We already have C919, why buy a lot of Airbus A320?

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Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (id:hqsycn)

On July 1, a news caught the world’s attention. China’s three major airlines announced that they had ordered a total of 292 a320neo aircrafts from Airbus, with a total amount of more than US $37 billion. It is said to be one of the largest orders in the history of Airbus.

In this regard, Airbus was delighted and Boeing was disappointed, while many Chinese expressed “doubts”. We

With C919, why spend so much money on Airbus? How good it is to use this money to buy C919 and promote the development of Chinese airliners!

This is actually a misunderstanding. After reading the author’s commentary, you will understand.

With C919, China has to buy Airbus. The reasons are as follows:

1. C919 needs further maturation

For various reasons, C919 is still in the stage of flight test and certification. If everything goes well, it should be able to obtain domestic airworthiness license this year and start commercial operation next year.

No matter how you train a fighter, it’s far better to fight a few games in actual combat. Many problems are found immediately, and then go back to revise and improve. Like C919, even if mass production and commercial operation are started, the new aircraft will have various problems to be improved at the beginning, and will not be mass produced.

2. C919 production capacity is not available for a time

After the new aircraft comes out, the initial production capacity will not be too high. It will take some time to expand the production line and improve the production capacity. Taking ARJ21 as an example, it began commercial operation in 2016, with only one delivered that year and only 22 delivered by 2021. According to the prediction of aviation experts, the annual production capacity of C919 will reach 150, probably by 2030.

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? C919 video screenshot

According to the above two points, you can see that the initial output of C919 will not be too much, but some aircraft of domestic airlines are waiting to be replaced, so you can’t wait.

Take China Eastern Airlines as an example. At present, there are 40 aircraft with an age of more than 15 years. By 2027, there will be more than 100 aircraft. If other airlines are added, there will be more, and they all need to be replaced; In addition, according to Boeing’s prediction last year, China needs 8700 new aircraft in the next 20 years, with an average of 435 aircraft per year

? The demand for hundreds of aircraft is so frequent that even if it is handed over to C919, its current output cannot keep up.

Therefore, it is normal to buy Airbus.

3. Geographical factors

There are no permanent friends between countries, only eternal interests.

Due to the huge interests between China and Europe, although the United States has been encouraging the EU to confront China over the years, the attitude of France, Germany and other countries towards China has always been acceptable. Even Anna Lena bierberg, who is famous for her hard work against China, can still do well after taking office as foreign minister of Germany. The key reason is that Europe can’t give up the huge Chinese market and reap great profits from the Chinese market.

When China and Europe can achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, and the EU can continue to benefit from the Chinese market, it will be more cautious in dealing with China’s problems, so that Europe will not excessively follow the United States to stand on the opposite side of China, which is conducive to the differentiation of the West.

4. Spend more dollars

China’s huge foreign trade will earn a lot of foreign exchange. However, there are many foreign restrictions. We are not allowed to buy either. All we can buy are energy and grain, but the demand for them is limited. Therefore, many times, our foreign exchange is used to buy US Treasury bonds.

However, during the Russia Ukraine war, we also saw how unreliable the credibility of the United States was, and directly frozen Russia’s foreign exchange of $300billion.

Therefore, when we have enough dollars in hand, it is also a good idea to spend dollars on what we can buy.

? Airbus A320 video screenshot

In terms of this large order for Airbus, China and Europe are win-win. The only injury is the United States. The United States has shown a strong sour taste, and Boeing is bluntly “disappointed”.

Finally, let’s talk about two other bad things about the United States.

One is that without China, the world’s largest market, the US technology and manufacturing industry will further decline.

The reason is that the more high-tech, the greater the need for a large market, and further research and development through market returns, so as to form a “positive iteration”, otherwise it is easy to lose in high-intensity competition. For example, Airbus has obtained a large order from China, and its rich profits can support it to have enough money for further research and development, and further occupy the market with good products.

However, the United States is engaged in decoupling from China and the new cold war, and it is the United States itself that will eventually be injured. In fact, as early as 2017, when trump visited China, the two sides signed an agreement to purchase 300 Boeing aircraft. However, up to now, Airbus has won large orders, while the U.S. order has not yet landed.

The second is that the United States will go further into trouble

High technology is the “signature dish” of the United States. However, in the past five years, global technology has stopped to a certain extent. Whether it is mobile Internet or mobile phone, it has basically peaked. New technologies such as the Internet of things and AI have not yet produced real economic effects. Moreover, even if they eventually produce economic effects, they are no longer dominated by the United States, but shared by China, Japan, Europe and other countries.

Science and technology are the primary productive forces and the key means to improve the economy. At present, the stagnation of science and technology has made it impossible to improve the productivity, and the share of the United States has been continuously occupied by China, Japan, Germany and other countries. In addition, the cake sharing of Science and technology in the future determines that the United States itself has been difficult to excel as in the past.

In addition, the United States gambled on the lives of millions of people, but the economy shrank by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year. It also faces many risks, such as high inflation, high debt, high foam, stagflation, economic recession and so on.

Under the above-mentioned situations, the United States does not want to win-win to tide over the difficulties and mutual benefit to alleviate its own crisis. It is still engaged in such deadly means as decoupling and the new cold war, and sooner or later it will kill itself.

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