We are involved in the first anniversary of the Russian-Uzbekistan war!

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Source: Xinchaochensi

Author: Liu Menglong

Unconsciously, from February 24, 2022 to now, the Russian-Uzbekistan War has been one year old. This war is not like the war in the 21st century, but more like the war in the early 20th century. It is not the kind of fierce and short high-tech duel that we once imagined belongs to the new century. On the contrary, it has completely returned to the most traditional war of attrition. The so-called conspiracies and tricks went bankrupt without sufficient strength.

When the human, material, financial, technical, organizational, and determination of both sides are unable to be overwhelming, they reveal their true colors and turn into a fight in the mud. It depends on who can’t hold on first, and take a last breath. It’s a bit like a miniature of our era.

Get involved

Although this war is thousands of miles away, we are not out of it. On the contrary, we have been in it since the war began. The most direct and clear impact we can feel is the cognitive war between the two sides. In this war, the most unexpected and powerful is no longer the American rocket of the Ukrainian army, nor the Russian ballistic missile, but the extensive information pollution. From the crazy opening race of the Russians to the present, the battlefields of the Russian-Uzbekistan war cognitive war are still spread all over the world, and different cognitive groups have formed in our country about the current situation, nature and future of the war.

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China is far from the main battlefield of cognitive warfare. It is conceivable that in Europe and the United States, as the main battlefield, the intensity and power of this cognitive warfare. From another point of view, through our preliminary experience of the cognitive war of the Russian-Uzbekistan war, it is not difficult to find how powerless ordinary people are in the face of the pollution of organized information in the so-called era of information development. In fact, up to now, the development of the Russian-Uzbekistan war depends entirely on both sides. For ordinary people, there is only hearsay. As for the party to win the trust, it depends entirely on their subjective attitude.

Let’s think about it, if the high-intensity cognitive warfare is directly applied to us. Once faced with severe environment and huge challenges, it is time for us to work together to overcome difficulties. There is no need for a real battle. With our domestic public opinion environment and internal and external attacks, ordinary people will be confused about the development of the situation and the future direction, even led by the wrong information.

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It is ridiculous that because we are in an era of global corruption, the military and technological power of traditional big countries cannot reach the thunderous and all-powerful imagination we have been portrayed in our minds by long-term propaganda. That’s why they need to develop with all their strength to make their bad performance beautiful and make people believe that the big countries still have powerful public opinion control technology.

The continuous improvement of the level of contemporary cognitive warfare has great value both internally and externally in this increasingly intensified society. In the end, for those big countries that have full access to information channels, no matter what they do or how bad they do, they can get the general support at home and abroad. Once they master the public opinion, they can master everything and ignore the real facts. Until the moment of complete bankruptcy, the world is still at peace or invincible.

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Another interesting part of this war is where we are involved. It is the impact of the war on global trade. Undoubtedly, at the beginning of the war, Russia and Ukraine, two resource-rich countries, caused great turbulence in the world market, which fully demonstrated how vulnerable the global trade, which operated in the lowest margin after a long period of peace, was to the conflict of major powers.

But when the war lasts, one year later, we will find that things become very different. In addition to the pressure from the United States, the European countries that were actually forcibly sacrificed gradually found suitable alternative channels for various resources and trade. What about this substitution? For example, the oil exported by Russia has decreased, but the oil products processed by India have increased. No one will ask where India’s oil comes from.

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In fact, the conflict between big countries is not as terrible as we think. War can be war, and business is still business. At present, the determination shown by the Western powers is not as great as they have sworn in. Of course, this is a good thing for us. At the very least, we don’t like the soaring oil price. From another point of view, this indirect acquiescence also shows that the tacit understanding of the world’s great powers still exists.

In fact, Russia is still fighting a limited war. The Russian people’s cards and determination have not been determined in the end, and the assistance of the West is far from as sincere as they promised. From the beginning of the war, all parties stood idly by, and now the bargaining is full of speculation about the dishes.

But how long will this tacit understanding last with the long-term development of the Russian-Uzbekistan war? Or worse, under this tacit understanding, will other major powers use force more recklessly? The fight between the two sides in the Russian-Uzbekistan war may make other big countries have the illusion that they will never be like this, while their opponents are just like this. The danger of this war is that it has made a bad start.

Break the illusion

In the past, those countries and regions that we thought were strong or developed ended up like this. Undoubtedly, breaking the illusion is another outstanding feeling that this war has given us. Just like the war started not long ago, the Russian bravado, the strong outside and the weak inside, and the unexpected tenacity of the Ukrainian people.

The Russians’ great adventure at the beginning was of course impressive, and the final failure was quite embarrassing. Regardless of the success or failure of this war, this raid should leave a strong mark in history in the future.

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I don’t think it is necessary to laugh at the Russians. Isn’t the start of the Russian war in line with the imagination of some people? It is not acceptable for the people in the devastated bandit areas to meet the Wang division and guide military adventures with wishful political views. War is a choice related to the fate of a country and a nation. We should start carefully and end well.

Now we can see that 30 years is enough for the Ukrainian people to form a strong nationalistic atmosphere, so that they can also endure the pressure of national extinction in such a rotten mud pond. In some areas where the opposition has been separated for a long time, once faced with a decision that is crucial to the fate of the whole nation, it should be more prudent, more decisive, and more comprehensive preparations should be made, instead of relying on any politically correct wishful thinking.

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Of course, from another perspective, we should also recognize that the mechanism of global checks and balances of major powers, including the United Nations, has gradually failed. The Russians did not play well, but the result was the same. The main factor restricting the Russians was not the interference of western groups, but the weakness of Russia’s own national strength and system. At least for now, the Russians are still the relatively dominant side in the war of attrition. It depends on the most practical exchange ratio of human life.

Human life is the cheapest in such a bad war, but relatively speaking, it takes at least ten years for a person to grow up to fight, and it is more valuable than any equipment. Rather than giving Ukraine some unsystematic castration equipment and a small amount of volunteer soldiers, Europeans should help Ukraine catch more millions of young men, rather than plan to occupy these cheap human resources.

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In this war, we have shown the weakness of the old system, and there will be more countries with ideas. The peace of the past, which is superior to others, is going to collapse. This is a process of both sides, and the pressure Russia can bear is no more than that. In order to maintain the situation outside Russia, other hot spots will not get a breather as some people think. On the contrary, Americans are now increasingly oppressing Europe, hoping that Europe can shed more blood and make greater sacrifices on the Ukrainian issue.

The ultimate goal of the United States is, of course, to bear the pressure of one strategic direction for the United States, and the power released from it can only be turned in another direction. Even, we can predict that with too many chips pressed in the Asia-Pacific region, there may eventually be the danger of fire and even out of control.

Conflicts and wars are always unexpected. It is absurd and harmful to think that the fantasy is fully prepared, armed to the teeth, and then go to the battlefield on a sunny day and triumph with flowers on the next weekend. It is amazing that, a hundred years ago, this was exactly the common idea of people before the First World War. We can’t wait to go to hell together. Just like before the Russian-Uzbekistan war began, it is hard to imagine that the major power conflict developed into a long and bloody long-term war. In our era, people are mentally prepared for conflict, but for war, especially the war that has been out of control for a long time, everyone, whether on both sides of the Pacific, is actually unprepared.

The Russian-Uzbekistan war broke an important illusion that the powder can be detonated. And the most frightening thing is that this powder barrel is not necessarily detonated under control according to the intentions of some big countries, but it is likely to explode by itself without control. The more populism develops, the more intensified the contradictions between the big powers, and the greater the risk of runaway in such hot spots. Our prosperity and peace in the past few decades is to sing and dance beside a pile of explosive buckets and believe that they will never explode. What is more frightening is that some big countries are still piling up explosive buckets crazily when facing the danger of recession, trying to share the pressure with poison pill tactics.

With the deterioration of the global economy and political environment, this kind of uncertainty will become a trend. Like the gunfire in Sarajevo, the conflict in the hot spots is likely to break through the subjective intentions of the major powers and involve everyone. What is the essence of war? The essence of war is to make every effort, not to retreat completely. It is me who broke an arm to exchange half of your life. The conflicts on the European continent today are just a string of foam rising before the boiling pot.

The wheel of our time

After a hundred years, have we come back to some kind of deja vu dilemma? Even compared with the beginning of the last century, we seem to be less energetic and have no prospects. It is indeed a reflection of our times to be afraid of the two ends of the stick.

Great powers are preparing for conflict and eager for change, but no one dares to face the collapse of the world. Our peace today is more and more rooted in the lack of preparation for war, rather than the solution to the war itself.

Because the Russian-Uzbekistan war has caused such a tragic situation, we should not despise the war. We should not have the idea that we are much better than them. Since ancient times, the Russian-Uzbekistan war has shown many forms of war and signs of technological breakthroughs. The fantasy of high-tech knights dueling in the new era should be over. The overall war based on the country and nation is not outdated.

The Russian adventure is of course reckless, but once forced to the corner, the conflict is often unexpected. Even if the Russian-Uzbekistan war finally broke out, I think the long-term division of the Slavs is already a fact. Kiev used to be the mother of the Slavic city and eventually became the largest fortress against Russia, which is a national tragedy. Throughout the course of the past 40 years, the Russians began to surrender, then unwilling, and finally took risks. Obviously, they were pressed step by step, but also suffered from bad reputation. How profound the lessons were.

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It is one thing to hide one’s strength and hide one’s hide, but it is another to compromise and surrender. The best way to avoid entering the corner is, of course, to face up to the risks faced by this era and make as many preparations as possible. We should clearly draw our bottom line, stick to it and dare to defend it, rather than be flexible. An overly flexible bottom line will only lead to the loss of trust within and outside the upper and lower levels, and the situation will eventually develop to an irreparable level in the process of external gain and internal confusion.

It is a common disease of many people in our age to refuse to prepare because of fear of conflict. The result may be to be forced into the corner like the Russians. The Russians once tried to retreat, but the result was that they would have to pay a huge price to move forward again, and could not even return to the starting point. Being too afraid of conflict will end in a war far beyond conflict. On the contrary, the courage to maintain the bottom line, even in the event of conflict, may be more helpful for both sides to correctly understand each other.

Peace and development are of course a good thing, but we should also admit that these things need to be fought for and maintained with blood and courage, rather than falling from the sky. It is not necessary to be belligerent, but also to defend peace. On the contrary, it is a crime against the country and the nation that the slogan is so shocking that we have to take risks when things are imminent.

Human beings are not good at learning from experience, so we often laugh at ourselves. The only lesson we learn from history is that human beings will not learn from it. However, the world of mankind is progressing after all. Every lesson that is tragic enough will more or less bring about changes in the world. Just as World War I swept down the crown and established the red regime, World War II established the coordination mechanism of major powers and brought about long-term peace.

Those problems accumulated in the long history, such as volcanic eruptions, may eventually release and destroy many things in the most violent way, but the volcanic embers will breed fertile land. When the wheel of history really rolls around, fear is useless. We can only pack up and prepare for possible success and failure.

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