When will the Russian-Uzbekistan War end?

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Original: Gu Ziming This article is authorized to be reproduced on WeChat official account: Political Affairs Hall Plus2019

When the Russian-Uzbekistan war ends will affect the investment and behavior decisions of many people. This is the least sensitive. Let’s talk about it first. Of course, this is just a deduction.

From a political point of view, the armistice window of the Russian-Uzbekistan war is relatively certain.

In November 2024, the US presidential election will be held. In July, the Democrats and Republicans will vote for their respective presidential candidates.

Let’s analyze the parties.

For Trump, if the war lasts until July, then a phone call to Putin will end the war, and will become his campaign slogan, which can greatly win the votes of war-weary groups and greatly improve the victory rate.

Therefore, for President Biden, if he wants to be re-elected and defeat Trump, it would be better for him to end the war before July of 24 years and run for the Nobel Peace Prize.

For Putin, if the war lasted until the second quarter of the 24th year, he would have to insist on the American general election in November of the 24th year at all costs to coordinate Trump’s election, because once the king came to power, American aid would stop quickly, and Trump would force Zelensky to give up.

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However, for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party and the NATO group that have jointly driven Trump out of power in the past 20 years, Trump, who is preparing to be restored, is their primary enemy, and they will do it together at all costs.

Therefore, in 2023, the United States will find ways to hit Russia militarily.

At the same time, from a political point of view, the end of 2023 is the best time to end major wars.

Considering that if Trump can be killed, Putin, who has lost his most important ally, will also become a goose on the table. The chance to kill two birds with one stone will make the United States collude with other “powers” at all costs in 2023.

Similarly, from the perspective of economy, 2022-2023 is the interest rate increase cycle of the United States, and 2024 should enter the interest rate reduction cycle again in cooperation with the United States general election.

The interest rate increase cycle will cause various problems in the economy. To some extent, the United States needs the Russian-Uzbekistan war in the past two years.

On the one hand, the Biden government can dump all the problems caused by the interest rate increase to Russia and transfer the people’s dissatisfaction with the government. On the other hand, it can also use the common enemy to condense the people’s will, so as to overcome the difficulties of interest rate increase and inflation.

In addition, the war and the interest rate increase can also drive the capital of the world (Europe and East Asia) to flow back to the United States and realize the harvest of the US dollar tide.

However, after entering the 24-year interest rate reduction cycle, the Biden government will start to inject liquidity into the market again. At this time, the Russian-Uzbekistan battlefield is better to have ended, otherwise liquidity will push up the global energy price, but will provide Russia with a steady stream of military spending, bringing a lot of uncertainty.

Therefore, in the economic dimension, the United States hopes to force Putin to “admit” before the first quarter of 24 years, and is willing to exert strong military and political pressure on him in 23 years. (including coercing countries affected by the economic crisis and transferring the blame of the US global interest rate increase)

At the same time, China, which is ready to boost demand through monetary easing in the second half of the 23rd year, also hopes that after a tough war, the war will cool down quickly and start negotiations, so as to prevent the global bulk prices from being inflated by water and make itself the one who pays for the Russian-Uzbekistan war.

The best result is that through the war and peace in 2023, Russia and China will also form a relationship between resource countries and producers such as Canada and the United States.

Therefore, although the two superpowers of China and the United States will continue to fight and fight for the cake, based on the common interests and the response to the global economic crisis, in the Russian-Uzbekistan truce, the two superpowers will work together to plan to basically end the war this year from the perspective of Wu and Yue.

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