Source: dashuxiangzhang (ID: dashuxiangzhang)
China’s trade surplus in July set a new record.
Why do I say again? Since the outbreak, China’s export data has been too bright: it has always maintained a high surplus and maintained a high growth rate. Apart from the Shanghai epidemic, the central value of China’s export growth is close to 20%.
Year on year growth of China’s total export value in the past year
Compared with other industrial countries, our achievements are even more outstanding:
In the first half of 2022, Germany’s trade surplus was 34.3 billion euros, a decrease of 62.2 billion euros over the same period last year; In May this year, Germany also experienced its first trade deficit since 1991, the first time in 30 years.
France’s trade deficit in June reached 13.3 billion euros, a record high in a single month; In the past 12 months, the accumulated trade deficit reached 113.9 billion euros, which also set a new record.
This is the performance of European manufacturing powers. What about our neighbors, Japan and South Korea?
According to the data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance in August, Japan has had a trade deficit for 12 consecutive months. In July, the trade deficit reached 1.44 trillion yen, which also set a record high for the same period in history.
South Korea’s trade with China has been in deficit for three consecutive months, and it is likely that it will be in deficit for four consecutive months for the first time in 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, which will create a new record; At the same time, South Korea’s trade deficit so far this year has also reached $25.4 billion.
As for Vietnam, which has been touted most fiercely on the Internet a while ago, its trade surplus in the first seven months was only US $764 million, while China’s trade surplus in July alone was US $101.26 billion, which is not enough.
It can be said that all the major industrial countries in the world have recorded continuous deficits, while we are constantly breaking the record of surpluses.
Industrial countries other than China are generally weak. In contrast, commodity exporting countries such as Russia, Brazil and Australia are making a lot of money in exports.
If the world’s demand is regarded as a cake, other people’s deficits and our surpluses actually mean that China’s industrial manufactured products are quite competitive and eating more and more demand shares;
However, the supply of other countries cannot keep up with their demand, so it is not too much to say that made in China is a kind of just demand.
There are both factors of epidemic control and stable energy supply.
Japan has both runaway epidemic and energy crisis
Of course, it’s easy to get carried away just looking at the total number, but actually looking at the export structure will make people happier.
In your past impression, we seemed to produce shirts, socks, bags and toys, but in fact, we have come a long way on the road of industrial upgrading.
What are the three categories of products with the strongest export momentum in China in July this year? It is automobile, steel products and textile related products.
Among them, according to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, 54000 new energy vehicles were exported in July, with a month on month increase of 89.9% and a year-on-year increase of 37.6%; The annual export of various types of vehicles is expected to exceed 2.4 million, and it is also very likely that the annual export of vehicles will exceed that of Germany.
I want to say here that no matter whether it is a Chinese brand or not, at least we have left the industrial chain and production capacity in China.
Automobiles are not processed with supplied materials, and assembly is all that is needed. The length of the automobile industry chain and the complexity of the supply chain are far from being comparable to that of clothing. The automobile exporting countries are at least better than the clothing exporting countries.
In addition, our export structure has also changed according to different export targets.
Among the exports to emerging market economies, we mainly sell mechanical and electrical products, which have the fastest growth. Although it is difficult to enter the local market of old industrial countries, industrial upgrading also needs to step by step. If we can stand firm in emerging markets, at least our products are cost-effective.
In contrast, the products we sell to developed countries are mainly labor-intensive products. On the one hand, Europe and the United States are suffering from inflation, and indeed need cheaper goods to reduce the living cost of residents. On the other hand, due to sanctions, consumption concepts and other factors, we still have a long way to go in upgrading.
At this point, of course, I can shout “China has won”, but if this is the case, it has also betrayed the trust of readers.
China’s trade surplus has risen against the trend. On the whole, it is a good thing, but it is not the whole picture, let alone the “big win and special win”.
Let’s go deeper and ask more questions, such as:
As an export-oriented economy, we naturally need to maintain a surplus. But is this deficit of industrial countries in the world only healthy when we have a large surplus? Or is it sustainable?
In the short term, the recent deficit of many industrial countries is due to the rising prices of energy and bulk commodities caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the import costs have risen sharply compared with the usual ones, thus bringing about the deterioration of the terms of trade.
This factor has nothing to do with us.
Related to us, if more and more industrial chains and production capacity are concentrated in our country, this is not necessarily a good thing.
The reason is very simple. One cannot eat alone.
Some people on the Internet say that we are the crushers of developed countries. Through competition, we are gradually nibbling at high value-added industries.
Should we enter high value-added industries? Yes, the Chinese also have the right to live a good life.
However, we can not swallow all industries and shares, which will make other countries unable to live a good life.
Most intuitively, these countries are obviously defeated in the competition, but politicians who are good at playing with populism will incite Anti China sentiments: “it is made in China that robbed our workers of their jobs”, so as to set up external enemies to win votes.
This is quite unfavorable for us to further develop the market.
Moreover, the United States is currently building an anti China encirclement around the world. If we cut off the way for other countries to survive, we will be putting one country after another on the opposite side of us. By then, the Anti China encirclement circle will be truly completed.
What is more important is that the small amount of money earned by “eating alone” with a trade surplus will affect our ability to earn real big money.
What is real big money? That is, RMB internationalization.
When our size and manufacturing level come to this position, it is not enough for us to earn trade money. What’s more, what we earn is not the real gold and silver in the early era of globalization, but the sovereign credit currency of other countries, or paper for short.
This pile of paper is in hand. First, the value of wealth is not stable, and it is entirely determined by the policies of other countries. When interest rates are raised or lowered, the wealth of the Chinese people will be wiped out;
Second, with money, you can’t buy and sell freely. For example, if you want to buy technology, people won’t sell it at any cost; Don’t buy technology, buy high-tech equipment, and don’t sell it.
If we want to take good care of our wealth in international trade, we even want our paper to be printed
Wealth, we must promote the internationalization of RMB.
Therefore, we should share the profits.
On the one hand, we should be more open, open up markets, increase imports, and let other countries earn RMB.
On the other hand, we should do a good job in the integration of the industrial chain, so as to achieve mutual benefit.
Only when the market and industrial chain are integrated with China, and under the Chinese led system, everyone performs their own duties, buying and selling, and coming and going, can the only way for RMB to become an international hard currency and replace the US dollar.
Um, attention, this is under the Chinese dominated system. As the world’s largest industrial country and soon the world’s largest economic country, we have the strength to become the leader. Until then,
We’ve made real big money.
We’re not the only ones who see this as a big money.
In the past, the United States dominated the “petrodollar” and laid the foundation for the dollar to exchange paper for wealth. With the spread of new energy and the iteration of technology, the United States has found a new anchor and started the idea of “chip dollar”.
The idea of forming the so-called “chip4 alliance” with South Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan proposed by the United States will soon be implemented. The preparatory meeting of the US Japan ROK Taiwan chip4 alliance at the end of this month can almost be confirmed.
We adhere to a mutually beneficial and win-win strategy of opening up to the outside world. We will not hold a gun against other people’s heads and engage in any “alliance”.
Therefore, we not only need to export products and earn a little surplus, but also need to export production capacity, integrate the supply chain, eat with food and earn with money. Only in this way can we get out of the encirclement, make more friends and fewer enemies, and lay a good foundation for the internationalization of RMB.
It is a good thing to have a favorable balance, which is a great relief for the gloomy economic situation;
However, we should take a long-term view. In addition to the current small money, there are still big money in the new order waiting for us to establish and realize.