Original: Gu Ziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: political affairs hall plus2019
In the second year of Yuanyou in the Northern Song Dynasty, that is, 1087 A.D., the court set up a shipyard in Quanzhou.
Quanzhou is surrounded by the mountains of Fujian Province. The land is poor and scarce. It is not on the three major water systems of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River, nor is it far from the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal. It is a deep border area, and its development is far behind the core area of Chinese civilization.
However, after the Northern Song Dynasty drew a circle, everything changed.
A large number of overseas businessmen came to Quanzhou, which enabled Quanzhou people to seize the opportunity of entrepot trade and quickly set up a maritime trade network in East Asia with Quanzhou as the center. A hundred years later, this small fishing village developed into an international metropolis, and the tax paid was equivalent to 1 / 10 of the national income.
The interesting thing about history is that we can always find similarities.
Nine hundred years later, an old man also drew five circles in the eastern coastal areas of China, and established five cities under separate planning, namely, Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen and Shenzhen.
Of course, these five cities are not randomly selected. They are meant to promote trade and undertake production capacity when they open their doors to the world.
Dalian is determined to settle Japan, Qingdao is determined to settle South Korea, Xiamen is determined to settle Taiwan, Shenzhen is determined to settle Hong Kong, and Ningbo is determined to settle Bao Yugang, the world ship king.
In the process of China’s economic transformation from the Warsaw Pact group to the NATO group, these five cities also took the lead with China’s reform and opening up, undertaking the production capacity of five developed regions respectively, becoming the most shining cities at the beginning of reform and opening up.
Among them, Shenzhen, which has the worst foundation, has successfully moved Hong Kong’s electronics industry to become the world’s consumer electronics capital.
Personal efforts should also take into account the historical process. It is not how hard Shenzhen people work, but the international environment and domestic policies that give hard-working people the opportunity to change their destiny in Shenzhen.
When the Binhai New Area and other free trade zones are replicated nationwide, the simple opening-up can no longer bring dividends. On the contrary, cities like Ningde, which enjoy the preferential policies of the national industrial strategy, can repeat the sudden rise of Quanzhou next door.
Looking back on history is not to search for novelty, but to find the future direction through the path of history.
Recently, we talked a lot about the war between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in East Asia. It is a foregone conclusion that Russia has hit the head and blood in Europe. The encirclement net of the United States in Asia is getting tighter and tighter. Even the global depression is not far from us.
If we want to get out of the depression, it is necessary for the government to take the lead in investment and provide work as relief, and find some areas where we can enjoy the dividends for decades after a huge investment.
The last round of infrastructure dividends came from China’s opening its doors to western countries led by the United States. This round of semiconductor encirclement led by the United States also forces us to turn our investment to Russia.
Therefore, in the next few years, China’s government investment direction is likely to move to the North against the economic law, and some northern cities may benefit from it.
First of all, Russia, a two headed eagle, will inevitably turn its center to Asia after being hit by the head and blood in Europe. Over the past decade, the “great leap forward” infrastructure for transporting energy to Europe has become Putin’s Achilles heel. It must find new sellers for Russia’s natural gas and oil.
In the past three decades, due to Japan’s agitation and price bidding, the progress of the Sino Russian energy pipeline has been blocked. Now, with Japan’s joining in the US sanctions against Russia, which threatens Russia’s energy security, the Sino Russian oil and gas pipeline will be pushed forward at full speed, and even allowed to develop the Far East.
A huge amount of pipeline investment will start from Heilongjiang and run through northeast China. The petrochemical industry in Liaoning coastal area will also benefit from it, and energy and manufactured products will be transported to densely populated Southeast Asia.
Second, Russia, which has only the GDP of Guangdong Province, is on the verge of financial collapse in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. For the sake of dignity, Putin has nothing to sell, and his former Soviet industrial pearl can be sold.
In the past, Russia was always unwilling to sell the most advanced technology and only sold manufactured products. Now, due to war consumption, Russia’s own aircraft are not enough for front-line use, and the only big buyer does not need medium and low-end products, so Russia can only sell the most advanced technology and production lines.
In the future, Shenyang aircraft, Dalian warships and Xi’an missiles will be upgraded.
Finally, and most importantly, with the decline of Russia in the war, the countries in its original sphere of influence will become loose. In order to prevent the back garden of Central Asia from being invaded by the United States again, Russia must invite China to check and balance.
In the past, Russia has always refused China to invest in infrastructure in the five Central Asian countries. Now, in the face of a bad situation, Russia will have to allow China to build railways, communication networks, high-voltage power grids and energy networks, so that new China can reopen the ancient Silk Road.
At that time, extending from Xi’an to Urumqi, the western capital of the Tang Dynasty is also waving to us.
The changes in the international environment and domestic policies have made the northeast and northwest, which were neglected in the past, more and more important. The two secretaries invited from Shenzhen will also grasp China’s energy lifeline, lead the infrastructure construction of the East and West gates, and will tide over the Great Depression of the global economy in the future through large-scale work relief.
After talking so much, we will understand why we want to come to the northeast at this critical moment, and also understand where the first sword will be stabbed after China has been closed for many years.