Source: lukewen studio (ID: lukewen1982)
The Ukrainian army’s recent counter offensive in Kharkov has recaptured more than 1000 square kilometers of land, which is completely unexpected. At this time, the Ukrainian army is still capable of launching such an offensive, while the Russian army has shown a situation of overwhelming defeat.
The current situation of the battlefield is probably like this. The Ukrainian army has taken barakeleya, ikum and the western part of kupyansk city. The forward has advanced to a place less than 10 kilometers from the border, and the dividend man in the south is also very dangerous.
This offensive, which began on September 6, has two unexpected aspects. First, the Ukrainian army has advanced at a rapid speed of 100 kilometers in four days, almost like entering a no man’s land;
Second, the Russian troops along the route were very low in resistance. They ran away when they saw the Ukrainian army. Without the cooperation of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army could not advance so fast.
The place that Russia took only a few months ago was lost in a few days. I couldn’t believe it when I read the war report. I read it repeatedly n times. Was the Russian army so defeated? Was it really so defeated.
However, the Russian army’s personnel and equipment losses were not great, not because they were well guarded, but because they ran so fast that the Ukrainian army could not catch up.
Then, why did the Russian army suffer such a big defeat?
The first reason is that the Russian troops have been said to be insufficient since the war began.
The Russian army has few regular troops in the eastern part of Kharkov. A few months ago, the Russian army in ikum did have heavy troops, but after the bonus man was laid, the Russian army in ikum group withdrew to the country one after another for rest or transferred elsewhere.
Balakeleya, the forefront, is the Western barrier of ikum, which is extremely important. It is reasonable to say that it should be heavily garrisoned. However, the reality is that Russia only has more than 1000 militia reserve troops here, not even regular militia. With two special combat units, there are few regular Russian troops in ikum, kupyansk and dividend man.
In other words, the defense of the Russian army in the eastern part of Kharkov is actually an empty shelf, with only a small number of special battles and militia reserves. Why does the Russian army not reinforce it?
Because there really aren’t many soldiers.
The Russian army has entered Ukraine for a total of more than 100000. Kherson has gone for 20000 to 30000, and the southern front has gone for the most part. There are very few troops left for Kharkov.
The Russian high-level has never wanted to mobilize, subjectively because Russia does not want to expand the situation and wants to stay at the level of “special military action” in Russia Ukraine.
However, objectively speaking, there are also many difficulties in mobilization, because mobilization needs to be linked up with the system. In the past, Russia’s military system, the first level was the regular army, the second level was the reserve, and the third level was the local staff.
As long as a war breaks out, local staff can mobilize local soldiers of appropriate age to enter the reserve service first. After a certain period of training, the reserve service is upgraded to the regular army. This system inherits from the former Soviet Union. Although it has certain drawbacks, it is still useful on the whole.
However, in 2009, the military reform carried out by Serdyukov after he took office abolished this mobilization system. The Russian army was professionalized. The advantage of professionalization is that it can cope with low-intensity wars at low costs, but the disadvantage is also obvious. It is OK for a professional army to engage in anti-terrorism, which is not suitable for real wars. This disadvantage has been verified by the US Army.
Later, the Russian army has not restored this mobilization system, which has created a difficult situation for the Russian army to mobilize. However, it is obvious that with the current battlefield situation, the 100000 professional contract soldiers alone can not cope.
The total strength of the Russian army is quite large. The establishment of the Navy and army is more than 300000, totaling about 1 million. However, there are two major problems. First, the army only has about 300000, which is obviously not enough. Moreover, most of the Russian army are conscripts, and conscripts can not go abroad to fight according to the law.
The Russian army claims that it has 400000 contract soldiers, but it is impossible to send all of them to Ukraine. At least half of them have to stay at home. 100000 will enter Ukraine, and the other 100000 will rotate.
Therefore, the theoretical maximum strength of the Russian army at present is really only 100000, which is impossible to solve Ukraine. Theoretically, the Russian army has two ways to solve it, either mobilizing or publicly investing the occupied areas in Russia, so that compulsory soldiers will not be counted as going abroad to fight.
That is why Russia is anxious to hold a referendum everywhere it goes.
The second reason is that Ukraine has the support of NATO’s intelligence system, and it has been known in advance that the defense of the Russian army in Kharkiv is empty.
Why am I sure of this?
Because the Ukrainian army has been advancing by leaps and bounds in recent days, and has hardly stopped. The most direct point is that when barakeleya meets the resistance of the Russian special combat unit, it directly bypasses the front and plunges straight into the back. Moreover, when it reaches the rear, it still flies at full speed. When it meets some Russian resistance along the way, it does not love fighting, but directly passes through.
You should know that the Ukrainian army itself dispatched more than 10000 people. If the Ukrainian army thought that there was a Russian army opposite and the Russian army would resist, it would not be possible for it to advance like this.
Obviously, it is known that there are few Russian troops here. The Russian troops are playing an empty trick in Kharkov. Although Ukraine’s intelligence system can not see it, NATO’s intelligence system is not blind.
The third reason may involve the fierce internal game between Russia and China.
The reason why the great defeat was abnormal was also reflected in the delay in the arrival of Russian reinforcements. Where the reinforcements were, like where the air and space forces were, became two unsolved mysteries in the Russian Ukrainian conflict.
There are troops of the Central Military Region in Lugansk to the south of Kharkov, as well as Russian troops on the border. The distance is not far. It is only 20 kilometers from the border to kupyansk, and it can be reached with one foot of the accelerator, but it has not come for several days. This is too abnormal.
I personally think it is more reasonable to say that the internal game in Russia is very fierce. Where is the evidence of this fierce game?
On September 3, maganov, chairman of the board of directors of Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil company, was found dead in a Moscow hospital. At present, there are two kinds of statements. The official statement is that he died of illness, and the folk statement is that he was thrown from the sixth floor window. The whole incident is confusing.
In addition to maganov, seven oligarchs have died this year, namely:
In January, Shulman, Minister of Russian gas transportation, was stabbed to death at his home in St. Petersburg;
In February, churakov, deputy director of Russia gas settlement center, hanged himself at his home in St. Petersburg;
In April, ivaev, former vice president of Gazprom, killed his wife and children at home in Moscow and then committed suicide;
Protosheny, former chairman of novatek, the largest private natural gas company in Russia, died in a villa in Spain with an unknown cause of death;
In May, Alexander sabotan, a member of Lukoil’s board of directors, was found dead in a basement because of “heart failure”;
In June, ogalev, former president of Ural energy company, died in a mansion in Moscow. The cause of death is also unknown.
In July, Yuri Voronov, a contractor of Gazprom’s Arctic project, was found dead in the swimming pool of his mansion in St. Petersburg because he was shot in the head;
The deaths of so many oligarchs fully illustrate one point: Russia’s internal struggle has reached the level of white heat of life and death. It cannot be ruled out that the struggle has spread to the army, so that there is a strange phenomenon that reinforcement has not been delivered.
The fourth reason is that the tactics of the Ukrainian army this time were really good.
The tactics of the Ukrainian army this time is to first send a wave with the territorial defense brigade, and then crack through with pickup trucks and armored vehicles. The Russian army was a little scared by this battle, and the Ukrainian army bypassed the nail and moved quickly to the rear. For example, when the Ukrainian army attacked balakleya, the local militia reserves and special police actually resisted.
However, the Ukrainian army did not choose to be rigid in the front, but bypassed from the north and south sides and went straight into the rear. This tactic obviously confused the defenders. In addition, strategically, the Ukrainian army’s offensive momentum in Kherson was very strong, which restrained a large number of Russian troops. Although the Ukrainian army lost a lot in Kherson, it did succeed in paralyzing the Russian army, so that the Russian army did not expect that the Ukrainian army would come to Kharkov.
Politically, the impact of this big defeat was extremely bad. The German Foreign Minister immediately announced that he would continue to provide assistance to Ukraine, which showed his confidence. If Russia continues to collapse on the battlefield, even if the EU is completely cut off, the EU will still persist in wasting with Russia.
Secondly, from the perspective of the people’s feelings, the performance of the Russian army this time is bound to seriously undermine its public opinion in Kharkov. Kharkov was originally a pro Russian region. After the Crimea incident 14 years ago, it revolted together with Luton, but the Russian army did not enter Kharkov at that time, resulting in the isolation of the pro Russian armed forces in Kharkov and heavy losses. Many people think that they have been sold by the Russian army.
Therefore, eight years later, when the Russian army entered Kharkov again, the pro Russian public opinion had been greatly reduced. Even if they were pro Russian in heart, they would not dare to express their attitude easily. This time, the Russian army was defeated in this way, and the Ukrainian army would certainly attack the pro Russian forces after returning, which was tantamount to selling the pro Russian crowd again. If the Russian Army wanted to enter Kharkov again, I am afraid there would be no public opinion support.
They have been sold twice in a row, and even Pro Russian people will despair.
For Russia, the impact of this fiasco will also be very far-reaching. In the past, the Russian regime led by Putin was unwilling to use Imperial Russia for so many years. Instead, it pulled and defended Imperial Russia, used them when needed, and immediately threw them aside when it ran out.
As early as eight years ago, the Imperial Russia faction demanded to be tough on Ukraine, but the official ignored it. After this disastrous defeat, Russian public opinion has been scolded. Imperial Russia is bound to gain further power and Westernizers will lose further power.
Finally, we have to say that this big defeat has become a fact. We hope that the Russian army will treat it objectively and sum up its experience and lessons. If it still holds the illusion that “100000 contract troops can easily defeat Ukraine”, then this big defeat will be inevitable in the future.