Source: Jingsiyouwo666
In the past month or so, the epidemic situation across the country has become more and more serious, and I feel very anxious. Because the number of people infected every day across the country is obviously increasing, at the same time, many people seem to have loosened their determination to fight the epidemic. On November 11, the state released 20 measures to optimize epidemic prevention and control, which should be an important node in China’s epidemic resistance. 20 points does not mean to open and lie flat, but means to fight the epidemic more accurately, so I compare it to seven inches.
Up to now, nearly 20 days after the release of the 20 articles, the epidemic resistance situation is still severe, even more stressful, and its outstanding performance is in two aspects:
On the one hand, the number of people infected throughout the country is increasing. On November 10, 1150 cases were newly diagnosed locally in 31 provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions and Xinjiang Construction Corps, and 9385 cases of asymptomatic infections were newly diagnosed locally, totaling more than 10000. Five days later, on November 15, the number exceeded 20000. Eight days later, on November 23, the number exceeded 30000. On November 27, four days later, the number exceeded 40000. It goes without saying what this situation means.
At the same time, on the other hand, a lot of current information shows that some people’s understanding and support for the epidemic prevention is declining. We won’t talk about the details. The videos and information circulating on the Internet are also true and false, so I won’t talk about the specific content. I will say an abstract content. On November 23, the Guangdong Higher People’s Court issued Several Opinions on Service Guarantee, Epidemic Prevention and Control and Economic and Social Development. The opinion requires that epidemic related crimes should be punished according to law, and that violent resistance to epidemic prevention and control measures, invasion of the safety of medical personnel and epidemic prevention personnel, disruption of health and medical order, deliberate spread of viruses, nucleic acid detection fraud, rumor mongering, gathering trouble, driving up prices, money fraud and other illegal and criminal acts should be combated according to law. We can infer that we have been fighting against the epidemic for nearly three years, and there are not many opinion documents like this, which indicates that the situation targeted by this opinion may increase in the near future.
One message that echoes my reasoning is that the client of China Youth Daily reported on November 24 that at the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Guangzhou, Xu Xin, the director of the Publicity Department of the Command Center of Guangzhou Public Security Bureau, said that in recent days, in some epidemic prevention and control areas, some people moved around and went out without permission; Some people do not abide by the control order and randomly cross check; Some even gathered to flush the cards and walked out of the control area, suspected of violating the national epidemic prevention laws and regulations.
Such information has been available in the past three years, but it seems to me that it is more obvious now than in the past.
This information can be simply expressed in colloquial terms as follows: the public’s cooperation in epidemic prevention and control seems to be decreasing, or it can be said that the tolerance for control measures is decreasing.
To sum up, on the one hand, the number of infected people is on the rise, and on the other hand, the degree of public cooperation in management and control is declining.
In a general sense, this form should attract our attention. Because from a general logic analysis, when the number of infected people increases, they should strengthen control accordingly, but the cooperation of the masses has declined. If this contradiction is not resolved, our anti epidemic situation will become more serious.
So, what is the reason for this very anxious situation?
Let’s start with the rise in the number of infections.
The core connotation of Article 20 is to hit the snake and hit seven inches. In the past, we fought epidemic diseases like fighting snakes. When we saw snakes, everyone rushed forward and killed them. Since each epidemic control measure has a negative impact on the production and life of the people, we should minimize this negative impact, and we cannot expand and upgrade the control indefinitely. Therefore, we should make precise prevention and control, and use good steel for the blade. Therefore, 20 measures have been stipulated, and it is not allowed to add code layer by layer. The scope of control should be limited, not limitless; The time of control should also be measured, not endless.
This means that when we fight snakes, we should not attack the head, body and tail in an all-round way. Instead, we should concentrate on hitting the key points.
In the past, if seven inches were not accurate, we could probably kill the snake with head, body and tail. Now, we only play seven inches. If we can’t play seven inches correctly, our risk will be great. So I think that the reason for the recent increase in the number of infected people is, of course, related to the faster spread of the virus in cold weather. From the perspective of our prevention and control actions, it is very likely that we are not accurate enough to hit seven inches.
So next, we must improve our skills. Just like a sniper, we should aim when shooting. If we can’t fight, the enemy will pounce on us.
This is my analysis of the increase in the number of infections.
Next, why did some people’s cooperation in epidemic control decline.
I think there are two main reasons.
The first aspect is that some people have doubts about whether to carry out dynamic zeroing.
I think that in the face of the new variety of COVID-19, Omikjon virus, this year, the issue of whether we should insist on dynamic zeroing has been discussed insufficiently, which has led to different views in the minds of some people. This is objective.
The reason for this situation is that the Omicron virus has new characteristics.
The new feature of mysterious cloning virus is its low mortality rate, which means that if it is infected, it probably won’t die. This is the truth. This inevitably reminds us that we should not wipe it out completely.
The weirdness of the problem is that the number of deaths per 100 infected people is indeed lower than that of the Delta virus in the previous two years, but the total number of infected people caused by Omicron is increasing. The final result is that the total number of deaths is not significantly lower than that in the previous two years. This figure has been confirmed by the data of western countries. For example, 380000 people will die in the United States in 2020, 460000 in 2021, and the main body will be Omicron virus in the first half of 2022. By the end of September, 240000 people will have died. It is estimated that more than 320000 people will die this year.
But the problem is that in our public opinion, there are many voices about the low mortality rate of Omicron virus, and the number of Omicron infections is large, so the number of deaths is not significantly lower than that of the virus in the previous two years, which is relatively small.
This will inevitably lead to vague understanding among some people.
This is the first new feature of Omicron virus.
The second new feature is that Omikjon mainly attacks the elderly, children and patients with basic diseases. We focus on the elderly.
Omikjon caused a high mortality rate for the elderly, which led to a new problem. It was speculated that these elderly might have died, that is, they might have died without COVID-19.
This inevitably makes people feel as if they can not carry out dynamic zeroing.
The question is, although the virus mainly attacks the elderly, is it true that the elderly who died because of the virus would have died?
On this issue, I am waiting for the mouse experiment in the United States. I compare the anti epidemic policy of the United States to that of the United States, which compares its own people to mice. So I’m waiting for a number, waiting for the number of American deaths in 2022.
If the death toll in 2022 in the United States is about the same as that in normal years, then it can be assumed that more than 300000 people will die because of the Omicron COVID-19. However, if the death toll in 2022 in the United States is significantly higher than that in normal years, it means that the elderly who died due to mysterious cloning of COVID-19 will not die in normal years. The difference between these two figures is called excess deaths.
I am not a medical worker. I can only find the answer from the information I can accept. However, it will take several months to get the result through my path.
Then, according to this routine, we have to wait a few months for dynamic reset.
So I think, from a scientific point of view, it is more necessary to explain to the masses whether we should adhere to dynamic zero setting.
This reminds me of an article published by Hu Xijin in early November. The general meaning of what he said is that everyone is now discussing whether to conduct dynamic zeroing, and then whether to conduct dynamic zeroing? He shouted in the article that experts would come out to speak.
I very much agree with Hu Xijin’s appeal. But so far, I have not seen any experts with special authority, and I have gone deep into saying this. As a result, the common people only have their own discussions. Most of them are amateurs like me. It is difficult to reach a consensus between amateurs and amateurs even if there is a lot of controversy.
Let’s go back to the discussion on whether to conduct dynamic zeroing in the Chinese public opinion field this year. I rarely see experts speak out with determination.
We can imagine that when the masses do not have a highly unified consensus on whether to adhere to dynamic zero clearing, their understanding and cooperation in epidemic prevention and control may be compromised.
Let’s add another point of view of Hu Xijin. He believed that the Urumqi fire killed 10 people. Many rumors on the Internet said that the door of the building was locked in the process of epidemic prevention and control. At last, Urumqi held a press conference to explain in detail that this was not the case. Lao Hu commented on this matter, saying that although the public had no accurate connection with the epidemic prevention and control, one of the reasons for this mentality was that the prevention and control time was too long, and the public’s tolerance to the epidemic prevention and control was very limited, so they always thought about this aspect when encountering problems.
I think his analysis is particularly reasonable.
But I want to talk about him further.
It is about three months since Urumqi started prevention and control in August. At the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the closure of Wuhan began on January 23, and the release of Wuhan began on April 8, about three months. However, in the first half of 2020, we did not find the epidemic prevention and control measures taken by the people in Wuhan.
Why is this? I think mentality is very important. During the closure of Wuhan in the first half of 2020, all the people believed that the city should be closed, so they could persevere and had strong spiritual strength. In contrast, this year’s closure and control, many people are not as firm about the necessity of “dynamic reset” as they were in the first half of 2020, so their tolerance is lower.
Therefore, I would like to say that one thing that needs to be summarized in this year’s anti epidemic campaign is why we should adhere to dynamic zero clearing. We should not only tell the masses the conclusion, but also explain the logic behind it.
Have we been reasonable yet? The answer is: Yes. Whether it is the national press conference, or the national documents and comments of authoritative media, they have all been mentioned. The Xinhua News Agency’s editorial on November 28 said again that the original words were as follows: “China is a country with a large population, with 267 million people aged 60 and above, more than 250 million children, and a large population of one old and one young.”
The next question is, why is the effect not as good as before?
I think it’s not enough to talk about it.
Why do you say that? After nearly three years of anti epidemic, there have been several rounds of public opinion. In the new round, there were new voices in the public opinion arena, and we did not respond effectively and timely. Let me talk about these rounds.
The first round is: the virus will kill people. I remember that when the epidemic just broke out in early 2020, Academician Zhong Nanshan said definitely that “there must be human to human transmission”. With this sentence, we have unified our thinking. This unity is based on the logic that viruses can kill people. In this first round, this sentence is enough, so the people of Wuhan can withstand the closure of the city for nearly three months without much complaint, and the social aspect is generally stable.
However, just like any war or fight, there is a first round, a second round and a third round. For example, in terms of the necessity of epidemic prevention and control, after the first round, the second round will follow. That is the previously mentioned view: viruses can cause death, but the death rate of Omikjon virus is low.
What should we do at this time? If public opinion guidance only stays at this level, it will naturally shake the determination of dynamic zeroing, so we must make a new answer to such a new question in the public opinion field, just like Academician Zhong Nanshan’s answer to the question of whether COVID-19 will spread from person to person and die in early 2020.
Have we answered this question? Yes. But I don’t think so, especially the lack of very professional and authoritative answers, especially the lack of repeated and in-depth analysis. Therefore, some people heard this answer, while others did not. Some people hear it, but they are not authoritative. For example, they hear the analysis of a non professional like me.
This is the second round on whether to “dynamically reset”. In fact, just having this second round is not enough, because I have just analyzed that even if I answered the second question, that is, although the death rate of Omicron virus is low, there are many people infected with it. A high number of infected people multiplied by a relatively low case fatality rate will still result in a high number of deaths. Even if I have answered the second round, there will be a third round, that is, Whether the old people who died because of COVID-19 would have died.
Publicity is also a war. The position will be repeatedly contested. Our enemy is the vague understanding in our mind, and of course, the prying eyes of foreign hostile forces. And I think we won in the first round, so we quickly won the epidemic prevention and control in 2020. By 2022, however, we will not fight thoroughly, or win overwhelmingly, in the second and third rounds of the unification of ideas. One of the most obvious manifestations is the lack of authoritative voice. I don’t mean there is no sound, but there is not enough sound.
If the voice is not enough, it will naturally cause some confusion and confusion. Ambiguity and confusion naturally affect the people’s determination to adhere to the “dynamic reset”.
This is one of the reasons I understand that, on the one hand, the number of infected people is rising rapidly, and on the other hand, some people’s understanding and support for epidemic prevention and control has declined.
The second reason is that in the process of epidemic prevention and control, there are indeed some things that are difficult for the masses to understand, which are also the main targets of the 20 prevention and control measures. For example, there must be an end to the time of containment, right? Can’t be far away? For another example, containment is containment, but the critical patients need to be hospitalized. Do you want to have a special green channel? We saw many facts reported and found that although there were no big mistakes in most cases, there was no special green channel. Recently, notices have been issued all over the country to completely solve this problem. This is also one of the important contents of the 20 articles on epidemic prevention and control on November 11.
As far as the closure of the epidemic is concerned, even after the issuance of Article 20, similar incidents throughout the country have not been completely eliminated. I want to share with my friends a message sent to me by a friend of mine yesterday. Since the beginning of 2020, none of the communities he lives in has been positive, but they have been closed for another 5 days. After the expiration of five days, a temporary notice will be issued for another four days. So the people in their community quit and almost gathered to rush out.
To tell the truth, I am not a professional epidemic prevention and control personnel. I don’t know the logic behind this. I understand from the general perspective of ordinary people that since the outbreak of the epidemic, there has not been a positive community for more than two years. It has been sealed for five days, and then another four days. It will be changed soon. What is this? What the hell is this?
In this case, the masses will feel that the prevention and control of the epidemic is unscientific, or even unnecessary, so the coordination of the masses on the prevention and control of the epidemic will decline, which may cause great harm. Because the masses clearly target the prevention and control measures that they think are not necessary. However, the masses cannot accurately target everything every time. The best effect of epidemic prevention and control is that the prevention and control measures are scientific and accurate, and the people can accept the measures.
If the epidemic prevention and control measures are not accurate, which leads to the people’s rejection of some measures, then if the measures that the people do not accept are just inappropriate measures, there is not much side effect. But if the measures that the masses do not accept happen to be the kind of very necessary measures, how can we control the epidemic?
So I concluded that there are two reasons for the decline of the public’s cooperation with the epidemic prevention and control measures. First, there is no thorough explanation. Second, there is no real concern for the production and life of the people in the process of prevention and control.
In this regard, I would like to make a special note that the prevention and control of the epidemic will definitely have an impact on production and life. The problem is that those who must be taken care of must be taken care of, and those unnecessary impacts must be eliminated. For example, since the beginning of 2020, there has not been a positive community. Why is it sealed for 5 days and then sealed for 4 days. For example, when an emergency patient is ill, he should be sent to the hospital immediately. Why should he report to the hospital level by level and repeatedly report for approval? Why can’t the ambulance come after the approval?
The root of all this is that we did not maintain close ties with the masses and did not follow the mass line.
The mass line is the lifeblood and fundamental working line of our Party, and also the fundamental policy of our state organs. The standard expression of the mass line is five sentences: the first sentence is that everything is for the masses; In the second sentence, everything depends on the masses; Third, from the masses; In the fourth sentence, go to the masses; In the fifth sentence, turn the Party’s propositions into conscious actions of the masses.
Our epidemic prevention and control is to implement the policy of “all for the masses”, that is, we should adhere to the concept of people first and life first in epidemic prevention and control. However, everything is for the benefit of the masses, including both their fundamental interests and their immediate interests. For example, in the process of closure and control, if pregnant women are about to give birth and there are emergency and critical patients, what should we do?
Chairman Mao said in his article “Care about the lives of the masses and pay attention to working methods” on January 27, 1934:
“We should pay deep attention to the problems of people’s lives. From land labor to food, rice, oil and salt, women should learn to plow and harrow, and who should teach them? Children ask to read, but have primary schools been set up yet? The wooden bridge across the street is too small to fall over pedestrians, so should we not repair it? Many people have sores and diseases. What can we do?”
I don’t know how my friends will feel after reading Chairman Mao’s words. One of my feelings is that Chairman Mao has told us a lot of great truths in our impression, but from this text, how specific do you see Chairman Mao’s words? Yes, the life of the masses is very specific, so when the epidemic prevention and control, we really need to think more about the meaning of Chairman Mao’s article when there are emergency patients and pregnant women who want to have children.
This is the understanding of the first sentence of the mass line, “Everything is for the masses”. Next comes the second sentence, “Everything depends on the masses”.
In everything we do, including the current epidemic prevention and control, we must rely on the masses. Without the support of the masses, the hard battle of epidemic prevention and control cannot be won.
So how to rely on the masses? I think the first point is to make it clear to the masses why we should do this, specifically, why we should carry out dynamic zeroing. However, as I analyzed earlier, I think why we should adhere to the principle of dynamic zeroing when facing the new COVID-19 and new variety of Omicron this year is not enough, not thorough and not authoritative. We are more likely to tell the masses directly about the conclusion. As for the reasons that led to this conclusion, we did not go deep enough.
A very direct evidence of what I said is that since this year, our ideological unity on whether to adhere to dynamic zeroing is far lower than that when we carried out national epidemic prevention and control in early 2020.
Let us repeat the third sentence of the mass line, “From the masses”. This sentence means that we should listen to the opinions of the masses whether it is a big policy or a small measure, because the masses have the most say in their own affairs and their feelings. I think many prevention and control measures that are divorced from reality do not follow the principle of coming from the masses. I can’t give a negative example. I’ll give a positive one now. For example, on November 28, when the Guangzhou Municipal Health Commission released a new implementation plan for nucleic acid testing, it was pointed out that the long-term elderly at home, daily online students, home office workers and other people without social activities could not participate in the nucleic acid screening for all if they did not need to go out. To put it simply, if you are not positive in the first place, and you stay at home all the time, you can not participate in the whole staff’s nucleic acid screening, so that you will not only have less things to do, and the burden of nucleic acid testing will be reduced, but also reduce the risk of infection when nucleic acid sampling and crowd gathering.
This truth is too clear. As far as I know, many people have been talking, thinking and saying about this measure since this year. What I want to say is that this measure, as far as I know, is actually the wisdom of the masses. In fact, it is not wisdom, but common sense. Why do the masses have such wisdom? Because the masses know themselves best. I think this measure of Guangzhou is to further implement the line of “coming from the masses”. Next, what good prevention and control measures can we find from the voice and wisdom of the masses in the process of epidemic prevention and control? I think there is still great potential to be tapped.
This is the understanding of the third sentence of the mass line, “from the masses”. Next, we will say the fourth sentence of the mass line, “Go to the masses”, and the fifth sentence, “Turn the Party’s propositions into conscious actions of the masses”.
I spent a lot of time today talking about why we still insist on dynamic zero clearing as we did in the previous two years under the attack of the Omicron virus. Our reasoning is not thorough enough. When we think of some recent events, we can feel that the support and cooperation of the masses for epidemic prevention and control has declined. This situation, expressed in the context of the mass line, is the fifth sentence of the mass line, which is that the Party’s correct propositions have not been well translated into the conscious actions of the masses.
The state’s prevention and control measures have not turned into conscious action among some people, which is the fourth sentence of the mass line.
Chairman Mao said in his report entitled “On the United Government”, which was written at the Seventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China, “Our comrades should not think that they know what they know. The broad masses also know as well as themselves. Whether the masses have understood and are willing to take action should be investigated among the masses. If we do this, we can avoid commandism.”
When I read Chairman Mao’s words today, I feel that his words in 1945, 77 years ago, are particularly suitable for our current epidemic prevention and control.
Chairman Mao specifically mentioned one word in this paragraph: “commandism”. In the current epidemic prevention and control, there is no obvious order. However, if the reason is not in place, there is no authoritative expert. Or when reasoning, we can directly say the conclusion, not the logic; Or when speaking logically, we should not touch the pain point of the masses’ thinking. In a few words, the masses still have doubts. Then, according to the conclusion that the masses have not yet fully accepted, we should make arrangements. This may not be standard commandism, but it has the shadow of “commanding the world, dare not follow” commandism.
Let’s repeat the fifth sentence of the mass line once again: “Turn the Party’s correct propositions into the conscious actions of the masses.”
Among them, the most basic and the most important one is to make clear to the masses why the Party advocates this way and why the country arranges this way? Why does the government deploy like this? If we don’t make it clear, how can it become a conscious action of the masses?
Of course, even if it is clearly stated that going to the masses also needs to be tested among the masses, and then come from the masses, continuously optimize, improve and upgrade existing measures, repeatedly come from the masses, go to the masses, again from the masses, and then to the masses, which is the correct line. At a time when the epidemic prevention and control is very difficult, we should especially keep in mind this fundamental line of the Party: the mass line.
Let me just mention the relationship between the five sentences of the Party’s mass line and the current epidemic prevention and control. But I would like to add that the core connotation of the Party’s mass line also includes a premise, that is, all believe in the masses.
I have mentioned dialectical materialism in Marxist philosophy many times before, and today I want to mention another aspect of Marxist philosophy, that is, historical materialism, which together constitute Marxist philosophy. One of the questions that historical materialism should answer is who creates history. Marxism believes that the people create history, not heroes. Taking the current epidemic prevention and control as an example, although experts, leaders, medical staff and other people are particularly important and have a strong leading role, it is the masses who really decide the outcome of epidemic prevention and control.
This determines that we must rely on the masses. The premise of relying on the masses is to believe in the masses, believe that the masses have the ability to create history, and create the ability to win the epidemic prevention and control campaign.
Logically speaking, if you do not trust the masses, you will not rely on the masses. If you do not rely on the masses, it will be difficult for you to come from the masses and then to the masses, and turn the Party’s propositions into the conscious actions of the masses. If so, it is hard to believe that you are doing everything for the masses. Therefore, all trust in the masses is the premise and foundation of the mass line.
Some people feel that the masses are busy with their daily life and their level of understanding is not high. They may not be able to understand the truth they preach to the masses. In the face of this idea of looking down on the masses, I just want to ask: How will China win the war on epidemic prevention and control in 2020? Why is it that almost the whole world cannot win, and only China can win? That is, depending on the high cooperation between the Chinese people and the government, the most common phenomenon is that the people are willing to stay at home honestly. In the words of some people, the virus is also suffocated. China has the best people in the world, which is an important reason why China has become almost the only country to win the epidemic prevention and control campaign in the past two years.
Next, we need to rely on the masses in particular to win the next victory. Because after the release of our 20 articles on optimization of prevention and control, the most important thing is to have precise prevention and control. I compare it to playing seven inches. It is more necessary for the masses to cooperate when playing seven inches. For example, once a community was closed, now only one unit is closed. What if the masses of this unit do not cooperate and always sneak out? On the other hand, if the control scope is expanded and the control time is extended at will, finally, it may not be the virus but the fighting capacity of the masses.
In short, only with the cooperation of the masses can epidemic prevention and control succeed; If the masses do not cooperate, prevention and control cannot win. Do you think the masses are making history?
At the moment, I particularly feel that we need to explain thoroughly why we need dynamic zeroing, and believe that the masses have the ability to understand these principles. At the same time, people are more willing to accept these principles emotionally when they have arranged their lives well. Only when people’s lives are well arranged can they participate in the fight against the epidemic. Only in this way can we really win the epidemic prevention and control war against the COVID-19, Omikron.
The source of victory in China’s epidemic prevention and control, and the foundation of strength, must lie with the masses. As Chairman Mao said in On the Long War in May 1938, “The army and the people are the foundation of victory”.