Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
01 West poison deformation
Biden’s trip to Europe this time is mainly the G7 summit in Bavaria and the NATO summit in Madrid.
According to the article “this round of G7, China and Russia” the day before yesterday, the G7 summit is aimed at China and Russia. The G7 is theoretically an economic summit, and the west is murderous. The NATO summit is a military summit, and it is even worse for those who come here.
But in the NATO summit, Biden encountered a difficult problem, that is, he must deal with Turkey, which claims to be the second military power of NATO.
In today’s global village, Turkey can get into the position of “Western poison” mainly because of the maneuvering of smart Erdogan.
Objectively speaking, the relationship between Biden and Erdogan is not good. Behind the failed military coup that Erdogan suffered in 2016 is the shadow of the United States. Biden happened to be the vice president at that time. He was responsible for the color revolution (against Ukraine). But this time, Biden has to deal with Erdogan.
To support Ukraine, NATO must first attack Russia politically.
The main reason for Russia’s attack on Ukraine is that Ukraine’s joining NATO threatens its own security.
Then Finland and Sweden next to Russia directly applied to join NATO. Finland, in particular, has more than 1000 kilometers of border with Russia; If we join NATO, the strategic threat to Russia will not be weaker than that to Ukraine.
If Russia also conducts “special military operations” against Finland and Sweden, it will open up a second battlefield. If Russia does not ask, it shows that “fear of threat” is an excuse.
When Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO, they were strongly blocked by Turkey. Because according to the rules of the game, Finland and Sweden need the approval of all Member States to join NATO. Turkey is also a member of NATO. It jumped out and acted very hard.
Biden’s main purpose of attending the NATO summit this time is to let Erdogan not block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. If Erdogan can not make up his mind, it means that there is a problem within NATO.
So on June 28, the last moment before the opening of the NATO summit, Sweden, Finland and Turkey announced that they had reached a tripartite agreement, and Turkey agreed to support Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
Erdogan’s presidential office issued a statement, Turkey
“
Got what you wanted
”?
Biden soon congratulated on Twitter: “congratulating Finland, Sweden and Turkey on signing the trilateral Memorandum – this is a key step for NATO to invite Finland and Sweden, which will strengthen our alliance and enhance our collective security – is also a good way to start the summit.”
This means that Turkey, which had previously strongly blocked Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, is soft again.
02 objectives of Turkey
What did Turkey get?
According to the document content published on the NATO website:
As future NATO allies, Sweden and Finland will fully support Turkey in its fight against terrorism and unequivocally condemn all terrorist organizations’ attacks against Turkey in the strongest terms. The two countries will recognize the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a prohibited terrorist organization, promise to prevent and investigate any fund-raising and recruitment activities of the PKK and related organizations and individuals, and will not support
“
Curian movement
”
And the Kurdish Democratic Alliance Party and its affiliated armed groups
“
People’s protection force
”
?
The three countries decided to establish a unified dialogue and cooperation mechanism among governments at all levels (including law enforcement agencies and intelligence agencies) to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation. Sweden and Finland will promptly consider and handle requests for expulsion or extradition of terrorist suspects on the basis of information, evidence and intelligence provided by Turkey. This permanent joint mechanism will be open to the participation of other countries.
Key points conveyed by the content: Sweden and Finland support Turkey’s anti-terrorism struggle, so they do not hesitate to list the long supported Kurdish workers’ Party (PKK) as a terrorist organization.
In short, Sweden and Finland no longer support the Kurds.
All friends who know the history of the Middle East know that the Kurds are one of the saddest nations in the Middle East. There have been many tragic nations in the Middle East. For example, Jews and Armenians have suffered a lot, but at last they have established their own countries.
The Kurds have suffered no less than any other ethnic group, but they have never established their own country.
Today’s Kurds are mainly distributed in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. If the Kurds establish a state, it is bound to trigger a new round of chaos in the Middle East.
In other words, if any external force wants to disrupt the Middle East, it only needs to strongly support the Kurds to establish a state. In a sense, the Kurds are a card for the West (especially the United States) to deter the Middle East.
In order to contain Turkey, western countries will secretly support the Kurds. Most European countries and Turkey are both NATO members, and they are embarrassed to publicly support the Kurds to make trouble for Turkey. Sweden and Finland are EU members but not NATO members, so they openly support the PKK.
Now Sweden and Finland give up supporting the PKK in order to join NATO, which is equivalent to that the West has temporarily sacrificed the interests of the Kurds in order to concentrate its efforts (to attract Sweden and Finland into NATO) against Russia.
Of course, Biden is the driving force behind this.
03 pushing Biden
According to CNN, Biden set up a Bureau six months ago to allow Ruifen and China to join NATO.
Due to Turkey’s tough attitude, many Western politicians believe that Finland and Sweden can not join NATO at the Madrid summit. However, Biden made Erdogan change his mind through a series of operations.
Biden’s call to Erdogan on the 28th was the key.
As mentioned earlier, Erdogan has no good feelings for Biden. So what did Biden offer? The answer is hard and soft.
With a hard hand, Biden should show Erdogan the united front of the West against Russia.
Although Erdogan was shrewd and strong, he did not dare to turn against the West. Moreover, Russia and Turkey are also feuds. There is no need to fight for Russia and the West. The simplest example is that after the first World War, the Western powers wanted to carve up Turkey. At the critical moment, the newly born Soviet Union helped Kemal gain a firm foothold, but Turkey still sat on the West (after all, the old feud between Turkey and Russia is too deep).
A soft hand is throwing chips.
According to news reports, Biden also threw “bait”: if an agreement can be reached before the NATO summit, it will create conditions for the two to hold formal bilateral talks in Spain.
The so-called Spain’s bilateral talks are probably about the US lifting part of its arms embargo on Turkey. It is also a member of NATO. The arms embargo imposed by NATO on Turkey shows the delicate relationship between the two sides.
But the arms embargo alone is still too small.
A bigger chip should be Biden’s promise to push Turkey to join the EU and win the EU candidate status like Ukraine in the next few years. Of course, this is just a guess.
But there are hints of speculation. For example, Sweden and Finland have made a commitment to support Turkey and other non EU countries to participate in the EU security mechanism as widely as possible, and to establish a permanent joint mechanism with the participation of judicial, intelligence and security agencies to supervise the implementation of the above measures.
——This is a typical sign of support for Turkey’s entry into the EU.
Of course, Turkey’s entry into the EU is certainly a long process, and probably ranks behind Ukraine. However, the prospect of joining the EU as a big player is an irresistible temptation for Ukraine and Turkey.
04 game logic
Several points can be seen from this incident:
1. Turkey is actually a little unkind to Russia for playing like this. Among the friendly countries announced by Russia not long ago, Turkey stands out. When the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Turkey made a lot of money from Russia. Russia’s energy, steel and grain entered the west through Turkey, making Turkey earn a lot of price difference.
2. Although Turkey seems to be independent, if it has to choose the side, it will probably still be in the West.
3. In order to deal with Russia, the West has reached the point of gathering strength at all costs.
4. Once Finland and Sweden joined NATO, a new iron curtain of the West against Russia was formed.
5. Can these Western routines make Russia succumb? Obviously not, at least not in the Putin Era. The layout of the west is aimed at the post Putin Era.
It is obvious that the west is repeating the cold war idea, that is, through extreme pressure, it hopes that pro Western leaders will appear in the later stage. In the Soviet era, the West welcomed Gorbachev after a long-term layout.
For the layout of the west, China must have sufficient targeted measures to cope with the possible turbulence in Russia in the post Putin Era.
