White Russia has a big move!

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Author: falsetto Source: falsetto (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint

In addition to the two sides involved in the war, another sensitive country is Belarus.

As the three brotherly countries of the East Slavic Lady, the first Russia went to the second Ukraine to fight. Although the second Ukraine was not as powerful as Russia, it also received assistance from a group of helpers (NATO). In this case, it is difficult for the third white Russia to stay out of the matter.

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The sensitivity of Belarus mainly includes two points:

One sensitive point is that Belarus may join the war.

Of all the countries split out of the Soviet Union, almost only Belarus is firmly pro-Russia at this stage, and the Russia-Belarus integration alliance has brought the two countries established by the East Slavic countries closer and closer.

At the beginning of the war, White Russia was regarded as Russia’s right arm, and it has been rumored that White Russia might join the war.

The second sensitive point is that Belarus may lead to an all-out war.

White Russia is located in the hinterland of Eastern Europe and is closely connected with NATO.

If Belarus joins the war, Poland and Lithuania, which have joined NATO, are likely to come directly to help Ukraine deal with Belarus. In this case, it is likely to evolve into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, and then into a world war.

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In view of the geographical sensitivity of Belarus, at the beginning of the war, in order to prevent the Russian army from attacking Kiev again from the direction of Belarus, the Ukrainian army first deployed a large number of minefields on the border between Belarus and Ukraine, and then destroyed the bridge between Belarus and Ukraine.

In order to show its attitude, Poland closed the border port with Belarus. According to the notice of the Ministry of Interior and Administration of Poland, from the 21st, the goods vehicles of Belarus are prohibited from entering through the port of Kukuriki-Kozwovic in Poland.

Lukashenko cursed Poland for being an idiot. In a sense, the attitude of Belarus is the weather vane on the battlefield.

At that time, when Russia was dominant in the battlefield, White Russia would also help Russia to wave its fist at Ukraine. Lukashenko had suggested Ukraine agree to Putin’s conditions.

When the two sides fell into a tug-of-war, the White Russia said that it would not be involved in the war between its brothers and neighbors, and also said that it would persuade Russia and Ukraine to negotiate peace.

Now with the increasing assistance from the West to Ukraine, Belarus has made preparations for war

And make peace.

Let’s look at the preparations first.

On February 16, Lukashenko said that if Belarus’s national security was threatened, he would start from the territory of Belarus and fight with Russia. Lukashenko has not said such harsh words for some time.

Lukashenko once again emphasized the joint fight with Russia at this time, saying that after the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the uncertainty faced by Belarus has increased significantly. Once the war between Russia and Ukraine overflows, White Russia will bear the brunt.

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White Russia is not a war of words, and the military also has practical actions. On February 26, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus released a message that, under the framework of combat readiness operations, Belarus had mobilized one of its missile forces to the scheduled location.

This should be a very clear signal to prepare for war. Combined with the closure of the border port between Poland and Belarus, the war situation in the East Ukraine area should be worse than that reported in the news.

Then look at the action of making peace.

On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Ukrainian War, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China issued the document “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis”, which comprehensively and systematically explained China’s basic positions and propositions, including 12 aspects, such as respecting the sovereignty of all countries, abandoning the Cold War mentality, cease-fire and ending the war, and initiating peace talks.

China’s peace plan has received positive feedback from many countries, including Ukraine. Lukashenko emphasized that “if this signal of China (the position on the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict) is not heard by the information receiver, it will have serious consequences.”

Lukashenko is not joking. The war continues and the consequences are really serious.

After the outbreak of the war, Belarus has made several efforts to promote peace talks between the two sides. Once, the representatives of Russia and Ukraine had peace talks in Minsk. Both sides said their own words and parted unhappily. This proves that Belarus is unable to promote peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Türkiye also tried to promote the Russia Ukraine negotiations, which ended in failure.

Because with the escalation of the war, few countries are qualified to promote the Russian-Uzbekistan peace talks. Because although the world is nominally equal, the mediation of war and conflict needs to be done by powerful countries. China happened to be one of the few countries with the strength to mediate the Russian-Uzbekistan war. If China’s comprehensive strength cannot mediate the Russia Ukraine war, then countries with strength like Belarus and Türkiye cannot do so.

So Lukashenko very much agreed with China’s mediation plan and said that if China’s mediation failed, the consequences would be very serious. This consequence may include the spillover of war, which will affect Poland and Belarus.

Lukashenko is about to visit China. One of the key points of his trip should be to try to cool the war with China (Belarus can’t do it by itself) and avoid war spillovers. You should know that now Belarus has been regarded by the West as Russia’s small partner and has been severely punished. To get out of the dilemma, Belarus needs to seek new business opportunities in the East and try to cool the war. These two points cannot be separated from China’s help.

From the perspective of Belarus itself, the recent preparations for war and peace making are major actions, because these actions show that the situation facing Belarus is gradually losing its control.

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