Author: Li guangman source: Li guangman freezing point review wechat official account id:ligm-479210127 has been reprinted with authorization
1? Biden showed muscle weakness in the Middle East.
Biden’s recent visit to the Middle East is a very interesting topic. Through this visit, the world has seen that the United States has a sense of weakness towards the Middle East, a helplessness of “boundless leaves rustling”, and no country is listening to what the United States says.
For example, Biden said, “we will not leave, leaving a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran.” But what happened? Just like Biden once reached out to shake hands with people, but there was nothing opposite him. Maybe he was shaking hands with some ghost. Now, too, Biden’s call to build a “NATO in the Middle East” seems to be speaking to the air, without any response.
When Biden mentioned that Saudi Arabia was responsible for the death of kasuji, Saudi Arabia responded mercilessly: the U.S. military sexually assaulted and abused prisoners in Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, and mentioned the murder of Palestinian American journalist hilin Abu aklih in the occupied West Bank in May. Will Saudi Arabia’s answer embarrass Biden?
In the dialogue on values, Saudi Arabia taught Biden a lesson: “trying to impose your values on others will not be effective, which will lead to negative reactions. To publicize your values, the right way is to prove to the world that you first adhere to these values and respect your values.” “In the end, you can’t impose your own values by force. We have our own values. These values can’t be 100% consistent with the values of the United States, because we are very proud of our traditions, values and beliefs.”
As for Biden’s main purpose of asking Saudi Arabia to increase oil production during his visit, Saudi Arabia also gently drifted past as if it hadn’t heard it: our production capacity has reached the limit, with an increase of 1million barrels at most, and we have to wait until next year or the next year, which is simply more Taiji than the Chinese people.
We should know that the Middle East is the support of petrodollar hegemony and the impregnable sphere of influence of the United States. Whoever dares to say no will be attacked by the United States militarily, or the regime will be overthrown by the United States, or the leader will be assassinated by the United States. The United States is undoubtedly the uncrowned king of the Middle East, that is to say, the one and only tyrant. Biden’s trip to the Middle East this time is just adding laughter, and even Israel has not left Biden face, The day after Biden visited Palestine, Israel launched air strikes on Palestine.
The Middle East seems to be becoming a wound for the United States. Especially when Putin visited Iran the next day, the world forgot that Biden had visited the Middle East, and only the United States is licking the wound.
2? China’s holdings of US Treasury bonds fell below $1trillion.
The latest international capital flow report released by the U.S. Treasury Department on July 18 showed that the release of the data was delayed by two months. As the main overseas buyers of U.S. debt, central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world sold $34.1 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in May, breaking the largest single month selling scale since the outbreak of the COVID-19 in the United States in March this year.
U.S. Treasury bonds are losing their appeal. More and more sovereign countries are selling U.S. Treasury bonds. China, Japan, Luxembourg, Ireland, Brazil, Canada, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Norway, Germany, Australia, Israel, the Philippines, Thailand, Sweden, Italy, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates, Poland, Colombia and other at least 21 countries collectively sold U.S. Treasury bonds in May.
Japan’s selling is quite eye-catching. Since March this year, Japan has sold US treasuries of US $93.5 billion for three consecutive months. A US financial website said that with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Japan was contributing to the historic collapse of US debt.
One of the biggest concerns in the data released this time is that China sold us treasury bonds of US $22.6 billion in May, reducing China’s holdings of US Treasury bonds to less than US $1trillion for the first time since June 2010, to US $980.8 billion.
Since December 2021, China has sold us bonds for six consecutive months. The scale of the sales was $12.1 billion in December 2021, $8.6 billion in January this year, $5.3 billion in February, $15.2 billion in March, $36.2 billion in April and $22.6 billion in May. The cumulative sales of U.S. Treasury bonds reached $100billion for six consecutive months.
In November 2013, China held a total of $1.3167 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds. By May this year, China held $98.8 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. In the past nine years, China not only did not increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, but also sold a total of $335.9 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, with a cumulative selling ratio of 26%.
There are many places worth tasting here. This event marks that China is steadily promoting de dollarization, gradually getting rid of its dependence on the dollar, and gradually getting rid of the cycle of exchanging low-cost industrial products for dollars, and then using dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, which works for the United States and ends up with a pile of U.S. Treasury bonds.
3? The BRICs organization expanded its membership.
Recently, one of the more interesting news is that the BRICs countries are preparing to expand their membership. In the joint declaration issued after the 14th BRICs leaders’ meeting held from June 23 to 24, it was proposed that “We support promoting the process of BRICs membership expansion through discussion”. Subsequently, Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt successively applied to join the BRICs organization. Among the five countries, the review may be conducted in two batches. The first batch may be Argentina and Iran.
This is a very meaningful event. As we all know, the group of seven is an organization of seven major developed countries in the West. It has a decisive influence in the global economy, politics and trade. It is the base camp for the Western powers to implement their colonial trade, economic and political policies. With the rise of global emerging economies and the relative decline of western developed countries, the group of seven has no longer had a dominant position in the global economic pattern, and its decisions no longer have decisive influence. Some people say that the group of seven has become a rich country club or tea party.
Since 2009, the United States has had to form countries including emerging economies to form the G20. Due to the comprehensive sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia after the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war and the United States’ view of China as its main strategic competitor, the G20 is facing serious division, and the developed countries and emerging economies seem to be facing separation. At this time, The BRICs organization, which is composed of major emerging countries, has begun to expand its membership.
The decline of the group of seven and the expansion of the BRICs organization, one decline and one prosperity, can make us feel that some irreversible changes are taking place in the current international pattern. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Argentina, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, including the major developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, will be joined by more countries in the future, such as Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan and other countries, whose total GDP will increase year by year. With the passage of time, the economic aggregate of the BRICs countries and countries ready to join will be able to compete with that of the group of seven, In this way, the majority of developing countries will have an important influence and voice in the formulation of global political order and trade policy rules, and will gradually get rid of the colonization, slavery and plunder of western countries.
This may be the invisible but the backbone force in today’s world pattern change, and China will become the leading force.
4? Global currency uprising.
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia was subjected to all-round sanctions and blockades from the western world, the most severe of which was that the United States and the West kicked Russia out of the swift system, frozen Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, and prohibited Russian financial institutions from trading in dollars and euros. The ruble plummeted, down more than 50%.
Where there is oppression, there is resistance. On March 23, Putin announced that Russia would use ruble for settlement when supplying natural gas to unfriendly countries and regions, that is, the “ruble settlement order”, which fired the first shot of the currency uprising. Since then, the United States and Europe had to accept Russia’s request to use the ruble to settle oil and gas, and the ruble began to rebound sharply, rebounding as high as 200% from the lowest point, even exceeding the high point of the ruble exchange rate before the sanctions.
On June 22, Putin said in a video speech at the opening ceremony of the BRICs business forum, “we are working with BRICs partners to develop a reliable alternative mechanism for international settlement. Russia’s financial information transmission system has been opened to BRICs banks. Russia’s Mir payment system is expanding its existence. We are studying the possibility of establishing an international reserve currency based on a basket of BRICs currencies.” Putin said that the BRICs countries have a population of more than 3 billion, accounting for a quarter of the world’s GDP, 20% of the world’s trade and 25% of global direct investment. The total international reserves of the BRICs countries account for about 35% of the global reserves.
After that, China began to follow up. On June 20, the people’s Bank of China issued the notice on supporting cross-border RMB settlement of new forms of foreign trade, which was officially implemented on July 1. This is the “RMB settlement order” launched by China after Russia implemented the “ruble settlement order”. Although this settlement order is not as mandatory as the “ruble settlement order”, it must also be a bullet fired against the hegemony of the US dollar.
On July 11, the Indian government announced that the rupee settlement mechanism for international trade, the “rupee settlement order”, would be officially launched from that day. The mechanism stipulates that Indian Importers need to pay in rupees according to the goods or services supply invoices of overseas sellers, and Indian exporters also need to obtain export income in rupees from the special account designated by the agent bank of the partner country. The rupee price adopted by both parties is determined by the international offshore exchange rate. Simply put, when other countries buy Indian goods, they should first exchange foreign exchange for rupees, and when India buys goods from other countries, the other party also needs to accept rupee transactions. Since India’s implementation of the “rupee settlement order” is too rough and India does not have the same hard currency as Russia’s oil, gas and grain, the rupee exchange rate fell instead of rising after the “rupee settlement order” was issued. I think as India has a huge market, as long as the “rupee settlement order” can be adhered to, countries will inevitably be forced to choose the Indian Rupee for trade settlement with India.
On June 29, when India’s largest cement producer, chaoke cement, imported a batch of 157000 tons of coal from Russia, it used RMB for payment, and the estimated value of the goods was about 170million yuan. Due to the sanctions of the United States, the trade between Russia and India cannot be settled in dollars or euros, and the use of RMB for settlement may become a trend in the future, and it will be popular in more countries trading with Russia.
On July 13, BHP Billiton, an Australian iron ore company, said in a statement that the Victoria, loaded with iron ore from a mine in Western Australia, arrived at Rizhao Port, China, which was the first batch of spot iron ore trade settled in RMB in Australia to arrive in China. In recent years, Australia has been following the United States to strongly oppose China, and the trade between China and Australia has been seriously affected, and the trade volume between the two countries has decreased significantly. Now BHP Billiton has given up the settlement in US dollars and settled the iron ore trade with China in RMB, obviously considering the risk factors of US dollars and the influence of China, it also shows that the pricing power of iron ore is constantly approaching the RMB.
From the above news, it seems that we can see that the hegemony of the US dollar begins to waver, and we can even hear its rattling sound.
5? Latin America began to turn left.
On June 19, the dust settled in Colombia’s quadrennial presidential election, and Gustavo petro, a former guerrilla candidate from the left-wing election coalition “Columbia historical convention alliance”, became Colombia’s president. Colombia has always been the most loyal follower of the United States in Latin America. For more than 200 years since the founding of the people’s Republic of China, the pro american right wing has been in power, and petro broke this tradition and became the first left-wing president of Colombia. Some analysts believe that this historic change will bring a “new atmosphere” to this long-term right-wing Latin American country, and is expected to further accelerate the political process of “left-wing rise” in Latin America.
In recent years, in Latin America, in addition to traditional anti American countries such as Cuba and Venezuela, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Honduras and other countries have successively ushered in the governance of left-wing governments. Petro’s victory in the Colombian election is regarded as breaking through the “last bastion” of regional conservative forces, which can be called a turning point in contemporary Latin American politics. At the end of this year, Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, will hold a general election. The poll of former left-wing President Lula is significantly ahead of the current president bosonaro. If Lula is successfully elected, all the top seven economies in Latin America are expected to “turn left”, and a new left-wing political ecosystem in Latin America that pays more attention to social livelihood, fairness and justice, unity and self-improvement begins to accelerate.
From June 8 to 10, 2022, the ninth summit of the Americas was held in Los Angeles, the United States. This summit of the Americas held in the United States should have shown the great influence and dominance of the United States in American countries, but this summit turned into a summit of the division of the Americas. Because the United States did not invite the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to participate in the summit, it was widely resisted by Latin American countries, Among the 35 American countries, only 23 countries’ leaders attended, especially Mexican President Lopez, who refused to attend, and Argentine President Fernandez agreed to attend after the United States repeatedly worked. However, Fernandez said that his presence was just to bring the views of uninvited countries to the summit, and he also publicly criticized at the summit, “The silence of the absentees is calling on us to hold a different summit of the Americas.”
The feeling of this summit, like the invitation of the United States to ASEAN countries to hold a summit in the United States and Biden’s recent visit to the Middle East, shows that the influence of the United States is declining significantly, and Monroe Doctrine seems to be going bankrupt.
ASEAN, the Middle East, and even Latin America, which Americans call their own “backyard”, are also showing estrangement, and no one will listen to the United States.
6? Europe is falling.
From June 26 to 28, the G7 summit was held in Bavaria, Germany. From June 29 to 30, the NATO summit opened in Madrid, the capital of Spain. These two summits seem to have been very lively, but they ended only a few days later. Who still remembers these two summits?
This is the state of Europe today. In recent days, everyone has been talking about the fact that the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar fell to 1:1 parity. The Kosovo war in 1999 knocked down the newly born euro, and this time the Russian Ukrainian war knocked down the euro again. Some people say that Ukraine is the first to be hurt by the Russia Ukraine war, and Europe is the second. Now when we look at Europe, we seem to hear a howl. The oil and gas crisis, the food crisis, and serious inflation. Germany, France and other traditional manufacturing countries have trade deficits. The United States is harvesting the world. It gives people the feeling that the first harvest is Europe and Japan, the close allies of the United States, Moreover, Europe and Japan, these allies, have also been harvested happily, looking like they are enjoying it very much.
Looking at Europe being sold by the United States and counting the money for the United States, we can predict that Europe will further decline and split in the future. Because Europe has a tradition of war, it will be a high probability event to break out war again on this continent. For 500 years, they have been gaining wealth and happiness by invading, enslaving, slaughtering and plundering other countries. In the future, they may struggle in the quagmire of war and decline.
7? What does this series show?
Recently, the trade deficit data of a group of traditional industrial countries in May this year has aroused widespread concern. Germany has a deficit of 1.04 billion US dollars, which is the first deficit since 1991. France has a deficit of 11.5 billion euros, a record high. Britain has a deficit of 8.5 billion pounds, Italy has a deficit of 3.6 billion euros, Spain has a deficit of 6.4 billion euros, the United States has a deficit of 104.3 billion US dollars, Japan has a deficit of 17.8 billion US dollars, and South Korea has a deficit of 2.47 billion US dollars. India, a developing country with non-traditional industries, has a deficit of US $24billion, a record high, and Vietnam also has a deficit of US $1.73 billion.
The reasons here are not only the Russian Ukrainian war and the sharp rise in global commodity prices, such as the trade surplus of resource exporting countries – oil producing countries in the Middle East, Russia, Australia, Canada and Brazil, but also deeper reasons.
Of course, one country is an exception, that is, China, which is not a big country in resources, but a big country in manufacturing. That is, in May this year, there was US $78.76 billion, and China’s import and export surplus in the first half of the year was as high as 2.48 trillion yuan, nearly US $400billion, indicating that although China’s economy has also been affected due to the effective control of the epidemic in China and the strong manufacturing industry in China, However, compared with other countries, it is unique, and the scenery here is unique. Industrial products made in China have become a global hard currency.
Let’s look at another set of data, which is the development of new energy vehicles in the world. According to the recently announced global sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year, China’s BYD sold 641000 new energy vehicles in the first half of this year, with a year-on-year increase of more than 300%. Tesla, which has always been the leader in the global sales list of new energy vehicles, sold 564000 vehicles in the first half of this year, while BYD surpassed Tesla by 13.7%.
In addition to BYD, China’s rise in the field of new energy vehicles is comprehensive. Not only the whole vehicle is in the leading position in the world, but also in the battery field. In 2021, with the global auto sales shrinking, the cumulative sales of passenger cars in China reached 2014.6 million, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.989 million, with a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. Compared with 2020, the total sales of passenger vehicles in 2021 increased by 860000, and the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.879 million.
Among the top 20 global new energy brand sales list in 2021, there are 8 Chinese brands, 4 German brands, 3 European brands, 2 American brands, 2 Korean brands and 1 Japanese brand. In terms of output, China’s eight major brands accounted for 28.23% of the total global sales of new energy vehicles in 2021. China has supported half of the world’s new energy vehicles except Tesla, far exceeding the traditional car companies represented by Germany and Japan.
Automobile is the economic pillar of Japan and Germany, and it is also an important embodiment of the manufacturing industry in the United States. With the rise of China’s new energy vehicles, we seem to see that China is repeating the story that has happened in the fields of household appliances, photovoltaic industry, wind power, power grid, nuclear power, high-speed rail and so on. For example, if China’s new energy vehicles once again overwhelm the dominance of western traditional industrial countries in the automotive field for nearly a century with an unstoppable momentum, So we don’t know what industry Japan will build its country with? What else is Europe’s pillar industry?
At present, we are experiencing a great change that has not been seen in a century. In this change, there are not only the collapse of the global hegemony of the United States, but also the slow decline of old colonists such as Europe, as well as the sudden rise of emerging economies and developing countries and breakthroughs in resistance. With this change, there will be both bloody wars and breakthroughs in industrial fields, such as the COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine, The life and death competition between China and the United States will be an important historical period, which is more likely to be the darkest moment before dawn.
North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and Iran, which have been sanctioned, blockaded and attacked by the United States for a long time, are worthy of respect. They are heroic countries that dare to fight under the colonial hegemony of the United States and the West. Russia is worthy of respect. They are fighting both a military war and a currency war with the United States and the West.
Cuba has been blockaded by the United States for more than half a century, and they are still insisting, as are North Korea, Venezuela and Iran. Now we can see that Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries have begun to treat the United States coldly and angrily, more Latin American countries have also begun to wake up, and the United States is becoming increasingly crazy, weaker and abandoned by everyone.
China is fighting against the United States and the West in an all-round way. The success or failure of the war between China and the United States is not only related to China, but also related to the whole world. China is the backbone of the world’s people against the hegemony of the United States and the West. If China fails or surrenders, the world will sink into darkness again, without any light and hope, and mankind will continue to be ruled and enslaved by the United States and the West for hundreds of years.
China must be the most stable and powerful leading force and the hope of all the protesters. China must and will show the great wisdom and strength of the Chinese nation, unite all the countries in the world that are colonized, plundered and exploited by the United States and the west, break the shackles, break the old order, and establish a more equal and fairer new world order. China, come on!