Author: top ten sources: flower planting city (ID: hqsycn)
According to the report of Russian satellite news agency on the 25th, Putin signed an order on the 25th to expand 137000 troops, and the total number of Russian troops will reach 1150628.
This is a relatively large event, which has attracted the attention of all parties in the world.
What is the signal of Russia’s sudden large-scale military expansion?
The author thinks that there are four points as follows:
1. The war between Russia and Ukraine is likely to be protracted
The war between Russia and Ukraine is not only a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but also a contest between Russia and the whole west. To put it more broadly, it is a PK between the third world and the West. Behind Ukraine is the whole west, and the third world supports Russia more.
So far, the war originally planned to be fought for only two weeks has been fought for more than six months.
Moreover, the west, Russia and Ukraine have no intention to stop.
The United States does not care who wins or loses between Ukraine and Russia. What it wants is to turn Ukraine into the second Iraq or Afghanistan, and let Russia fall into a long-term war to consume and kill Russia. It is best to make it never recover.
To this end, on the day of Ukraine’s independence, the United States announced that it would provide $3 billion in military assistance to Ukraine; Russia’s “viewpoint” reported on the 26th that the United States is planning to send a “commander in chief of war” to Ukraine. Its responsibilities include directly leading the armed forces and military operations of Ukraine and coordinating the actions of NATO allies.
Russia also seems to be killing red eyes. Recently, Mei’s brother-in-law (Medvedev) stated that Russia’s price has been raised. Even if Ukraine gives up joining NATO, Russia will not stop.
As for Ukraine, it has the actual need to recover eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and is willing to become the puppet of the Western proxy war, and is not anxious to end the war.
Therefore, it is very likely that Russia has judged that the war between Russia and Ukraine will be protracted, thus expanding its military.
2. Russia’s external threat is increasing
As mentioned above, the Western encirclement and suppression of Russia is strengthening, which means that Russia’s external threat is increasing, which also requires Russia to increase its armed forces to defend itself.
In addition to the Western strengthening of the intensity and intensity of the Ukrainian proxy war, the surrounding environment of Russia is also deteriorating. The typical phenomenon is Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Once successful, the harm will be much greater than Ukraine joining NATO; There are also countries along the Baltic Sea that are trying to block Russia’s sea ports. All these will do great harm to Russia, and Russia will certainly not sit idly by.
Just because Russia’s external threat is increasing, some Russian experts said that this round of military expansion will not be the last one, even if Russia expands its active military to 1.5 million in the future, it is reasonable.
3. Replenish strength and greater attack
In the long-standing war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia must have lost.
According to the media reports of the associated press, the Pentagon estimates that Russia will lose about 70000 or 80000 military personnel. It is not known whether this figure is true or not, but Russia will definitely be injured. Besides its strong nuclear power, Russia’s conventional military strength is not outstanding.
In addition, a long-term war is not good for Russia. Russia had better kill chickens with an ox knife and increase its attack to quickly end the war.
Therefore, Russia has also expanded its military to a certain extent, not excluding the need to replenish its strength and increase its offensive.
? video screenshot of Russian Army
4. Russia’s wait-and-see failed to materialize
Why has Russia always used a blunt knife to cut the flesh of Ukraine, so that the war is not heated?
There may be many reasons for correct explanation. For example, Russia does not want to act too much, so as not to cause excessive fear in the West and increase the difficulty of its own war. For the time being, this kind of righteous explanation will be ignored.
Here is a little guess
Will it be that Russia is watching the Sino US dispute? Once China and the United States get involved in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other places, the confrontation between Russia and the United States will immediately become a secondary contradiction
Yes, at this time Russia will win. In order to concentrate on China, the United States has to put aside Russia for the time being and even win over Russia. At this time, Russia will be able to easily deal with Ukraine and even offer the United States a price that is greatly beneficial to itself.
However, China has shown strong strength, strong strategic determination and superb wisdom in the Taiwan Strait and other directions. Instead of falling into the trap preset by the United States, China has constantly turned the crisis into an opportunity and reaped great benefits step by step.
The big bear who failed in the above calculations had no choice but to make further plans. Army expansion is one of the actions under this “plan”.
Finally, I would like to explain that among the above four points, the first and second points should be the main factors, and the latter two points are secondary. In particular, the fourth point is only the author’s personal conjecture (many readers may have thought of it), which should be used as reference.
The West has made the world order itself, but with the rise of emerging countries, the west is destroying the rules it has made. The changes in the situation over the past century have made more and more people feel “cold winter” and “the wind is coming and the building is full of rain”. This round of Russian army expansion has added a layer of chill to this feeling.