Source: official account: Yan tajun
On May 31, Kyrgyz President zaparov told the media: “Kyrgyzstan is in great need of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway, and Russia is no longer opposed to the project.”.
Since the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, China has been under great pressure, but it is difficult to see too many dividends. At that time, I said that as long as we do not fall to any side, as long as Russia advances steadily on the battlefield, the dividends will gradually appear.
Look, speak of Cao Cao, Cao Cao arrives.
What is the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway? Why is it so important?
The initiative of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway began in 1997. At that time, China proposed to build a railway from Kashgar, Xinjiang, through the north of Kyrgyzstan (hereinafter referred to as Kyrgyzstan) to Andijan, Uzbekistan, of which only 80 kilometers are in Uzbekistan, and the rest are in China and Kyrgyzstan.
To put it simply, this is a railway connecting Xinjiang, China, and Northern Kyrgyzstan, connecting Uzbekistan in passing.
Railway is different from other transportation modes. Railway has a very obvious geopolitical role. Assuming that the economic strength of place a is strong and that of neighboring place B is weak, the best way for place a to control place B is to build a railway to connect the two places.
Because of the large carrying capacity of the railway, the advantages of the railway are much more obvious than those of the highway, whether carrying goods or passengers. Compared with air transport, the railway has a large carrying capacity and a much lower cost.
With the railway, the cost of economic communication between AB and ab can be greatly reduced. It is very convenient to sell goods or travel to each other, which is why high-speed rail is so important to promote economic development and personnel mobility.
Conversely, if land B does not want to be controlled by land a, the best way is to obstruct the construction of the railway. The attitude towards the railway is a direct reflection of the strength and weakness of a country.
When a country is booming, it is very keen to build railways, especially to build railways connecting its own country with neighboring countries. When a country is getting worse, it will try its best to prevent neighboring countries’ railways from connecting with its own country.
At the end of the Qing Dynasty, when China was weak, tsarist Russia continued to build railways in Northeast China, using the Middle East Railway as a branch line of tsarist Russia’s great artery in the Far East to transmit influence to Northeast China through the railway. China was very resistant. When Russia was weak, the party that resisted the railway became Russia. Even if China paid to help Russia build it, he would not want it.
When China proposed the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway in 1997, it first encountered two kinds of resistance: Russia and Kyrgyzstan itself.
Despite the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan is a member Republic of the Soviet Union, which makes Russia still regard Kyrgyzstan as its political younger brother and economic private plot.
Kyrgyzstan does not have a railway, but it uses the railway of the former Soviet Union with a gauge of 1520mm (commonly known as wide gauge), while China uses the international standard rail with a gauge of 1435mm.
The reason why the former Soviet Union used wide gauge was purely for war needs. During World War II, the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union, occupied many places and robbed many railways. The Nazis wanted to use railways for transportation. However, because Germany used standard rails and the Soviet Union used wide rails, there was no connection between the two.
Only one section can be transported by standard rail, and then all the materials and personnel carried can be alighted at the place where the wide rail is located, and the transportation efficiency will be greatly reduced.
As soon as the Soviet Union saw that this railway also had the function of national defense, after the war, all railways in the country were built into wide gauge, which was a wonderful work in the world.
In August, 1941, the German army changed Russia’s wide gauge to narrow gauge
After the independence of Kyrgyzstan, the trade with China is the same. Chinese materials are transported to the border first in China, then get off the train, and then get on the broad gauge railway in Kyrgyzstan. The efficiency is very low, which seriously hinders the transaction.
So China told Kyrgyzstan that it would be solved if we built a standard track directly?
However, Russia is not happy. If Kyrgyzstan changes the wide gauge to the standard gauge, it will lead other Central Asian countries to do the same. To put it mildly, Russia will lose the railway equipment market. To put it mildly, Russian standards will be replaced by Chinese standards, which will greatly facilitate the entry of Chinese goods and promote the economic development of China and Central Asia. Central Asia is bound to gradually fall back to China economically.
A hundred Russians in a weak period are unwilling to do so and have been obstructing it.
The specific means is to encourage domestic politicians in Kyrgyzstan to say that this railway will facilitate the transportation of Chinese troops and that the PLA can reach Uzbekistan in three hours.
This railway also costs a lot of money. At first, the cost was estimated to be 900million US dollars, and then it soared to 6.5 billion US dollars. The reason is that Kyrgyzstan is a high-altitude country with many high plateaus and mountains. It must be expensive to build railways in such places.
But Kyrgyzstan can’t afford to pay for it. The only way is to let China pay for it. In exchange, Kyrgyzstan uses mineral resources as collateral. In this way, domestic interest groups in Kyrgyzstan are unhappy, because the only valuable thing in the whole country is minerals.
Pledging to China is tantamount to moving their cake, so the politicians of Kyrgyzstan continue to spread various conspiracy theories.
In the 21st century, the third obstacle has come: the United States.
After the war in Afghanistan, the United States established a bridgehead in Afghanistan and vigorously penetrated into Central Asia. On the one hand, it constantly promoted the color revolution in Central Asian countries, and on the other hand, it tried to station troops in Central Asia.
In march2005, the “Tulip Revolution” took place in Kyrgyzstan. Akatanyev, a pro Russian, was ousted and pro american forces came to power.
Two months later, in May2005, with the support of the United States, a terrorist riot broke out in the Uzbek city of Andijan. Known as the “Andijan incident”, 169 people were killed and thousands injured.
Russia lifted a stone, but hit itself in the foot.
However, it was too late. Russia was unable to stop the United States’ infiltration into Central Asia. It also had illusions about the United States and was always unwilling to let China in. In those years, the situation in Central Asia was extremely serious, which also indirectly hurt us.
This situation did not improve until 2014. Russia partially agreed to China’s entry into Central Asia because of the Crimea incident, which led to a relatively large development of trade between China and Central Asia.
At the same time, the United States has not been able to stand firm in Afghanistan, but is mired in the mire. The United States, which cannot solve the Taliban, is difficult to penetrate into Central Asia. However, the United States is reluctant to invest so much money, so it stays in Afghanistan all the time. Like a gambler, no matter how much it loses, it fantasizes that the next one will win back.
Until Biden came to power, he was finally unable to hold out and made up his mind to withdraw from Afghanistan. Such a withdrawal of the United States means that the door of Central Asia to the United States has been completely closed. Even if there are 20000 NGOs in Kazakhstan, it can not be recovered.
During the Kazakh riots, I said that 20000 NGOs actually wanted to take the opportunity to drag the United States into the water. The United States wanted to get into the water and knew that the water had no good results. After hesitation, NGOs had been destroyed by the Ji’an organization.
As a result, the U.S. factor obstructing the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway has completely disappeared, leaving only the Russian factor.
During the Beijing Winter Olympics, Putin visited China and issued a joint communique with the Chinese side. The communique mentioned that “there is no ceiling on China Russia cooperation” and “promoting economic cooperation between China and the Eurasian union”.
The Eurasian Union, an economic organization led by Russia and led by the former Soviet Union Member States, including Central Asian republics, is in fact completely releasing China into Central Asia.
But please note that at this time, it is only verbal, not necessarily actual. To put it bluntly, this check is short. It is hard to say whether it can be cashed.
After the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, if Russia quickly takes Ukraine and does not need China’s help, then such a check will be short-lived, because at this time Russia does not ask for China;
If Russia fails to win it quickly, but wants to bite it a little, then this check must be cashed.
The current situation is that Russia needs to bite a little bit. It is a war of attrition. Although Russia is likely to win in the end, and its advantages on the battlefield are expanding, it is difficult for Russia, especially in the economy.
At this time, as long as China gives some means, even if it just stops exporting to Xinjiang, the Russian army that relies on Xinjiang schools to fire will be very uncomfortable. Therefore, Putin can only agree to cash the check.
For Russia, it is also a wise move to liberalize this railway. After all, Central Asia has a strong centrifugal force on Russia. The reason is that Russia cannot lead them to prosperity, but it does not let go, leading to growing dissatisfaction with local giants.
It is better to let go. When the railway comes, we can make a big cake, and Russia can export more goods. Today, when Russia is sanctioned by the west, it is too important to make a big cake for the Central Asian economy and find more markets for Russia. Only China can do this task.
Interest groups in Kyrgyzstan can only agree that although Kyrgyzstan is rich in minerals, no one has developed them. It is equivalent to begging for a golden rice bowl. It is better to mortgage it to China for some money. At the same time, the opening of the railway will also promote economic development and make far more money than now.
The China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway can be started as soon as next year. Once it is opened, China’s influence will reach Uzbekistan directly and bring Chinese standards to Central Asia. This railway will not be the first. With the exemplary role of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway, other Central Asian countries will also join in.
China Europe train planning map, orange is the section between China and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan
The eastern part of Kazakhstan, the core economic zone, namely the seven River Basin, is very suitable for building a railway connecting Xinjiang, China.
As the bridgehead of China’s the Belt and Road, Xinjiang is bound to become a blue ocean for future development. The United States has seen this and tried its best to make things in Xinjiang. There are a large number of outstanding enterprises in Xinjiang, such as the milk of Tianrun dairy. I always like the taste.
Previously, I bought a few hands, but I just supported them. I don’t plan to make money through this. The following is based on the market of futu Niuniu and Tianrun dairy. Interested friends can learn about it by themselves.
Back to Central Asia, Central Asia has extremely rich resources and is an ideal source of raw materials. At the same time, it has a population of more than 70 million, and its development potential is not small. With the two raw material producing areas of Central Asia and Russia, plus the Southeast Asian market, the future will be basically stable.
The China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway will be the beginning of new China’s economic strategy in the western regions.
In history, both Han and Tang Dynasties gained prosperity after controlling the western regions. It is not that the western regions have any treasures, but that the western regions are in the center of Eurasia and the center of the trade routes, which means great wealth.
Territory of Yuan Dynasty
A country that controls the trade routes must be export-oriented economically and positive spiritually, which is also the reason why the Han and Tang Dynasties gave people an upward impression. After losing the western regions, not only the Tang Dynasty’s finance was damaged, but also the Chinese character gradually became introverted.
The works of art in the Tang Dynasty gave people a positive and optimistic spirit. In the Song Dynasty, especially the Southern Song Dynasty, there was only a remnant of mountains and rivers, which was very awkward. Therefore, the significance of trade routes for national development could not be overstated.
The world famous work “three body” says that only export-oriented civilization can survive.
Yellow sand wears golden armour in hundred battles, but it will not be returned until the Loulan is broken.
Western regions, we are back!