When I stopped lending, I suddenly felt that the world was wide!

Original: duanhongbin source: official account: laoduan’s point of view

Old readers know that since last year, I have been telling you like chanting scriptures that real estate is the pillar industry of China’s economy. If this collapses, China’s economy will be over. Therefore, if we crack down on real estate like last year, something big will happen.

My original words at that time were:

The only reason why house prices will always rise is that China’s economy has been developing at a high speed. When China’s economy declines sharply, house prices will definitely fall sharply, but we can’t afford the cost of a sharp economic decline, so we can only tolerate the rise in house prices. In the past, house prices have been rising, so everyone thinks that there are too many disadvantages of soaring house prices, which is simply unbearable. But this is because you haven’t experienced a fall in house prices. When house prices fall sharply, you will find that you are more miserable. The lesser of the two evils is the moderate rise in house prices.

Now the situation is that house prices have not fallen much, and developers have been one step ahead to lie flat. The current situation is shown in the following picture:

In my opinion, the relationship between developers and local governments is the relationship between licking dogs and goddesses.

In the past, no matter how the goddess abused the licking dog, the love of licking dog was always the same. No matter how abused, licking dog was never abandoned. For example, no matter how painful it is to open the developer, as long as the land is sold, the developer will rob it and rob several land kings at any time.

Over time, due to the practice of licking the dog, the goddess had an illusion that as long as there was no money, licking the dog would surely give money, as if licking the dog would always be obedient and lick around. But, time will change everything. When you really beat the licking dog to death, the licking dog will be cold sooner or later.

A series of policies last year really killed the licking dog, but the dog is only a dog after all, and he has no ability to resist, but it is always possible for him to lie flat, and nonviolent non cooperation is always allowed, so he just lay on the ground and pretended to be dead.

The performance of developers lying flat is very simple. First, they have no money to get the land, second, they have no money to construct, third, they have made a large number of layoffs, and finally they lie on the ground, asking for money or not. If they are cheap, you can hit me.

Now the goddess really panicked. This situation is described by an idiom, which is “licking the dog out of control”. Once the dog doesn’t want to lick again, the goddess has nothing to do with him.

The developers’ lying down behavior directly inspired many housing slaves. You know, the house slave has to repay the loan every month since he signed the house purchase contract, but now the house is in bad condition, and there is no time to start construction, but his loan has to be deducted every month. You are not willing to change you.

For example, if you buy a pre-sale product with Huabai on Taobao, but the product is not produced in the end, in other words, the pre-sale fails, so you don’t have to spend anymore, because the transaction is not completed. But the same logic is wrong when it comes to the real estate market. The house is in bad condition, but your loan needs to be repaid every month, which is equivalent to that all the risks are borne by the people.

Originally, people didn’t dare not repay the loan because they were afraid of something called “credit investigation”, but many people have no money to eat since the epidemic closed the city. In this case, what is “credit investigation” and can it eat? You must understand that barefoot people are not afraid of wearing shoes. Before, this man was a shoemaker. If you tell him the truth, he will listen to you, because the shoemaker needs to maintain dignity, but now he is barefoot, and he is completely immune to your sutras. You can’t fool him.

For example, if you scare him and say: there is a problem with credit investigation, the mortgage will not be issued to you in the future.

He said: I will never borrow money to buy a house in my life. Do you think I will be afraid of you?

Besides, he is not ready to repay the mortgage. As long as the house resumes work and the real estate certificate is handled, he will continue to repay the loan. But now something happened. He found that he had taken all the risks. The government took the land transfer fee and the bank took the interest. The developer was dead, and he had to pay for the mess. Why did you embarrass him?

We know that novel coronavirus will not spread through the network, but the financial virus will certainly spread through the network, and the transmission speed is very fast. The day before yesterday, I saw on the Internet that 35 projects across the country have stopped lending. Yesterday, it has become 53 projects, today it has exceeded 100 projects, and tomorrow it will become 200 projects. Don’t be surprised. This transmission rate is far faster than that of novel coronavirus.

The stop loan notice of a real estate in Zhengzhou is well written. Let me copy a few paragraphs for you:

This is the helpless cry of the people. When they are in despair, the credit investigation is just a paper tiger.

Now the most serious situation is Zhengzhou, Changsha and Kunming, of which the uncompleted rate in Zhengzhou has reached 28%. About every three suites sold, one cannot be delivered on time!

Many people feel strange that last year was really a big hit on real estate, but so many rescue policies have been introduced across the country this year. The minimum mortgage interest rate has been reduced to 4.25%, and the average lending cycle has been reduced from two months to half a month. Why can’t real estate be saved?

In my opinion, the reason is very simple. A series of operations from last year to this year have completely changed people’s expectations for the future. In the past, he really believed that his income would be higher and higher in the future, and his life would be better and better. But now, he hesitated about this, so he would rather increase his savings than invest again, and even his consumption could be simplified. In other words, he has begun to prepare for the coming great recession. If everyone is prepared for the recession, the recession will surely come.

In addition, you see so many auction houses are unfinished, does he dare to buy auction houses? How can he ensure that his house does not fall into disrepair? He can’t guarantee, so reason tells him that he can’t buy a house for the time being.

In addition, there is a small detail. We know that migrant workers working on the construction site often worry about asking for pay, and they can’t get paid for their work. This year, migrant workers’ brothers also realized that since they are worried about not getting paid for their work, don’t I worry if I don’t work? Therefore, migrant workers collectively ask for daily payment and can’t get the wages of the previous day. I’ll lie down and play with my mobile phone today, and I don’t want to maliciously ask for salary anymore. Anyway, I won’t work. You see, even migrant workers believe that you are bound to owe wages.

The current situation is really critical. In an deleted article, I said that if the real estate industry is finished, a large number of local banks in China are bound to go bankrupt. Because now there are no private enterprises buying land, and all of them are local urban investors. This is equivalent to turning left hand to right hand. Then where does the money come from? Naturally, I borrowed money from a local bank.

If the house can’t be sold, it must become bad debt. Now the people also believe that you will die, so they began to withdraw money and leave early. In this way, the local small banks will undoubtedly die. Once the serial thunderstorm starts, it can’t stop. If you don’t turn around, everyone will be finished.