
Hill directly pointed out that Guam is now facing “upgraded threats”, especially from China, including increasingly advanced ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, new hypersonic weapons, and even potential threats from space. These threats may be launched from multiple different platforms at the same time.
In fact, from the Pentagon to the US Indian Pacific Command and the US missile defense department, we have spared no effort to strengthen Guam’s military capability in recent years. In order to cope with the so-called “Chinese military threat”, the Indian Pacific Command of the US military has put forward the plan of “dispersing deterrence”. Guam is one of the cores of this plan.
However, the US military still feels that the pace of building Guam into a “forward military fortress” is slow.
In fact, the draft budget of the United States for fiscal year 2023 has listed US $892 million, including the plan of the missile defense agency to build ballistic missile defense capability and hypersonic missile defense capability in Guam, while the United States Army is responsible for the cruise missile defense system. The two systems have some overlapping capabilities.
However, the confrontation between spear and shield is never simple or linear.
Whether Guam can intercept missiles from PLA aircraft, warships and land-based platforms depends on the number of incoming missiles and anti missile systems on the one hand, and the performance of the two systems on the other.
Therefore, the exact number of interceptors, sensors, command and control nodes and other components of Guam’s anti missile defense system has not yet been finalized.
However, the US missile defense agency and the US Army have basically decided to deploy the most advanced ballistic missile and cruise missile defense systems in Guam, including the “THAAD” system and the experimental unit equipped with the Israeli made “Iron Dome” anti missile system. The United States mainly focuses on the latter’s anti cruise missile capability.
Not long ago, British Aerospace Systems (BAE) announced that it had obtained a contract from Lockheed Martin to design and manufacture the next generation infrared seeker for the interceptor missile of the “THAAD” anti missile system, and to provide key sensing and guidance capabilities against the threat of ballistic missiles.
BAE Systems claims that its seeker technology can find and lock missiles with a speed of 17000 miles (27300 kilometers) per hour, so that the “THAAD” guidance system can guide interceptors to respond to incoming missile threats in a more timely manner. The source also pointed out that the high-altitude interception capability of “THAAD” has reduced the risk of ballistic and hypersonic weapons.
In the US “decentralized deterrence” plan, in addition to Guam, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and even some Southeast Asian allies are all considered.
Against this background, not only Guam, but also the territories of Australia, Japan, South Korea and other allies, the United States is doing everything possible to strengthen the deployment of Anti Ballistic Missile facilities and connect with the United States’ anti ballistic missile network, forming a larger Anti Ballistic Missile Network in the Asia Pacific region.
Not long ago, the US Navy held a “Pacific dragon-22” antimissile exercise in the waters near Hawaii, including warships from South Korea, Japan, Australia and Canada. This is the first time that Australian and Canadian warships have participated in this exercise.
Moreover, “Pacific dragon-22” is the first time in this series of exercises that the “standard-3” block ia missile is used to intercept the short-range ballistic missile target.
The “Pacific dragon” series of exercises are mainly conducted near the US Pacific Missile Range to conduct ballistic missile detection and tracking. Because this year’s exercise is a live missile interception, it has taken an important step from missile early warning, tracking, and simulated interception to live missile interception.
It should be noted that under the banner of “guarding against China and Russia”, the United States is “bringing Australia, Japan and South Korea together”. In fact, it is particularly important to strengthen the connectivity, interoperability and interoperability among the three countries and between the armed forces of the three countries and the US military.
In the future, once something happens in East Asia or even in the Taiwan Strait, the ultimate goal of the United States is to quickly form a relatively complete anti missile early warning network. Although the United States sometimes says that it is targeting the DPRK, once it has this capability, it can certainly be used for missiles against China.
Guam is known as the westernmost territory of the United States. It is far from the United States mainland, but it is relatively close to the East Asian mainland. Guam is about 2700 kilometers away from Taiwan. After the end of the Second World War, it became one of the most important military bases of the United States in the second island chain.
Now, the United States is trying to play up the possibility that Guam may become another “Pearl Harbor”, in fact, it wants to convey the “Chinese missile threat” to its Asia Pacific allies as much as possible.
From the perspective of range, Guam is already within the attack range of the “Dongfeng express” of the people’s Liberation Army. Once “something happens to Taiwan”, Guam is very close and plays a vital role in military security. Moreover, Guam may also serve as a logistics hub and a transit “base axis” for weapons platforms.
Guam has deployed the fifth generation F-22 and F-35 fighters and B-2 stealth bombers of the US military, and it is also the only US submarine base in the Western Pacific. US nuclear submarines are deployed here in rotation.
Some US and Western military experts believe that if the United States decides to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, the air force and naval front forces of the United States and potential allies can conduct operations from Guam, which may include long-range attacks and air defense operations to attack and weaken the PLA’s combat capability.
In June this year, Admiral Aquilino, commander of the US Indo Pacific Command, publicly stated that Guam was facing a 360 degree threat in the face of China’s advanced missile capabilities and longer range.
Some US experts also claimed that Guam’s current defense level may not be sufficient to deal with the PLA’s comprehensive ballistic missile attack on the island. For example, the PLA is most likely to use the dongfeng-26 ballistic missile, known as the “Guam killer”, which can carry a variety of payloads from anti-ship warheads to nuclear warheads to attack Guam.
However, the most likely form of attack on Guam is ballistic missiles with conventional warheads, cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons. According to us experts, for example, dongfeng-17 hypersonic weapons are used to target the airport runways and ports on Guam. Or destroy the command and control and logistics systems of the US military, such as the C4ISR network.
Air force expert Fu Qianshao analyzed that the actual effect of the anti missile system provided by the United States to the Guam base is very limited.
We should know that the number of anti missile systems is very limited, and it is difficult to replenish them in a timely manner. I am afraid that the interception effect will be very limited under the condition of intensive attacks. In fact, the US military knows this very well. Therefore, the US deployment of the ABM weapon system in Guam is more like a deterrent.
Fu Qianshao said that the US military has been very clear that once there is a confrontation with China, these bases deployed around China will certainly be within our firepower coverage, and the survival probability is very low. Therefore, the strategy adopted by the United States now is to disperse the deployment, that is, to disperse the US troops stationed in Okinawa to other places, such as Australia and Guam, which are a little farther away.
Decentralized deployment, then concentrated fire attack, and concentrated attack on relevant targets from different medium and long-range bases. However, it is still unknown whether this strategy will work.
The base is dispersed and far away. In case of armed confrontation, how can the logistics support and normal operation of the base be ensured? How to collect intelligence information smoothly? How to integrate command and control? These are all problems. If we can not connect in time, the so-called fire gathering attack will be difficult to achieve.
According to the analysis of military experts, in fact, the US side frequently hypes the topic of Sino US military confrontation, conducts simulation exercises, and disseminates information through the media in order to aggravate regional tension and achieve its own goals.
Specifically, the United States wants to strengthen Guam’s defense through such a series of public opinion actions. Furthermore, the United States also wants to improve its military system in the Asia Pacific region and build Guam into a bridgehead.
A series of recent moves by the US side have shown this trend. For example, the number of troops stationed in the first island chain has been relatively reduced, and the US military has begun to deploy a large number to the second island chain. In addition, the manus base in Papua New Guinea, the Darwin port base in Australia, and the Tinian and Saipan islands in the Northern Mariana Islands are all being reused by the United States.
Experts said that through these actions, the US side originally intended to “kill three birds with one arrow”: it not only demonstrated its strong stand against China at home, but also obtained more budget allocations from Congress; He also showed his determination to invest in the Indo Pacific region and his “leadership” to the allies; Finally, I also want to use this to achieve the purpose of deterring China.
However, the scripts will not all follow the US side’s expectations.
On August 23, the Chinese side announced that there were military activities in the waters of the Pearl River Estuary. In addition, the Zhejiang Maritime Safety Bureau also issued a navigation warning and launched live fire in the waters of the East China Sea on August 22. Prior to this, the PLA has launched at least five maritime military exercises and missions in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, spanning the southern, Eastern and Northern theater of the PLA.
Countries in the region also see the provocations of the United States. Recently, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore warned in his speech at the National Day mass meeting that the Asia Pacific region should prepare for more intense game conflicts due to the rising tension in Sino US relations. It is obvious that Asia Pacific countries do not want to be involved in disputes among big powers. However, the US side has turned a deaf ear to this and is bent on splitting order and creating confrontation in the Asia Pacific region, which is putting the region at risk of NATO ization.
As for the statement made by the US side that “Guam is likely to become a Pearl Harbor in the 21st century”, this is another “preemptive strike” by the US side, which has shown its ferocious public opinion toward China. Behind this, the deliberate offensive actions of the United States against China often follow, and we need to be highly vigilant.