What can we see from the “five new trends” of the Russian Ukrainian conflict?

Spread the love

Source: official account: once shot

The four month war between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen the end. Netizens and experts say so. If you can’t see the end, you should see the trend. Of course, you should see the new trend. We should not only look at new trends on the battlefield, but also jump out of the battlefield to see new trends outside the closely related battlefield. From the new trends, we can see the trend of the war. Although we can’t see when it will end, we can see what the outcome is. What can I see from the “five new trends” of the Russian Ukrainian war? Friends will have the answer after reading this article.

New trend 1: the Russian coalition forces launched a “battle to end”

In the same plant area, the remains of the Ukrainian army, which are also surrounded by the Russian allied forces, are also drilling tunnels, and have meat shields. The remains of the Ukrainian army in the northern Donetsk azote chemical plant are performing the same story as the “Mariupol” Asian speed steel plant.


Azote chemical plant

According to Reuters, the Ukrainian military administrator of Lugansk region Gaidai said that the Russian army had blown up the last bridge between the city of northern Donetsk and the city of lisichansk. The Russian Federation news agency reported that the bridge was blown up by the Uzbek side.

No matter who blew it up, the bridge is broken. Although it will have a certain impact on the Russian army’s next attack on lycansk, what is broken now is the idea of beidunwu army retreating to lycansk. Looking at the river, the Uzbek army also wanted to see if it could retreat from the southwest chemical plant to the West in the direction of ruby day. It was hopeless. In this direction, “no fly can fly out”.

The Uruguayan army, which had no choice but to retreat, only staged the scene of the mariupole Yasu steel plant at the azut chemical plant. Using the huge factory area, complex fortifications, and nearly a thousand civilians in the factory area as meat shields, using dangerous chemicals as shields, and relying on the commanding artillery support of lisichansk on the other side of the river to make a dying struggle.

The Russian Defense Ministry proposed last Wednesday that Ukrainian army personnel who stick to the azut factory should “lay down their weapons” and stop “meaningless resistance”. It will ensure the safety of these surrendered soldiers, “just like those who surrendered in Mariupol before”.

Issuing an ultimatum often heralds the “battle to end”.

Gaidai, the main military and political leader of Ukraine in Lugansk Oblast, admitted that the Russian army is gathering superior forces to besiege the city group of lisichansk on the North Donetsk river. At present, the Ukrainian army has great military pressure in the region.

According to the latest news, the Ukrainian State News Agency reported on June 20 that the Russian military’s combat mission was to capture the entire territory of Lugansk region about 26 days ago, citing Anna maliar, Deputy Minister of defense of Ukraine.

Please note that this is the date when the Uzbek side said that the Russian army would “occupy the whole territory”. Did the Ukrainian army get information from the Russian army? There is a possibility. However, there is a greater possibility, that is, in the face of the strong offensive of the Russian coalition forces, the Ukrainian army thinks it can only hold on to the 26th.

Regardless of whether the Russian army can “occupy the whole territory” on the 26th, the strategic bridgehead of northern Donetsk is already in the Russian army’s pocket, and the lisichansk across the river is also in danger. The “closing battle” of the Russian coalition forces to “liberate” Lugansk has begun.

New trend 2: US Western attitude “changing tone”

The United States has always supported Ukraine to fight, but recently the White House spokesman said: we hope to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine through negotiations, and added that Ukraine must be in a favorable position before the negotiations.

On the 16th, the press secretary of the Russian President Peskov said that Russia would not negotiate with the United States on the Ukrainian issue. If Russia, which has the initiative in the battlefield and is gaining momentum, fails to achieve its goal, isn’t it bullshit to negotiate with you?

Why is the United States inclined to negotiate? In short, the United States knows better than anyone that Ukraine cannot win. To keep fighting, Ukraine is a “bottomless pit”, and it must be dissatisfied with the amount of military aid. Looking at Russia’s leisurely and unhurried play, it wants to drain the US and the West.

It is hard to say whether Russia will “nibble” on Odessa after it has nibbled on Donbas, or even the Dnieper River. In that case, the United States must urge the two sides to negotiate before the end of the Donbas war, so as to prevent Russia from winning more territory in Ukraine.

Once the Russian army eats the elite main force of Donbas, the morale and quality of the Ukrainian army will be greatly reduced, and the difficulty of “gnawing” will be reduced. Moreover, the Russian army’s method of “exchanging firepower for troops and time for space” has small wastage and low cost. It does not hurt muscles and bones, nor does it hurt the original spirit. Moreover, the Russian army has mobile forces available, and has constantly put “new weapons” into the battlefield.

On June 20, the Russian army launched a new “305” high-precision missile from the mi-28nm attack helicopter to destroy important military targets in Ukraine

I can see it. Can’t the United States, which has been worrying about Ukraine, see it? In a Ukraine subdued by Russia, it is the United States that slaps the face, the West that harms, and Russia that benefits.

Therefore, the United States does not want Russia to gnaw more territory.

Combined with a series of recent words and deeds of western countries, it seems that the Western attitude towards the Ukrainian issue is undergoing major changes!

Macron had previously called for “don’t humiliate Russia” to find a diplomatic way out. It means to obtain a cease-fire agreement at the price of concessions to Russia, just like the United States and NATO.

A friend would like to ask again. Isn’t the United States and the West still providing arms to Ukraine? After reading “trend 3”, you will understand that there is a “mystery” in providing arms.

New trend 3: new round of military assistance “hidden mystery”

On June 15, Biden informed skey that the United States would provide Ukraine with 1billion dollars of additional security assistance “to support their defense operations in Donbas”.

The largest single amount of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine this time: 18 m777 ultra light howitzers and supporting traction vehicles (108 and 220000 shells have been provided before, most of which have been delivered), 36000 155 mm shells, 2 sets of shore based “harpoon” anti-ship missiles, more m142 “haimas” highly mobile rocket ammunition, 4 repair vehicles, thousands of encryption radios and thousands of optical equipment including night vision equipment,

After “setting an example”, the United States led a large group of younger brothers in a wider range of military aid crowdfunding. Including East Asian and South American countries, 50 countries participated in the Ukrainian military aid “crowdfunding” conference held in Brussels on June 15.

So, when will the weapons be delivered?

The US side is very straightforward. This batch of military assistance will arrive in Ukraine from August, that is, it will not arrive in the battlefield until more than 40 days later.

Speed is the most important thing. However, the shipment from the United States “will arrive in Ukraine from August”. When all the goods will arrive is unknown. In other words, it is not a one-time “package” arrival, but a “sheep shit – scattered” transportation. Will the Ukrainian army still have time to use it in the Donbas battlefield?

According to Zelinski, the Ukrainian army suffered 500 casualties every day. After 40 days, the Ukrainian army lost another 20000 personnel. Could it be that the weapons came and the people were gone?

In addition, the German government announced that it would provide three sets of m270 rockets, which will be delivered at the end of July or early August. These three sets will take 40 days. What do you mean?

Canada, Poland and the Netherlands announced that they would assist an unknown number of artillery, and Slovakia would provide an unknown number of Mi-17 series helicopters.

Zelensky also hopes that the NATO summit to be held this month will receive more military assistance. How much “more” is remains to be seen. But what is certain is that it will be revealed in a few days.

The amount of this round of military assistance seems to be quite large. Even if all of them “arrive” in the battlefield safely, their firepower index is still far from that of the Russian army. For example, 18 m777 howitzers were provided this time to supplement the quantity destroyed by the Ukrainian army in the eastern Ukrainian battlefield. In other words, the stock of m777 howitzers is still less than the previous quantity.

This is a far cry from the Ukrainian army’s requirement that the United States provide 300 hippocampus, 1000 m777 and long-range air defense missile systems. The damage will be as great as it wants.

The United States now has no confidence in the Ukrainian army to reverse the defeat in the eastern Ukrainian battlefield. Instead, it is worried that the Ukrainian monkeys who have been seriously injured by the original gas will be able to repay these military aid debts every year? I don’t want to do this.

Then why should we provide a new round of military assistance?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made it clear at the press conference in Helsinki on June 12 that it is possible to achieve peace in Ukraine. The question is how much territory, freedom and democracy Ukraine is willing to pay for this peace.


On June 12, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gave a press conference in Helsinki

Stoltenberg also added that NATO intends to continue to provide weapons, “to help Ukraine give it the strongest position in the negotiations with Russia, and the negotiations should end the combat operations.”

This is where the “hidden mystery” of the new round of military assistance lies.

New trends four, five giants visit Ukraine “platform cheer”

The leaders of Germany, France and Italy, together with the president of Romania, gathered in Kiev on the 16th, which attracted the attention of the world. The three giants who travel together have a meeting on the train at night, just like the uncle next door, discussing the survival of Ukraine in such a relaxed atmosphere. Is it western “Romance” or “arrogance”?


Draghi, makron and Scholz (from left to right) enter Ukraine by night train

The leaders of the four countries have teamed up to “form a group” and made a high-profile announcement of “punching in” a country burning with war. Do you have to say so?

In fact, it means that.

It means “draw a big cake”. The leaders of the four countries expressed their support for Ukraine to “immediately obtain the candidacy of EU Member States”. “Joining the EU” is, of course, ZELINSKY’s dream, but the big four don’t count. It’s like drawing a cake. Can you satisfy your hunger? Ask skey.

Give me some ammunition.

Zelensky once shouted, “I struggle every day for the weapons and equipment needed by Ukraine for the war of resistance against Japan.” In front of the giants, Zelinski pleaded: “we thank our partners for their support. We look forward to new deliveries, mainly heavy weapons, rockets and anti missile systems…”

Did you beg? In addition to the 12 “Caesar” self-propelled howitzers that have been delivered, makron decided to give Ukraine another 6 “Caesar” howitzers, and collected the equipment of a self-propelled howitzer battalion. It is quite interesting.

Germany, on the other hand, provided Ukraine with three sets of m270 rockets and claimed that this was its limit. Providing more m270 Rockets would affect the combat readiness of the German army. So you Scholz went to Kiev to punch in soy sauce? President skey just didn’t say it.

Means “send an invitation”. The G7 summit will be held in Bavaria, Germany, at the end of June. The host, German Chancellor Scholz, invited President Zelensky to attend the meeting, which can be regarded as a remedy for the “arms shortage”.

It means “cheer up”. Macron changed his previous low-key: “Europe is on Ukraine’s side and will continue to stand on the same front until victory.” Scholz has a higher tone: “as long as we fight for Ukraine’s independence, we will continue to help.”. Draghi said that Italy will express its support at the next European Council meeting.

After a long search, I found these expressive “achievements”. In a word, the symbolic meaning of “punch in” is greater than the practical meaning, which can be seen from President ski’s very unhappy expression.


Interestingly, when the leaders of the four countries visited Ukraine, the supply of natural gas in Europe was reduced. The Russian side said: This is a technical reason.

Such a coincidence, the earth people know.

What is quite dramatic is that, unlike the “group” of Germany, Italy and Romania, British Prime Minister Johnson went to Kiev to “punch in” and said to ZELINSKY that Britain would continue to provide Ukraine with military equipment and a large-scale military personnel training program that could change the war balance. The program would train up to 10000 military personnel for Ukraine every four months at the earliest.

Johnson, known as “golden Mao” by netizens, really said a “golden sentence” this time – “it can change the balance of war”. Why change? Training 10000 military personnel for Ukraine in four months.

I wonder if President ski believes in this plan to “change the balance of war”? In my opinion, even if Britain directly invests 10000 people, that is, one division, it will not change the “war balance”.

On June 15, mark Milly, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff of the US Army, stressed in his speech at the NATO headquarters that he told the Ukrainians that “weapons are not omnipotent” and that no conventional weapons can really turn the situation around.

This is the direct response of the top U.S. military commander to ZELINSKY’s “complaint about weapons”, and it is also a professional judgment on the “irreversible” situation in the Russian Ukrainian battlefield.

New trend 5: Putin said to complete “all tasks”

On June 17, Putin stressed at the St. Petersburg international economic forum that “all tasks of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine will be completed, and the courage and heroism of our soldiers are the guarantee.”

Putin’s confident declaration is by no means a verbal addiction. The United States and the West have no doubt about this, but are trying to delay the time limit for Russia to complete its tasks and increase its consumption.

Because the United States and the West have not only seen Russia’s unstoppable victory on the battlefield, but also seen that Russia has got rid of its passivity and gradually gained the upper hand in dealing with the “hybrid war” launched by the United States and the West.

With the remnants of the Ukrainian army in northern Donetsk besieged, there is no doubt that the Russian army will win the decisive battle in Donbas. So, how about Russia’s “mixed war” that is being heated up?

Here is a brief observation from the most important “three dimensions”.

The first dimension of “mixed warfare” is “economic warfare”. It was the US and the West that imposed sanctions on Russia, but in the end, the US and the West were caught in a serious inflation crisis. The economic sanctions were “countered” by Russia. In May alone, the US inflation rate reached a 40 year high of 8.6%, and the inflation rate of some euro zone countries reached 20%. There are also a lot of ugly figures. Here we will take care of the face of “Meifen” and not post them.

Let’s take a look at several groups of data on the results of Russia’s “economic war”: in the first four months of this year, industrial production increased by 3.9%; Inflation is under control and is now zero; The unemployment rate fell to an all-time low of 4% in April; Retail sales in May increased by 5.4% year-on-year; The price rise stopped in the second half of May; Pensions and the minimum wage have risen by 10 per cent since June 1.

Properly “stop the decline and rebound, and make progress while maintaining stability”. What should have gone up, and it seems that what should not have gone up, can not be stopped.

In a comment two months ago, I said, “since the start of the war, Russia has provided about 500million dollars more natural gas to the EU every day than before. However, Russia’s daily expenditure on the battlefield is only $200 million or $300 million. Apart from those burned by the war, is it just making money without losing money?”

Now after four months of fighting, Russia has been resurrected with blood. The fiscal profit from January to April exceeded 1.1 trillion rubles, equivalent to 95.8 billion US dollars, more than three times that of 2021, setting a record for Russia’s fiscal revenue in 28 years. In April alone, the surplus was nearly 800billion rubles.

The war economic myth created by Russia certainly has the back-to-back support of the eastern powers, but it is more the “divine help” of the United States and the West.

In the 100 days after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia earned 93billion euros by exporting energy, of which the European Union contributed 57billion euros.

Ironically, during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States bought Russian oil wildly, increasing by 100000 barrels a day, an increase of 43%. The name of “nature’s Porter” of Nongfu spring can give way to American oil tycoons.

On June 11, the United States also made a big deal of 2billion rubles with Russia. After carrying it for more than a month, the United States had no choice but to use 2billion rubles to pay Russia for the “flying” of American astronaut van der Haida, who flew to the international space station in the Russian “Soyuz” spacecraft.

No comparison, no harm. Putin humiliated Biden. The United States has to admit that Russia sells more oil and gas and earns more.

Let’s look at the second dimension of “mixed warfare”, namely “diplomatic warfare”. Among the 193 member states of the United Nations, only more than 40 countries participated in the US led sanctions against Russia, and nearly 150 countries remained neutral or continued to cooperate with Russia. The US plan to isolate Russia completely failed.


Participants in St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Hall

Surprisingly, the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which ended on June 18, still attracted entrepreneurs from 139 countries and regions, even some of whom were listed as “unfriendly countries and regions” by the Russian government, even though the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was still ongoing.

This economic forum is not a purely academic exchange. It is the kind of economic cooperation agreement signed with projects. How about it?

The data are dazzling, and the west is envious and envious. According to the latest data, 691 cooperation agreements were signed during the four-day forum, with a total amount of about 5.6 trillion rubles, or about 97billion US dollars, an increase of 30% over last year’s 3.8 trillion rubles. Kobayakov, an adviser to the Russian President and executive secretary of the Forum Organizing Committee, could not help saying: “of course, we only announce figures that are not trade secrets.” I’m sorry, but I have no comment on the data involving trade secrets.

This year’s “economic event” in Russia marks that Russia has broken through the “two-way siege” of the diplomatic isolation war and economic sanctions war led by the United States and the West in addition to the military war in Ukraine.

The third dimension of “mixed warfare” is “public opinion warfare”, which is not discussed here. Everyone knows it.

The once rampant western media has ceased. Because as rumors have been broken down, the skins of lies have been torn off. Even if the west, which has the right to speak, wants to make more achievements in the “war of public opinion”, it is a waste of effort to find hair on the tortoise shell.

Now it seems that after the “special military action” has just started, the false information released by the western media, which is fabricated out of nothing, framed, exaggerated and disgusting, is some laughing stock. I’m sorry to say here, because it’s really not up to grade.

From the above “five new trends” friends, we can see the trend and outcome of the war. Russia is determined to win without suspense, Ukraine has no hope of recovering its lost territory, and the United States has no cards in the West against Russia and supporting Ukraine.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *