What does it mean that the total amount of US Treasury bonds has exceeded $30trillion for the first time?

Source: Zhihu Author: Xin Xin

one

General progress of the dollar surpassing the pound

First, the economic aggregate exceeded.

National “dynamic line” of economic aggregate in recent 190 years

Since the economic data of the first 130 years were completed by hand, the entire chart is only used as a rough reference. This chart is not measured in monetary terms, but in purchasing power.

In terms of economic scale, the United States completed the anti transcendence of the British Empire in about 1870, becoming the largest single economy in the world.

However, it is only the economic aggregate surpassing.

From the perspectives of science and technology, military, currency, trade, pricing power and discourse power, the British Empire is still far ahead, and it still dominates the world in the form of “the world’s only superpower”.

At that time, the United States was still very “weak”, not only had no status in the world, but even suffered “bullying” in North and South America. Twenty five years after it became the “No. 1” in the world – around 1895, the Brazilian Argentine fleet backed by Britain also sailed to the door of the United States for free navigation and exercises.

By 1900, the Panama Canal, known as the “throat of Malacca” in the United States, was still controlled by Britain. In 1898, during the Spanish American war, Britain refused the passage of the US Navy, forcing the Pacific Fleet to go around Cape Horn in a big circle. It took 45 days to reach the battlefield.

This was the scene.

Britain and all important countries are clamoring for the coming “American Century”. Their vigilance, preparedness and containment are the same as today.

But this day will come in the long run. There is only one superpower in the world, and the main direction of geopolitics is still Germany, tsarist Russia, Austria Hungary, the Ottoman Empire in the Balkans and so on.

Brazil, as an “emerging power” benchmarked to the United States, has been praised, nurtured and placed high hopes. Today we know that Brazil is a Buddhist country. But we didn’t know at that time.

Second, the dollar exceeded.

In 1899, 30 years after the United States became the world’s largest single economy, the share of global foreign exchange reserves is as follows:

Sterling 64%, franc 16%, Deutsche mark 15%, other 6% (USD about 1.5%).

In 1913, 43 years after the United States became the world’s largest economy, the global share of foreign exchange reserves is as follows:

GBP 48%, franc 31%, Deutsche mark 15%, other 6% (USD about 2%).

As of 1913, for the United States, which had been the “No. 1 in the world” for 43 years at that time and had completed full industrialization, the goal of breaking the pound hegemony still seemed far away. With a mere 2% market share, it is not much stronger than China today.

In December, 1913, the US Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, announcing the establishment of a new financial system, opening the bond market and stock market, and centralized control of the credit market.

One year later, in November, 1914, the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, a financial institution that ruled the world for more than 100 years, was officially established.

An industrial country engaged in industry, relying on its strong industrial / trade capacity and the ability to centrally control the stock of wealth, has changed its profession to become an investment company.

all-powerful!

The following figure shows the statistical data of the United Nations in 1948, which ended in 1944.

Statistical table of global external debt (1914-1944)

In the bond market, the US dollar soared with the wings of commodities and investment, with a rocket speed of nearly 90 °.

From the infinite approach to 0% in 1914 to the completion of the US dollar anti excess in 1919, it took 5 years to become an investment tool comparable to the pound!

At this stage, the British Empire, with its huge stalls and the Empire of never setting sun, is very much like the United States today. Every hot spot is their “core interest”, and they are busy in front of and behind the stage.

It lasted for more than 40 years.

Until Ottoman Turkey, a little expert in breaking the situation, stood up again, launched the “Balkan War” in 1912, and launched the “outpost war” of World War I in 1914.

Europe collapsed in an instant, and the pound fell thousands of miles.

In 1929, the 59th year after the United States became the world’s largest single economy, the share of global foreign exchange reserves was as follows:

GBP 38%, USD 54%, Deutsche Mark + Franc + other 8%. At this time, the dollar has already formed an overwhelming advantage over the pound, and there is no possibility of turnover.

It is generally believed that the United States replaced Britain as the world’s No. 1 superpower in the Brinton forest agreement after World War II, which is probably about 15 years later than the actual situation.

In 1930, Britain was defeated in science and technology, economy, finance and military. Although they still seem to be strong and still at least control the situation of the European continent, in fact, Britain has collapsed.

Ferra couldn’t bear it.

two

Current financial position of USD

First, the US debt situation.

The national debt is 30trillion yuan.

The Federal Reserve debt is 5.9 trillion yuan.

The total debt of 51 States is 3.2 trillion yuan.

Thus, the total debt of all levels of government in the United States is about:

30+5.9+3.2=

39.1 trillion yuan.

The 590million Federal Reserve liabilities actually offset part of the federal government debt, which cannot be simply superimposed. However, the overall magnitude is too large, which does not affect the conclusion.

If it is a 10-year period with equal principal and interest, the principal of 3.9 trillion yuan per year would have been fried. Therefore, the United States pays interest first and then the principal. The 10-year period only pays interest, and the principal will be paid after 10 years (in fact, the principal will not be repaid).

Therefore, it can be seen that the nearly $15trillion increase in Government Comprehensive liabilities from 2020 to now will expire in 2030.

At that time, whether the United States supports its debt with debt, postpones its convertible bond, or announces a dollar reset, or simply does not repay it, the repayment deadline of the $15trillion debt will be there. This is a hard number in currency logic.

This may be the core problem that the $30trillion government has to face.

Second, the US central government revenue and expenditure.

Central government revenue and expenditure:

2019 Revenue: 3.4 trillion;

2020 Revenue: 3.45 trillion yuan;

In 2021, the revenue was 4.05 trillion and the cost was 6.82 trillion.

The surplus is negative 2.77 trillion.

Mandatory expenditure:

The total expenditure of the federal government in 2021 is 6.83 trillion yuan. The categories of various expenditures are as follows:

Pension: 1.6T;

Social Security Fund (unemployment + poverty + no medical insurance): 1.1 trillion;

Health care (including coping with the new crown): 796billion;

Military expenditure: 754.8 billion;

Medical insurance: 696.5 billion;

Repayment of unsecured debt and interest (credit): 352.3 billion;

Repayment of mortgage loan and interest (mortgage loan): 304.1 billion;

Education, training, employment and social services (teachers’ salaries and social operation expenditure): 296.6 billion;

Government wages and costs (including members): 269.6 billion;

Veterans’ pensions: 234.3 billion;

Transportation subsidies: 154.8 billion;

Others (information warfare + Intelligence warfare 86billion + infrastructure + miscellaneous): 271billion.

In this case, the central government’s mandatory expenditure is:

Retirement + Social Security + medical insurance + loan interest + teacher salary + government personnel salary + military pension + transportation=

$4.7386 trillion

?

In addition, military expenditure is almost a “mandatory expenditure” for the United States, which is a military industrial complex. So 47386 + 7548=

US $5.4934 trillion.

Therefore, with a revenue of 4.05 trillion yuan and a mandatory expenditure of 5.4934 trillion yuan, the United States will not only be unable to save money, but will continue to owe a lot of money, a lot of money.

They have no living expenses.

three

summary

1. Three years ago, someone asked which hell level task was difficult, that is, “de dollarization of the global anchor currency” or “de Sinicization of the global manufacturing industry chain”.

A: de dollarization is easier to operate and predictable.

2. Nibble and swallow slowly, or the winner takes all.

A: I prefer the latter. At least there are traces to follow. Touch the eagle sauce across the river – insert the wings of “product” and “financing” into the currency.

3. I don’t know why we should use the currency of the world’s second “economy” and the second “single market” as the global anchor currency. For what? For what? For what?

4. According to Article 3——

As the world’s first product exporter, the largest single market and the largest trading country, it is difficult for China to find ways to become the nominal “world’s largest economy”.

No country with a volume of more than 3trillion can continue to maintain high-speed growth. The United States will also do everything possible to contain China. For example, after Ukraine, the United States will engage in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. Their mission cost is too low, and they will win.

So we still need many nuclear bombs and ships, many ships, large ships.

5. The main difficulty faced by the United Kingdom in its containment of the United States is that the two sides are deeply bound.

Capital has no nationality.

Now, it is systematic and deep binding.

Without the support of physical product trading and bulk futures trading, the dollar can only reap itself in the black hole of the stock market on Wall Street.

6. “The dust will not run away without the broom.”

Whether it’s 30 trillion, 40 trillion, or 100 trillion.

There is no alternative monetary tool to challenge and impact, and the dollar will not end or collapse by itself. Even if all the capital knows that the US dollar is green paper and the US debt is white paper. They have no choice. The EU is too weak to count on.

Some time ago, I accidentally saw the French RTT Act (in other words, the paid leave act), which can take up to 148 days of paid leave a year.

Does this conform to the law of human development? Does this conform to the law of productivity? Why? High efficiency? superhuman powers? Advanced race? I really can’t count on it.

This is the key – the dollar won’t blow itself up!

7. Our will is not strong.

First, after the financialization, the profit-making efficiency of capital is too high, which will squeeze the development of the real economy.

Historically, China and silk have been the basic foundation of our country and the livelihood of the general public. Therefore, the priority of industrial upgrading + the Belt and Road is higher than that of financialization.

Two national policies proposed in 2013:

Made in China 2025 will improve China’s scientific and technological level and profit level, so that technology and scientists from all over the world can come to China to make money.

The Belt and Road Initiative Release the production capacity of cement, steel, roads, bridges and houses, as well as toilet paper and bicycles, so that people can have jobs.

Then the Asian investment bank. Loans to countries in need, and then they buy our infrastructure and our goods. In this way, we will dare to print money and play with financial capital.

The people at the grass-roots level have made money selling products and civil works, and the capitalists have made money investing. The poor countries have almost caught up with the white wolf with empty hands and have developed.

Everyone is happy, and mankind has a common destiny.

You see, in our side, finance serves for industrial expansion.

Of course, as we all know, after 16 years of understanding Wang came to power, he was besieged by the world. The strategic progress has been very slow. Some of the 2000 projects that have been signed have also been frozen or cancelled. Stop and fight, stop and fight.

Then the epidemic, the global recession. Crazy. In this case, the priority of financialization must be the lowest.

Second, there are ants everywhere, which will cause social problems.

I won’t go into details here.

So,

Internal circulation, common prosperity and the formation of a new operation mechanism to ensure that most people live and work in peace and contentment are given priority over financialization.

Therefore, at some moments, the state’s judgment of the situation is already very, very critical.

In addition, in order to divide and disintegrate the enemy camp, the state loosened the China EU comprehensive investment agreement (CAI). It really clenched its teeth and worked hard to cope with a very critical environment and a major change in its layout that has not been seen in a century.

Third, China’s financial industry is still in its infancy.

The obvious inflation expectations and currency risks brought about by financialization should be supported by innovative playing methods and rules, as well as an extremely large reserve of international capital operation talents.

To engage in industry, we need a large number of engineers and programmers; To engage in finance, we need a large number of financial companies to support a large number of accountants, traders and swindlers (or big Huyu). Yes, we need a lot of lawyers.

It would have been a good opportunity to push the digital currency, but we are still too weak, so the digital currency is very likely to be eaten by the US empire, and the capital transfer assignment and US dollar reset will be successfully completed. That would not be worth the loss.

We are still in the stage of real monetization.

The investment in the house was 100000 yuan per square meter. Later, it lost 50000 yuan per square meter, but the house was still there, and the food and clothing were still there.

They already have virtual assignment.

The stock price is completely divorced from the fundamentals. For example, bitcoin and metauniverse have all spent their money.

Later, Meidi said that it would pay off the debt with a $30trillion stock or a large vulture coin of a company called “big vulture international fraud bandit Technology Group”, and the debt would return to zero. Nausea and vomiting! How disgusting! Eat Shi! MLGB? Prepare for nuclear war!

In contrast, ants, financial innovation and loan sharks… What the hell is this? It’s just waiting to be fattened and harvested by the “big vulture group”.

It’s a dimensionality reduction attack. Is this the only way to bombard the national financial regulation?

Alas, I can’t say. I can’t get rid of it.

Fourth, the transition period, there is a better program transition.

In 10 years, 20 years, if the EU is still in existence, it will be the euro. If the EU is not in existence, sterling, francs, German marks and even new rubles are likely to be the options for positions. Let the European big flicker get the big vultures. Anyway, they have been fighting with the ansa people for 2000 years. They know each other well.

It doesn’t have to be RMB or Asian yuan, and the ultimate solution doesn’t have to be RMB. ASEAN + 3 (CJK) or + 4 (CJK) or + 5 (Russia) or + 6 (India) or + 6 + n (SCO, LAS).

Yayuan is actually much better and can alleviate the age structure.

In addition, the BRICs + n countries have also taken into account the idea of vertical and horizontal integration.

8. There are still many visible opportunities.

First, as of October 13, 2021, the total market value of the U.S. stock market was $50.68 trillion. Among them, the total market capitalization of listed companies owned by Nasdaq Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange and American stock exchange is US $20.92 trillion, US $29.66 trillion and US $93.1 billion respectively.

As of the same day, the total market value of the shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 76.34 trillion yuan, or about 11.28 trillion US dollars.

In addition, there are private equity funds. It is estimated that in the United States, it will be about $22trillion in December 2021. China’s private equity funds are not illegal, but are under high-pressure control, about $3trillion.

As the largest single consumer market and the largest single real economy in the world, we have credit. We still have a wave of opportunities in the bond market, stock market and private equity market. If you use it well, you can win.

Second, the US pension (pension) is the highest in the world, accounting for half of the total of the OECD (the world’s major 38 countries).

In 2027, the US pension trust fund will be exhausted; By 2030, the United States will have about 15trillion of comprehensive government debt maturing; In 2035, the US social security fund and medical insurance fund will be exhausted.

Third, by 2021, the number of private guns in the United States was 404million (280million in 2019), and the number of bullets was 6billion.

Among them, 34% of whites own guns, 28.3% of Hispanics, 25.4% of blacks and 19.4% of Asians.

Chinese Americans, about 6% of the total population, are suggested to return home within 10 years.

Fourth, there are many black swans. For example, India is benchmarked to the United States. Wrong, Brazil; There are also 666 turkeys in China, which are invincible!

Anyway, the current situation of the US empire is that it can not control the West. The stall is so big that there are many black swans.

Once it shrinks, there will be a lot of things happening in Russia, Turkey, Iran, the Arab League, Israel, India, Syria, Libya, Africa and South America.

He has printed white paper and the world is flying. Inflation is overwhelming. It has compressed the operating space of governments in various countries on financial and monetary issues. The world is poor and crazy. Public opinion is against the water, and everyone is bad.

Internal revolution + external transfer contradiction.

There are too many minefields anyway.

China is ready for internal circulation.

For eating melons, watching operas and selling daily necessities, the UAV factory can produce more than 2000 aircraft per year. Instead of printing the national standard, it can print made in Pakistan. Someone must want it. Both sides sell oil and watch belts. If reconstruction is needed, the infrastructure maniac is fast, good and cheap.

What about Meidi? How can he be a global overlord! Even if he doesn’t care, he will lose. He wants to spit out his territory and interests.

Besides, he can’t ignore it. His global structure relies too much on his support and protection. No one can fight, no one can fuck! In turn, he is too dependent on the global blood sucking model. Can he hold it?

A game in which all the heroes compete.

Last time, after the Second Boer War in 1900, honestly speaking, except for the British Empire itself (some people), all other countries – friends, enemies, or dogs – were looking forward to its death.

One operation after another.

Later, I saw that they were all bad people!

That’s it.