Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
On the 30th, our a Baijiu sector rose sharply, and made a lively rebound with the index. Unfortunately, this wave of mainstream hot plates are stalling and shipping, and it is only Baijiu that drives the index.
This is a bit of an index shipment.
I have always stressed that now the market in the United States is unstable, and there may be moths every minute. This wave of people has returned blood richly. Of course, these people have to settle down first. Their escape means that the market is about to have twists and turns.
My a’s chickens and dogs are usually financial kneeling people, looking at the United States every day to give signals.
The United States revised its GDP data for the first quarter:
The US GDP in the first quarter was revised down to -1.6%, and the real-time GDP forecast in the second quarter =0%; The slowest retail growth and inventory surge since the first quarter of 2009;
Retail giants are trying to inventory. The supply chain problems caused by the epidemic in those years led dealers to place orders in panic. Once the global supply chain became normal, those extra orders began to bite back.
When people place orders in a hurry, the surge in short-term orders will inevitably lead to overheated demand for commodities. Coupled with the overprinted US dollar, a wave of bull market in bulk commodities is vigorous.
I have always said that copper is the best indicator for bulk.
In fact, copper has been hovering at a high level since it soared in May last year, and its failure to rise has actually explained the problem, because at that time, international funds were unprecedented abundant, and the demand foam that was blown out on the surface was also unprecedented.
But why can’t copper rise? Real needs tell everything.
At the beginning of this month, I wrote an article “the bull market in commodities has peaked”. At that time, many people didn’t think so. There were also smart readers who changed hands to short copper futures and made a lot of money.
Recent news about retail in the United States is that major retailers are trying to inventory.
The head enterprises of domestic cross-border e-commerce have also had a hard time recently.
Inflation has made Americans who are used to extravagance begin to reduce all kinds of expenses, which is right with the sharp decline of consumer confidence index.
Consumption accounts for more than 70% of the U.S. GDP, which is similar to the previous one. The next revision of the U.S. GDP data for the first quarter is right.
Now the logic is very clear. The soaring prices in the United States are not caused by too good consumption. On the contrary, various data have spread that American consumption is facing a collapse, which may lead to another supply chain crisis in the world. That is to say, the productivity driven by the pseudo demand in the United States will now be restored to its original form, which will make a large number of assets invested in the production side face excess, form a large number of inventories, and finally force out the debt problem.
Recently, I have been paying close attention to the situation in Vietnam. The whole network has been saying that Vietnam is going to copy our foreign trade export home. But the latest news is that Vietnam’s exports have also begun to decline recently, and Vietnam’s foreign debt crisis in the whole economy has begun to show signs because of the blind expansion of dollar debt.
Looking at the recent trend of crude oil, after a few days of decline, there is still a wave of rise. In addition, in the G7 summit, the Middle East has stated that it is unlikely to increase production, that is, the international oil price is unlikely to be hit down, and the domestic strategic oil reserve of the United States has reached a 40 year low.
In other words, relying on oil prices, the Federal Reserve is likely to directly raise interest rates by 0.75% in July.
A fan in the real estate business in the United States told me that second-hand buildings in the United States have begun to fail to sell now because mortgage interest rates have soared too much.
It’s not necessary for Wall Street tycoons like Mu Jie to come out and shout about the recession. On the other side of the earth, from all kinds of information released by the United States, we can clearly feel that a wave of crisis is imminent.
Whether it’s the Federal Reserve or the president of the United States, it’s evil to run like this to the pole and crazy stab the big foam of the U.S. economy without even giving a buffer?
Interestingly, the Federal Reserve is very busy raising interest rates now, but it is not in a hurry to shrink its balance sheet. In June, its balance sheet increased by another $180billion. Think about it with your toes. This is probably because the market is selling U.S. debt madly, forcing the Federal Reserve to jump out and be the successor.
In the final analysis, someone has to pay for the huge government expenditure in the United States. Everyone is busy running away. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t buy it, who can send money to the Ministry of finance?
However, at such a time of lack of money, the G7 is shouting loudly that it will take us $600billion to help poor countries in construction. Isn’t this evil?
In 2021, these people also took a plan called “rebuilding a better world” (b3w), which claimed to improve the infrastructure of developing countries by $40 trillion. However, since its launch, it has been little known and there has been little substantive progress.
If it’s just for boasting, why did it become $600billion this time? It also lists the specific division of funds.
So last year’s $400000 billion is fake, and this year’s $600billion is really possible, but you can’t expect this money to be used to build infrastructure for poor countries. May I ask the noble people of G7, who will go to the construction site to get ash? Everyone’s own infrastructure has been very weak, and they have no money to repair for a long time.
If we put it another way, when the United States sacrificed the great law of the disintegration of the demons, took the lead in breaking its own asset foam, and accurately exported the global financial crisis, then who will be the most affected?
Of course, it is those economies where the external debt crisis has begun.
The reputation of the IMF has long been bad. Some of the rescued people have been fooled, and it has been made clear that we are no longer fooled.
Is it possible that this $600billion is the bottom money they are preparing for the next economic crisis?
The United States emperor coaxed the younger brothers to suffer countless losses every day. If they only suffered losses, who would be willing to come and be younger brothers? Always give the old irons some benefits.
The advantage of this wave is to participate in the bargain hunting operation after the US emperor smashed the market, and even the size of each company is divided. The United States takes the lead, and neon country can follow suit.
The Fed’s so-called false scale reduction or true and false is difficult to distinguish. People have prepared the bottom reading money in advance.
This wave of leeks that are most likely to be cut are Southeast Asia and South America. Who makes them have oil and water to squeeze?
Of course, I’m just guessing. This very strange aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is definitely not a normal means of financial regulation, and it can’t be used to smash the market.
But smashing the plate is more likely to become smashing the pot. How many times can a divided United States withstand tossing?