Author: Xia Feijun source: feijunsixianghui (id:feijunsixianghui)
The great changes that have not been seen in a hundred years have become more and more thunderous, and we have witnessed history again.
After the continuous decline of the yen, the euro also fell rapidly against the US dollar. On July 12, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar hit the historical threshold of 1.0000, that is, 1 euro =1 US dollar, directly returning to the valuation 20 years ago. At that time, the war in Kosovo had just ended, and we all knew what Kosovo was really fighting.
The euro is 1:1 to the dollar, but it is just another black swan after Abe’s assassination and Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy! The heavier ones are still ahead!
How to look at this matter and what kind of chain effect it will cause? Let’s talk about a few points briefly.
(I)
First smooth the timeline. Many things can be seen only when they are put together.
There have been too many major events in the past week, which are listed in chronological order as follows:
1. The unexpected death of OPEC Secretary General;
2. Prime Minister Huang Mao resigned;
3. Abe was assassinated;
4. Germany blocked aid to Ukraine and wanted to force Ukraine to stop the war and peace talks (on the one hand, the German economy issued an alarm, and the first trade deficit since reunification in 1990 was a signal; on the other hand, Scholz did not want to repeat the mistakes of Huang Mao);
5. Ukrainian ambassadors to four European countries were dismissed, and the former ambassador to Germany bore the brunt;
6. French and German leaders broke scandals one after another (the secret deal between macron and Uber, the partisan scandal of Scholz. At critical moments, there are always scandals. Who knows, the lice on the bald head are obvious);
7. The euro plummeted;
8. Biden is about to visit the Middle East
These things should be seen together. In order to alleviate its own crisis, a country has used all means regardless of eating. What is ferocious, what is no bottom line, this is it.
Before Biden’s visit to the Middle East, such major events occurred, which brought pressure to the Middle East and OPEC. To put it bluntly, Biden’s visit to the Middle East is to clean up the disobedience and keep the Middle East countries in line with the United States on energy, Russia and Middle East issues.
Eagle sauce’s inner Drama: dare not obey? Look at these recent events, feel how thick your neck is, and consider whether you are at the same level as Europe and Japan. Lao Tzu is now God blocking and killing God, Buddha blocking and killing Buddha!
(II)
Without independent sovereignty, there is no independent currency; The fatter you are, the more you will be slaughtered. This is true for both the yen and the euro.
In the game with the US dollar, the European Central Bank has been criticized for its hesitation and slow action. Do you think it’s really incompetent? Strictly speaking, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are not independent central banks.
Abe was originally a strong supporter of the Bank of Japan. When Abe was there, although the Bank of Japan also knelt down in the United States, it did not kneel down completely. Now that Abe is gone, the Bank of Japan will probably completely become a branch of the Federal Reserve, and the yen will completely become the shadow currency of the dollar. The same is true of the European Central Bank, just like the European Parliament, which has been infiltrated into a mess.
To be precise, there are only three sovereign independent countries in the world, namely, China, the United States and Russia.
(III)
There is a very vivid picture of the mysterious operation of the EU since the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Read it a little.
1. The EU spends money to fight itself;
2. The United States, Russia and Ukraine are all sponsored by the European Union;
3. Russia’s trade surplus in the first half of the year was more than 150 billion US dollars, and the European Union paid military expenses for maozi; Maozi: Thank you for the military expenses sent by European old iron;
4. Maozi ostensibly attacked Ukraine, but in fact robbed the European Union of money;
5. The United States lacks morality and Europe lacks brains;
6. Russia earns land, China and the United States make money, Ukraine loses land and the European Union loses money;
7. The United States eats a lot, but we eat slowly. The United States fought openly, and we made a fortune quietly. The euro, pound and yen are all weak. Although the ruble is rising, it is far from being an international currency. Only the US dollar and RMB are rising.
(IV)
The economic cycle and debt cycle of mankind have come to an end, and the great depression will come in an all-round way. In addition, in order to survive the crisis, the United States has been frantically harvesting and sucking blood, which has harmed the world. The global economic outlook is very gloomy.
Sri Lanka has gone bankrupt, and more Sri Lanka is still on the way; Turkey’s inflation rate is close to 80%, which is in danger; The pound also depreciated sharply against the RMB, and Li Ka Shing was scared away
The United States is now hungry. It will open its mouth and eyes to catch who eats who. Many fragile countries will be miserable this year and next.
This is a bloodless war, which is far more tragic than the real war.
This kind of tidal harvest can be supported by China and Russia, but other countries can’t. In Russia in particular, people have guns, grain, oil and gas, and are decoupled from the dollar. The United States cannot harvest him, and the ruble has been rising.
In fact, this harvest has just begun. This round of interest rate hikes in the United States will last for a long time, and the interest rate will be higher next year. Countries that have been supporting for half a year this year will have to support it again, and the later drama has not yet been staged.
The emerging countries will probably fall back. At that time, the economy will be in recession, the demand will not come up, and the oil and bulk commodities will plummet. Then, a group of resource countries will fall back, cyclic, tidal harvest.
(V)
With the global economic downturn, capital is seeking refuge. At this time, the Federal Reserve is frantically raising interest rates. At such a high interest rate, funds from all over the world will flow back to the United States to avoid risks. The appreciation of the dollar in the second half of the year is firmly set. This 100% expectation and certainty are capital’s favorite.
They will try their best to add leverage, hot money and joint speculation, and stir up the dollar and dollar assets.
“Short the euro and long the dollar” has become one of the most popular transactions for foreign exchange professionals.
(VI)
Make several predictions:
1. In the second half of the year, the dollar will continue to be strong, and the euro and yen will continue to fall; At the same time, in order to combat the ruble and Russia, commodity prices will also decline.
2. There will be more and more countries like Sri Lanka; Government bankruptcies, military coups, regional geopolitical conflicts and famines will multiply, and the bottom will have no livelihood and no way out. Terrorism and organized crime will increase. The world has entered an era of chaos.
3. When the economy can maintain development, countries can still maintain “harmony”. Once the great depression comes in an all-round way, the probability of war between countries will greatly increase. War can not only transfer internal contradictions, but also stimulate the wartime economy, but also seize resources and wealth, and receive war dividends. for instance. In a large regional country called hasic, the inflation rate has been close to 80% and the currency has depreciated by 23%. Based on the country’s consistent urination, it is estimated that war is the only option.
4. Evil forces will upgrade the virus again. In addition to covid-19, there will be other viruses, such as cholera.
5. Similar events like Abe’s assassination are likely to continue. The native factions of the servant countries of the United States will disintegrate, and agents will come to power and take full power. The servant countries and the United States will become more and more integrated. This high degree of integration and the existence of cannon fodder have greatly increased the probability of conflict.
Conclusion:
The gunfire of the Russian Ukrainian war opened the magic box, and the world entered an era of chaos from then on.
In the world of great strife, the waves are stormy, and the bridge segments appearing in history and movies are staged one after another. The future world situation will be unprecedentedly unpredictable. Every morning when you wake up, you may witness history.
The struggle and game are advancing in all directions and in depth, and their intensity is far beyond the imagination of ordinary people!
Everything pressed the fast forward button, which was urgent and intense
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