War without smoke of gunpowder: a big power contest behind a news!

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Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

Recently, due to the inauguration of “a laboratory”, it has become a hot topic in social media. I don’t have any inside information. Now I’ll deduce the details based on public information.

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Inauguration established

First of all, let’s quote the press release.

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(source: CASIC)

Now everyone is curious about what this “certain laboratory” does?

First of all, it is clear that this laboratory is subordinate to China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. Note that it is Aerospace Science and industry, not confused with the familiar Aerospace Science and technology.

The predecessor of Aerospace Science and industry and Aerospace Science and technology is the Fifth Research Institute of the Ministry of national defense, followed by the seven machine department, the Ministry of aerospace, and the electromechanical Corporation, which separated in 1999.

Aerospace Science and technology are engaged in space exploration and application. For example, our lunar exploration project and Beidou project are all achievements of Aerospace Science and technology.

Aerospace Science and industry is mainly engaged in strategic industries related to national security. Over the past 60 years, it has established a complete air defense missile weapon system, aviation missile weapon system, ballistic missile weapon system, solid carrier rocket and so on.

According to the above information (from Baidu Encyclopedia), aerospace science and industry is

For enterprises with more militarized technology, because of their special nature, aerospace science and industry is directly under the jurisdiction of the central government.

Now, we have a clear direction for Aerospace Science and industry to suddenly come up with an unnamed “certain laboratory”, which is probably not what it does (for example, aerospace is nonsense), or what it does.

Next, let’s look at the rest of the press release.

The specification of this “certain laboratory” is very high. In addition to the top leaders of the aerospace science and industry group, there are also “relevant superior leaders and leaders of joint formation units” – these two expressions are very meaningful.

We know that the aerospace science and industry group is directly under the jurisdiction of the central government, but the specific authority of the central government can not be found online. This time, it is only expressed as “relevant superior leaders” – according to the general practice, if it is a government agency, the news should be published. If the news does not publish the name of a specific department, it belongs to a confidential unit.

In addition, according to the press release, this laboratory is not set up by Aerospace Science and industry alone, but the news has not announced the specific name of another joint unit, so this joint unit is also a confidential unit.

There are generally two areas of national security units: one is related to the field of intelligence and security, and the other is related to the military field; Aerospace Science and industry is engaged in scientific and technological development, so the probability belongs to the second category.

According to the above derivation, this press release roughly describes such a piece of information:

The aerospace science and industry group, which is engaged in missiles (or missile defense systems), jointly established a laboratory with a security department. This laboratory has high specifications. At the unveiling ceremony, not only the top leaders of Aerospace Science and industry came out, but also the leaders of the jointly established security department attended, and even the superior leaders of Aerospace Science and industry (also belonging to the security department) attended!

Finally, let’s talk about what national laboratories do.

Generally speaking, there is a basic premise for the establishment of a laboratory, which is that a theoretical research is basically completed, and a laboratory needs to be established to obtain experimental data, so as to lay the foundation for the later transformation of this theory into actual products.

Therefore, the establishment of this “certain laboratory” means that a certain theoretical research has been basically completed, and now it has reached the second step – the stage of establishing the laboratory (the news says that it has begun trial operation).

Not only that, the theory verified by the experimental data in this laboratory is not trivial, so just a small laboratory is established, and it can actually allow multiple bosses to attend.

Now the question arises, is the aerospace science and industry group engaged in both missiles (we simply call it spear) and missile defense systems (we simply call it shield), so is it spear or shield in this theoretical research direction?

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decide not to speak what one was about to say

I guess blindly. I prefer “shield” personally.

Why?

Now let’s study the motivation of this news release.

First of all, this news involves many major confidential matters. According to reason, it is completely unnecessary to release information to the public. A “certain laboratory” can be quietly listed and established. No specific name needs to appear in the listing. It is directly a series of numbers of “XXXX laboratory”.

But it happens that this news will be released to the public!

It should not only be released, but also the language use has a little flavor of “waiting for words”.

Let’s take a paragraph in the news as an example.

“Relevant superior leaders, leaders of the joint organization unit, Yuan Jie, secretary and chairman of the Party group of CASIC, Lin Qing, leader of the discipline inspection and supervision group and member of the Party group, and Liu Zhu, member of the Party group and deputy general manager, attended the unveiling ceremony and jointly unveiled the laboratory”.

You see, the personnel involved in the aerospace science and industry group are introduced in detail, who and who, and what positions they hold are very clear, but when it comes to other personnel outside the aerospace science and industry group, they use “relevant superior leaders and leaders of joint formation units”.

If it is inconvenient for a confidential unit to disclose specific units and personnel, the news can be described in such a sentence – “who and who of Aerospace Science and industry group and other relevant personnel”.

However, this news just doesn’t mention it in such a stroke. The language used is “relevant superior leaders, leaders of jointly formed units”, which is a little meaningful.

Compared with “relevant personnel”, what is the difference between “relevant superior leaders and leaders of jointly formed units”?

In short, the latter is clearer than the former!

The meaning of relevant personnel is vague, and the outside world can’t guess the specific scope, while the latter clearly tells the outside world that the superior units and joint formation units have come, not ordinary people, but leaders!

So why does this news adopt this kind of secretive expression?

Here is my personal guess.

Because this news is not for ordinary people, but for Americans.

This is a special way of information transmission between China and the United States.

Ordinary people probably don’t understand the meaning of this message, but Americans do.

3 open card

Writing here, some people may have questions, will Laos and the United States pay attention to these inconspicuous information from China and study its connotation in depth?

I’m sure that Americans pay more attention to and study China than ordinary people do.

Let me tell you something. Almost all important departments of the American government have set up institutions specializing in China. To list briefly, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has a Chinese Mission Center; The Ministry of defense has three offices: China Affairs Office, China Policy Office and China working group; The Republicans in the house of representatives have a China task force; The Ministry of homeland security has a China working group; The Ministry of justice has a China action plan. In addition, the slightly famous think tanks in the United States have special China research centers.

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(source: Global Times)

All our public information has been studied and analyzed by countless people in the United States, and then written into a report, which is summarized and screened through various systems, and finally used as the basis for the United States’ decision-making on China.

As a sensitive unit like aerospace science and industry, the United States has countless pairs of eyes staring at its every move. This news is so important that the corresponding analysis report will surely be placed on the desk of big American figures soon.

Of course, the intelligence resources that Lao Mei has are far from comparable to those of ordinary people. There are basically a few that can be determined – Lao Mei, the superior unit of Aerospace Science and industry, must know, and Lao Mei generally knows several frontier directions of our national defense science and industry research. Although it is difficult for Lao Mei to master first-hand intelligence about the progress of our research, he can speculate through the general laws of scientific research.

For example, the news of the establishment of “a laboratory” is rare and valuable information for Americans, because it can prove the progress of a cutting-edge science and technology in our national defense research——

The theoretical research has been completed and entered the laboratory verification stage.

If, I mean, if the U.S. military satellite “happened” to shoot the unveiling ceremony of our “a laboratory” on July 1, then by identifying the people who attended the ceremony (important people in our important departments have detailed files. Even if the ceremony is held indoors, the people always get together and get off the bus, and it’s normal to be photographed by the satellite) – especially who is the “leader of the joint formation unit”, Then, through this person’s backward inference, we can know the name of the specific joint organization, and finally we can roughly analyze which field of major theories our “a laboratory” is verifying——

Spear or shield!

Writing here, do you feel that China’s major national defense technology progress has been leaked by this news?

It’s still my guess – this is not a leak, but a deliberate act.

Think about it, why should such a major national defense science and technology research progress have a laboratory unveiling ceremony? Leaders of relevant units also attended in public?

Don’t we know that there are hundreds of satellites staring at us in the sky?

Not only the unveiling ceremony should be held, but also the news should be released, which frankly revealed that an important laboratory of the aerospace science and industry group had the participation of “relevant superior leaders and leaders of joint formation units”.

This is the card!

A clear card publicly displayed to Lao Mei.

We are willing to disclose the above information to the outside world (unusual unveiling ceremony, aerospace science and industry group, joint establishment unit, higher-level leaders attending in person, special news reports). We believe that the United States can understand the meaning of this information by combining it with the intelligence in its hands——

Therefore, the report sent to the desk of old American bigwigs is basically like this: a Chinese black technology theory has been studied and is currently in the laboratory stage. It is expected that perfect experimental data will be obtained in XX time cycle, and the troops can be formed and equipped in XX time cycle. This black Technology weapon will pose a serious threat to old American XX and bring XX changes.

At the end of the report, there is another item: the above information was voluntarily released by China.

Then, why do I personally prefer that this black technology is a “shield”?

This should be analyzed in combination with a series of recent events.

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Competition between spear and shield

On June 17, China’s third aircraft carrier was officially launched, and the aircraft carrier was named “Fujian ship”. This is a day recorded in history, which immediately triggered heated debate in the public opinion field at home and abroad.

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Seeing that our aircraft carrier Fujian has become a global social media celebrity, the United States is not happy, so only two days later, the United States began to make small moves.

On the morning of the 19th local time, the US Navy’s “Ohio” class strategic nuclear submarine launched four Trident II D5 intercontinental ballistic missiles in the waters west of California. After a long flight, the missile accurately hit the target set near the waters of Guam.

Also in the late night of the 19th, China’s Ministry of Defense announced that China had conducted a test of land-based midcourse anti missile interception technology in its territory, and the test results were in line with expectations.

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(source: Ministry of Defense)

Only two days after the launch of the aircraft carrier Fujian, China and the United States have a bright “spear” and a bright “shield”, both of which are strategic national weapons, and the meaning of tit for tat is very obvious.

At the military level, the game of great powers is mainly a contest between spear and shield. At present, only three countries in the world are qualified to participate in this level of game, China, the United States and Russia, and the rest are scum.

The spear is a variety of missiles, and the shield is a missile defense system.

In the past, the United States and the Soviet Union competed for hegemony. At the beginning, the two sides competed for spears, mainly for the number and equivalent of nuclear warheads carried by missiles. Therefore, both sides desperately engaged in a nuclear arms race. In the end, the nuclear warheads owned by one side were enough to destroy the earth several times – it was meaningless to continue to pile up at this level. In the late stage of the U.S. – Soviet hegemony, both sides began to compete for shields, that is, they invested heavily in building a missile defense system.

It was against this background that the United States launched a star wars plan, that is, to build a shield against Soviet nuclear missiles at the space level, making it meaningless for the Soviet Union to have an unprecedented number of nuclear bombs.

The Star Wars plan publicly released by the United States scared the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was forced to invest heavily in the space defense system. Finally, because of excessive military spending, the economy collapsed and the United States won the victory of the cold war.

So what is the current situation of the game between Chinese and American spears and shields?

At the spear level, China and the United States are at the same level, and China has a slight advantage. The main reason is that our hypersonic missiles can get out of the coquettish Qian Xuesen trajectory and have the ability to easily tear a gap from the old American anti missile system. This is our advantage. The old United States has not developed hypersonic missiles yet, but it is only a matter of time for the old United States to develop hypersonic missiles.

In addition, China currently has a hypersonic missile (Dongfeng 17) with a range of only 1800-2500 kilometers. Although it poses a serious threat to the military bases and garrisons of the first and second island chains of the United States, it cannot directly threaten the United States mainland.

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At the level of shield, Laos and the United States have greater advantages. There are two main reasons. One is that the United States and Laos started the missile defense system decades earlier than us, and they have invested a lot over the years. These gaps will not be able to be filled in a moment and a half; The other is that the United States and Laos have military bases all over the world and can establish a trinity missile defense system on a global scale. This kind of global hegemony advantage in geopolitical territory is difficult for us to have. China can only deploy the missile defense system within its national territory.

Press: the United States can deploy the THAAD system in South Korea to monitor most parts of northern China, which is difficult for us to follow. It is hard to imagine that we can deploy the same anti missile monitoring system in Cuba.

In short, this is the case between China and the United States. China has certain advantages in the spear, but because of the range, our hypersonic missiles cannot pose a direct threat to Laos and the United States. However, Laos and the United States have great advantages in the shield.

In other words, if a nuclear war breaks out between China and the United States, both sides will use intercontinental missiles to shoot at each other’s mainland. Because the American shield is more powerful, in the view of the United States, China will suffer far more losses than the United States – China may only have a few intercontinental missiles that break through the U.S. anti missile system and hit the U.S. mainland, while the United States has a large number of intercontinental missiles that can break through the Chinese anti missile system and hit the Chinese mainland.

Because China’s dominant spear cannot directly threaten the United States, and the United States has a huge advantage in the shield, there are many hawks in the US military who want to fight a war with China.

On February 2, 2021, according to the Washington Post, Admiral Charles Richard, the commander of the U.S. strategic command, the supreme general in charge of the strategic nuclear forces of the U.S. military, publicly declared that it was not impossible for the United States to break out a nuclear war with China and Russia.

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(source: People’s information)

Although these hawkish generals cannot enter the decision-making level of Laos and the United States, we should also remain highly vigilant.

In this context, it is easy to see the meaning of the actions of China and the United States on June 19——

The United States launched four Trident II D5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with a strong taste of provocation and demonstration. What is the launching of your aircraft carrier? Your aircraft carrier, including the mainland, is within the precision strike range of my intercontinental missiles every minute. Although your hypersonic missiles are very strong, as long as my aircraft carrier retreats beyond the range of your hypersonic missiles (Dongfeng 17), because my shield is very powerful, your other missiles can’t threaten me at all!

And the Chinese side immediately implemented the test of land-based midcourse anti missile interception technology. The taste of tit for tat is also very strong – our shield protection ability is also constantly improving!

However, compared with the provocative demonstrations of the United States, I always feel that the momentum is weaker.

Therefore, this time, aerospace science and industry launched a grand unveiling ceremony of “a laboratory”.

This “certain laboratory” can only verify two directions, one is a sharper spear, or a stronger shield.

Sharper spears can be basically ruled out, because we have developed hypersonic missiles that can penetrate the U.S. antimissile system, but the current range is limited, and improving the range in the future is only a technical breakthrough, which should not involve the need to establish a new theory to restart the stove.

On the contrary, a stronger shield is more likely.

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Upgrade to solve problems

At present, the anti missile systems of China, the United States and Russia are basically still in the “bullet to bullet” stage – that is, the stage of intercepting missiles with missiles. This method is not only very clumsy, but also relatively inefficient, but also has a fatal drawback – the old missiles cannot defend against the endless stream of new missiles. For example, the hypersonic Dongfeng 17 developed by China makes the anti missile system of the United States unable to defend itself, which is a typical case.

What should I do?

Einstein famously said that solutions to major problems cannot be found in this dimension.

We must jump out of the dead end of missile defense and use brand-new weapons to restrain missiles.

This new weapon is laser weapon.

Compared with traditional missiles, laser weapons have several incomparable advantages. First, the speed is fast, reaching the speed of light. No missile can reach this speed, that is, the speed of laser is faster than any missile; The second is that the interception cost is low. The cost of a missile is often several million dollars. If we want to intercept enemy missiles on a large scale, the cost is basically the same as that of the enemy, which is economically uneconomical, and the cost of laser beam is basically negligible; Third, convenient maintenance.

However, the laser weapons manufactured at the current technical level also have obvious shortcomings. One is that the range is too short, generally only a few kilometers or dozens of kilometers, and the actual combat value is very low; Second, it is easily disturbed by climate.

Therefore, if there is a new theoretical breakthrough, so that a laser weapon can reach a range of hundreds of thousands of kilometers, and can eliminate the interference of all kinds of bad weather, its effect will be subversive. The anti missile system built with such a laser weapon will be an extremely strong shield.

So why do I specifically mention the field of laser weapons?

Because it is one of the few fields in which China leads the world and surpasses the United States. If there is a disruptive breakthrough in the guiding theory of laser weapons, then China is the most likely one.

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Laser weapons displayed at Zhuhai Air Show (source: surging News)

More importantly, China has made efforts in the research of shield, and the international community’s perception is much better than that of spear. After all, everyone knows the famous saying – kill your heart with a sharp weapon.

Of course, the above is also my guess. Everyone will treat me as watering and boasting nonsense.

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have a tacit understanding

Back to the previous news topic, if this news is intentional, what meaning does it release to Americans?

I understand that this is the most powerful response to the provocative demonstration of the US launch of intercontinental missiles!

What are you? In a few years, not only my spear is sharper than you, but also my shield is stronger than you!

If, I mean, if our “certain laboratory” of Aerospace Science and industry is to experiment the theoretical model data of this laser weapon, what will be the results if it is successful and equipped with anti missile forces in the future?

First of all, the hawkish generals who clamored for war in the United States will completely cease, and the possibility of war between China and the United States is infinitely close to zero, which maintains world peace.

Secondly, in the geopolitical game, China will have the advantage – my spear is sharper than you, and my shield is stronger than you, so some things should not be yours, but mine.

The world follows a basic rule. As long as you own something and others see (or believe) that you own it, you don’t need to use it at all, and you can get huge additional benefits.

Have you seen the movie “millions of pounds”?

The protagonist was a poor man living on the street at the beginning, but when he got a million pound note, the situation instantly changed. All those who saw him have a million pound note flattered him. He didn’t use the note from beginning to end, but finally he got wealth and beauty back.

The same is true of the international community.

After we have two bombs and one satellite, the permanent membership of the United Nations will be restored. Before that, no country that has established diplomatic relations with China has voted for China to restore the permanent membership of the United Nations!

Similarly, in the past, disputes between the South China Sea and surrounding countries continued, but after the j-20 and aircraft carrier were commissioned, the surrounding areas of the South China Sea became calm, allowing the United States to jump up and down and desperately arch fire, and the surrounding countries in the South China Sea remained unmoved.

Therefore, if China achieves subversive results in the field of “shield”, it will be easy for us to rely on the sharp weapon of this great power to obtain more benefits in the future geopolitical game.

The game of great powers is a war without smoke of gunpowder. Everyone is a clear card. Everyone has made a detailed military chess deduction of these clear cards. With the help of supercomputer, the final outcome is also a clear card.

In this case, it is unwise to fight a real battle, because the loser will not only lose the benefits that should have been lost, but also lose face in front of the world, so it is a wise choice to let the benefits that should be conceded out – in a sense, it is also an unspoken rule of the game of great powers.

There is an implicit logic to the so-called big country game without breaking it – everyone has got the benefits that match their own strength, so there is no need for everyone to lift the table.

The above is my deep interpretation of the plain news of Aerospace Science and industry.

This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

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