Whether the United States will abolish tariffs on China is important but not important!

Spread the love

Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu

Since the Biden administration took office on January 20, 2021, it has been facing the problem of how to deal with the trump administration’s unilateral imposition of tariffs on Chinese products exported to the United States.

With domestic inflation in the United States rising to a 40 year high, there are two views within the Biden administration on how to deal with tariffs on China:

The first group, represented by finance minister Yellen and Commerce Minister ramondo, supported the abolition of some tariffs on China, mainly to partially reduce the inflationary pressure faced by the United States;

Another faction, represented by Dai Qi, the US trade representative and an official of Chinese descent, believes that the elimination of tariffs on China will have little effect on the United States to alleviate inflationary pressure, but will make her lose the chips to continue to “rip off” China.

The latest information is that the Biden administration may make a final decision on this matter in the near future.

For the Chinese people, it is necessary to have their own position and perspective on the issue of US tariffs on China.

First, in March 2018, the trump administration unilaterally launched a trade war against China, which is illegal and not unreasonable. Some of its measures have been ruled illegal by the world trade organization, which also authorized China to take some retaliatory measures.

The trump administration launched a trade war. First, it was to combat the Chinese economy and force the global industrial chain to move out of China, thereby serving the overall strategy of the United States to contain China; Second, in order to “rip off” China, China will increase imports from the United States, intellectual property rights, and expand market opening in exchange for more benefits from China.

For the Biden administration, the grand strategy of containing China has not changed.

No matter whether the Biden administration cancels some tariffs on China or not, we should not think that this is the manifestation of the United States’ finding of conscience and changing its mind to improve relations with China.

Not at all.

Any measure taken by the Biden administration on tariffs on China is first of all to safeguard the interests of the United States and serve the United States’ grand strategy of containing China.

Of course, the election politics of the two parties in the United States also determines that the Biden administration’s China policy should consider the impact on the mid-term election of the U.S. Congress on November 8.

On the issue of tariffs on China, the Biden administration’s calculation is clear and contradictory:

First, the Biden administration will never give up its strategy of containing China. The Biden Administration just feels that the trump administration is indiscriminate in fighting trade wars, which is not very effective in containing China, rather than that Trump’s strategy of containing China is wrong;

Second, the Biden administration should not only reduce some tariffs, reduce the inflationary pressure in the United States, and earn some political capital for the Democratic Party in the mid-term elections, but also continue to improve the trade war strategy, reduce the accusations of the Biden administration against “weakness and incompetence” in China by the Anti China forces in the United States, and more accurately and effectively combat China’s economy, especially its dominant position in high-tech industries and industrial chains.

I looked at the measures that the Biden administration may take on the tariff issue with China. To be honest, it is nothing new, and it can even be said that it is still full of “malice”.

According to the US politico website, the Biden administration’s plan is divided into three levels:

First, abolish tariffs on a very small number of consumer goods exported to the United States, such as bicycles. These products do not involve high-tech and strategic interests. Chinese products are also good and cheap. Trump’s tariff increase is completely “lifting a stone and hitting himself in the foot”. However, this part of the products accounts for only a small part of China’s 370billion US dollars of products exported to the United States affected by the trade war, and the amount is only about 10billion US dollars;

Second, the USTR will open a new channel for applying for tariff exemption of imported goods from China. Previously, the U.S. trade representative office led by Dai Qi has approved tariff exemption for 352 Chinese products exported to the United States. In the future, U.S. importers, manufacturers and retailers can apply for more exemptions;

Third, the Biden government’s very “vicious” move has come. The United States will carry out a targeted attack on China’s high-tech industries such as batteries and semiconductors. Under the so-called “301 clause”, it will increase export restrictions on these industries in China on the grounds of anti unfair government subsidies. Biden’s move is to find some high sounding reasons for himself while cracking down on China’s high-tech industry. In the follow-up, China and the United States must be reasonable and confident in economic and trade consultations, and do not be misled by them. The U.S. attack on China’s high-tech industry is to serve the overall strategy of the United States to contain China, which, like the fable “wolf and lamb”, has little to do with what China did or didn’t do. In any case, the United States can find reasons and excuses to crack down on China’s high-tech industry and slander China.

From the perspective of China, if the Biden administration partially cancels tariffs on China, it will be a good thing anyway.

However, there must be reasonable expectations.

I insist that this is only an adjustment in the US strategy to contain China, and it is definitely not a strategic shift in the US strategy to contain China.

I don’t even think that the United States is releasing goodwill for the follow-up high-level communication between China and the United States.

The United States does not talk about this. It only believes in dealing with China from the position of strength. According to American logic, either the United States beats China, or China beats China. The United States does not understand and accept the Oriental wisdom of acting in the opposite direction and mutual understanding and accommodation. The United States will not engage in a set of tactics against its opponents and potential enemies.

The biggest revelation of the Chinese people’s view of the US tariffs on China may be that “the United States is not as strong as some people think, and China is not as weak as some people think”.

In fact, in 2018, Chinese officials repeatedly said that China does not cause trouble, but China is not afraid of trouble. As for the trade war, China does not want to fight, but China is not afraid of fighting.

Looking back at the official statement at that time, we can see China’s determination and confidence from top to bottom.

At that time, people actually had very strong concerns. Many people even felt that the United States was going to deal with China in an all-round way. Where could China do? Some people are even spreading some form of “anxiety about subjugation”.

However, contrary to these people’s predictions, the United States has not defeated China after the trade war for more than four years, but has more and more problems of its own.

A big country like the United States will “die by itself” in the future.

In the game between China and the United States, the biggest problem for the United States has never been how well China develops, but whether the United States can develop well itself.

At present, interest groups are prevalent in the United States, party disputes are extremely fierce, and the legitimacy and institutional corruption of the elite are conspiring to harm the middle and lower classes of the United States. This is the biggest problem.

Reflected in American society, it shows that the military industrial complex promotes the United States to cause trouble everywhere in the world, to fight and to sell weapons; It shows that the American Medical and healthcare industry has used the world’s first cost, but it has not improved the average life expectancy of Americans, and has become a bottomless pit that consumes the wealth of American society; As the U.S. economy continues to shift from real to virtual, its original dominant advantage in basic science, core industries, key components and raw materials for the 21st century has begun to decline.

There may be two major effects of trade war on China:

First, let us see clearly the essence of the United States’ containment of China, which has generated a strong sense of crisis and the urgency of positive response. With rivals at such a level as the United States constantly tossing and tempering us, we dare not slack off, be careless, and be arrogant. This is a good thing for a big country like China from top to bottom. Countries, like people, “are born in misery and die in happiness”;

Second, let us strengthen our confidence in the struggle and game against the United States. Recently, I have repeatedly reminded you that “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process”, which is a very philosophical judgment.

Now the Biden administration has not given up its strategy of containing China, which is equivalent to fighting a trade war 2.0. The goal of the trade war at this stage is highly consistent with the trade war 1.0 during Trump’s period, which will continue to attack China’s economy, prevent China from further developing its strength, and finally achieve the goal of successfully containing China.

The Biden administration launched a trade war against China in phase 2.0. Economically, it is manifested in attacking the core competitiveness of China’s economy around the supply chain; In diplomacy, the performance is to use group fighting instead of fighting alone.

However, we should see clearly that “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process”. No matter what the United States does, it is impossible to bring China down, mess up or kill China.

The key to determining China’s future lies in our own efforts.

How to fight?

To say a thousand things and say a thousand things, we still need to do our own things in a down-to-earth manner, return to the essence of things, and respect the objective laws of everything.

At the diplomatic level, it is necessary to fight against the “collusion” of the United States with the “liaison” of the 21st century, so as to make more friends of China and less enemies of China.

At the economic level, it is necessary to increase basic research and theoretical research, work hard to solve the problem of neck sticking in a down-to-earth manner, and truly be independent, safe and controllable in terms of core technology, key raw materials and parts.

In terms of internal governance, we should not forget our original intention, keep our mission firmly in mind, always focus on the people and fight against all corruption, bureaucracy and formalism.

At the social level, we should adhere to the principle of the greatest common divisor, reduce unnecessary disputes, tears and confrontation, and make China better in a constructive way.

At the ideological level, we should fight against both the right and the left. Especially in the Internet age, we should not tolerate or cater to some extreme anti intellectual and extreme populist remarks, and we should clearly advocate the spirit of patriotism, rationality, science and pragmatism.

China is a big country, and its future is also due to itself, not to the decline of the United States.

From this point of view, it is still the old saying that we should be a little more ordinary in dealing with the U.S. policy towards China.

As for the US tariff on China, we welcome its cancellation; If the United States does not cancel, our days will pass.

“Let him be strong, and the breeze blows the hills. Let him be horizontal, and the moon shines on the river.”

and that.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *