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Yellowstone Park super volcano, located in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, is a latent and most destructive super volcano on earth. This super volcano erupts about every 600000 years, and it has been 640000 years since the last eruption.
This “super volcano” has the super energy to destroy the earth, and its airborne debris can bury half of the United States.
Mount Fuji is known as the “holy mountain” by the Japanese people and is the symbol of the Japanese nation. Mount Fuji is still an active volcano that may erupt at any time.
The crater at the top of Mt. Fuji has erupted 18 times in total. Mount Fuji volcano has been quiet since its great eruption in 1707. After calculating the amount of magma that may accumulate in the mountain body for more than 300 years, experts speculate that the destructive force of its re eruption is not less than 1000 atomic bombs.
In the past two years, the number of craters of Mount Fuji has soared to about 300 in a very short time, which is six times as many as the 44 in the previous year, and there is a rising trend. Now Mount Fuji is a dangerous volcano with 360 degree eruption without dead angle.
Today, no matter in Huangshi or Fuji, in addition to the impending “real volcano”, there is also a more frightening “economic volcano” on the verge of eruption.
Let’s have a chat today
Which of Mount Huangshi and Mount Fuji exploded first?
In addition to Yellowstone National Park, there is a little-known Town, Jackson Hole, on the edge of Wyoming. Some people may have heard the name of this town, but what many people may not know is that the fate of most economies in the world in the next five years or even longer may be decided in this town in these two or three days.
The annual Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting was held from August 25 to 27, US Eastern time, with the theme of “reassessing economic and policy constraints”. This is the first time that the conference has returned to offline since the covid-19 epidemic swept the world.
The Jackson Hole annual meeting is one of the world’s oldest central bank meetings, also known as the “Davos forum of central bank governors”. From August to September every year, central bank officials, Nobel laureates and top scholars from all over the world will gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to discuss the most pressing issues of global economic and monetary policy.
The core issue discussed this year is the two word “inflation”. From the United States to the United Kingdom to Australia, the disturbance caused by policy stimulus and the COVID-19 epidemic has pushed the price pressure to the highest point in at least decades. Central banks have to fight against inflation one after another at a time when economic growth is slowing down.
Therefore, the theme of this meeting must be: what can central banks do to combat the most serious inflation in developed countries in decades.
Before the meeting, the market generally expected that if the economy weakened in the next few years, the Federal Reserve might quickly reverse its course and cut interest rates. This perception drove a rebound in equities and other assets between July and mid August.
However, at the beginning of the meeting, Powell’s remarks on the 26th shattered this expectation. Powell said:
“Restoring price stability may require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for a period of time, and historical records have strongly warned against premature policy easing.”
He also said:
“In the 15 years before the successful Volcker anti inflation campaign in the early 1980s, many attempts to reduce inflation ended in failure. Curbing high inflation ultimately requires a long-term and very strict monetary policy. Our goal is to avoid this result by taking firm action now.”
This statement strongly implies that the Federal Reserve will never relax on the issue of raising interest rates in the near future, let alone reverse the path of reducing interest rates just because the economy is weak, and the duration exceeds market expectations. The market also responded quickly. The sharp decline in the United States in the past two days shows the reaction of the market.
On August 26, the three major futures indexes of US stocks fell
In fact, this statement is not unexpected to me. On the 23rd, I already explained:
Russia and Ukraine have basically completed the task of driving out European capital, driving out Asia Pacific capital through WW, and returning to the United States to buy high-priced assets. At this time, the U.S. stock market has reached the final closing stage. It is necessary to break the foam of the U.S. stock market through a more hawkish approach and bury all the funds received. Last week was probably the last window to escape.
However, just like the shameless remarks made by the spokesman of the US State Department on the issue of Afghanistan on August 15:
Over the past two decades, the staff of the State Department have bravely and enthusiastically performed their duties to help the Afghan people create a better future.
The speech made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on August 26 is also very consistent with the “shameless” style of the United States. In his speech, Powell said:
Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and the cornerstone of the economy. Without price stability, we will not be able to achieve a strong labor market for all in the long term. Eventually, the burden of high inflation will fall on the most unsustainable groups
Powell seems to have forgotten who released the US dollars that flooded the global market in the past, who disrupted the world economic order, and whose habitual trick was to use the tide of the US dollar to reap the world’s prices after printing money without a bottom line in the past.
Today, Powell said that “the burden of inflation will not fall on the most unbearable groups”. Just as the US State Department said, “over the past 20 years, the staff of the State Department have bravely and enthusiastically performed their duties to help the Afghan people create a better future”, it is shameless and ridiculous
However, there seems to be no better way for me than to scold Powell for his remarks that he has no bottom line. After all, the United States recognizes its shameless means, and is not ashamed of it, but proud of it. Former US Treasury Secretary Connery once said:
“Our dollars, your troubles.”
Today, the Biden administration has been pondering how to destroy Global trade and provoke war to cause trouble to the world by relying on biological warfare, trade war and public opinion war, and then cooperate with the tide of raising interest rates to harvest the world.
Yes, the dollar has become a global problem. However, it seems that the biggest trouble is not China, but America’s allies Europe and Japan.
Let’s look at Europe first. On August 20, macron, at a ceremony in an activity, called on the French to accept the price of freedom. When presiding over the first cabinet meeting after the summer vacation on August 24, macron reminded again that France’s life would be more difficult in the coming months, but this was “the price and sacrifice for freedom”. He told the French people: this means that the good days of abundant resources and commodities may be over, and the world is facing the end of “some kind of carefree”.
Compared with Europe, Japan seems to be in a more difficult situation. In a twinkling of an eye, it has been nearly 50 days since Abe left. What has happened in Japan in less than two months?
Since July 8, the Japanese epidemic has reached a new level.
From 20000 confirmed cases in Japan on July 8 to 250000 confirmed cases in Japan on August 28 today, the epidemic situation in Japan is ten times more serious. The heads of 14 hospitals in Kyoto, Japan, recently issued a joint statement (blood color warning) with a bright red background, warning that the seventh wave of COVID-19 epidemic that Japan is currently experiencing has reached a “catastrophic level”
On August 24, Japan added 343 new covid-19 deaths in a single day, setting a new record since covid-19 (including before there was no vaccine at the beginning).
However, Japanese experts believe that at present, Japan has not reached the peak of infection, and death cases may continue to increase.
The hospital is in emergency, and the medical staff is sick. Many pregnant women are forced to give birth at home, and there are hundreds of dialysis patients who cannot get medical treatment in one city alone.
From July 8, it seems that there is a rising trend of militarism in Japan.
On July 12, Abe’s funeral was held at zengshang temple in Tokyo. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attended the funeral. Outsiders thought it was a simple funeral farewell ceremony, but a special figure, Lai Qingde, deputy leader of pseudo Taiwan Province, appeared at Abe’s funeral.
Around August 15, members of the Japanese cabinet and some members of the diet visited the Yasukuni Shrine. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, through his own office and in the name of president of the Liberal Democratic Party, paid a private fee to the Yasukuni shrine to offer “jade strings”
On August 22, Yomiuri Shimbun, an influential Japanese media, reported that the Japanese government was considering deploying more than 1000 long-range cruise missiles, which could “cover North Korea and China’s coastal areas”. It is said that this batch of ballistic missiles will be mainly deployed in the southwest islands to prevent “Taiwan’s incident” and enhance “counterattack capability”
In fact, the two issues of “epidemic situation” and “war” should be combined with another larger issue, that is, Japan’s national debt (see “stretching or sinking”).
In the past few years, Japan’s economy has always relied on the central bank to purchase bonds to survive, and Japan’s national debt, which is already hanging over Japan, may erupt at any time.
By the end of June, the long-term Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan had reached a record 528.23 trillion yen, accounting for about 50% of the total market value of long-term Japanese government bonds. And Wall Street capital has started to make a large-scale short of Japanese government bonds since June. If we want to keep the Treasury bond market from collapsing, we can not raise interest rates.
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in July:
Whether former Prime Minister Abe dies or not, he will not change his policy stance aimed at achieving stable and sustainable inflation. At present, he has not considered raising interest rates at all.
However, without raising interest rates, we will face the pressure of inflation, as well as the risk of currency depreciation and foreign exchange reserve.
If you are an investor holding Japanese yen or treasury bonds, when you see Japan, it is a country with “heavy losses from the epidemic” + “increased war risk”+
The trend of “depreciation without interest rate increase” of the Japanese yen has further expanded. What will you do?
Just these two days, at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Bank of Japan President Haruhiko Kuroda also attended.
At this time, I did not know that in the face of Powell’s irresponsible “hawkish remarks” about the world economy, the “inflationary pressure” in Japan, the “political pressure” at home and abroad, and even the
Possible “personal safety”
… without Abe’s support, can Haruhiko Kuroda still persist for the sake of Japan not being reaped.
At this time, I don’t know whether the “Huangshi” volcano hanging over the world economy or the “Fuji” volcano hanging over the Japanese economy will explode first!
To be happy, we must strive. China has a vast territory and a large population. If we want to develop and revitalize, the most important thing is to base ourselves on the national conditions and follow our own path. Practice has shown that the new road of Chinese style modernization is getting wider and wider, which will better develop itself and benefit the world.