Original: Zhanhao Source: official account: Zhanhao WeChat ID: zhanhao668
According to media reports, on June 6, the dam of Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant located at the lower reaches of Dnieper in Kherson region exploded and collapsed, and the lower reaches of Dnieper were hit by floods. The Kakhovka Dam is about 30 meters high and 3.2 kilometers long. It is located 5 kilometers east of Nova Kakhovka City. The reservoir volume is 18 cubic kilometers. It was built by the Soviet Union in 1956. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the hydropower station has been under the control of Russia, and Kakhovka City, 5 kilometers west of the hydropower station, is also under the control of Russia.
For the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Ukrainian army had shelled the dam when it tried to recapture Kherson in October 2022, while Zerensky claimed that the Russian side had put explosives inside the dam to blow up the Kakhovka Dam.
The Kakhovka Dam is a strategic infrastructure, which is not only used to regulate the water flow of the Dnieper and ensure the power supply of Kherson Oblast State, but also includes the water supply of the northern Crimea Peninsula and southern Ukraine. In addition, it also supplies water to the Zaboro nuclear power plant to help cool the nuclear power plant.
So, who would bomb such an important strategic facility?
Russia and Ukraine are blaming each other for the bombing of the Kakhovka Dam. The Ukrainian side accuses Russia of blowing up the dam, and the commander of southern Ukraine’s operations stated on social media on the morning of the 6th that the Russian army blew up the dam in the early hours of the same day. The Russian side accused Ukraine of blowing up the dam.
Leontiev, the head of the administrative authority of Nova Kakhovka City in Kherson Oblast appointed by the Russian side, said in the morning of the 6th that at about 2:00 am that day, Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was repeatedly shelled by the Ukrainian side, and the sluice gate was damaged, resulting in the uncontrolled discharge of reservoir water, and about 300 houses in 88 residential areas in the downstream area were threatened by the flood. Leontiev stated that the incident was an extremely serious terrorist attack. The scale of the damage to the hydropower station is enormous, and the restoration work will be close to reconstruction. Later in an interview with a television station, he stated that the hydroelectric power station suffered a dam failure after the attack, and the entire city of Novokhovka has been submerged.
So, who is the culprit? In fact, this matter is not complicated. We only need to look at who is more favorable and who is more unfavorable for this event to draw a basic conclusion.
After the Kakhovka dam breaks, three serious consequences will be brought directly:
1? Crimea will face water supply difficulties
Since the Soviet Union completed the construction of the North Crimean Canal in December 1975, 85% of the freshwater demand of the Crimea Peninsula has been supplied by the canal. The construction of the canal is to solve the problem of freshwater supply in Crimea. However, after 2014, Crimea joined Russia through a referendum, and then the Government of Ukraine government built a dam on the North Crimean Canal to stop the supply of fresh water to Crimea. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, with Russia taking control of the eastern region of Ukraine, Russia blew up the dam on the North Crimean Canal, and the canal again supplied fresh water to Crimea, which solved the problem of fresh water that had puzzled Crimea for eight years.
Now, the Kakhovka Dam has been bombed, and the water supply capacity of Dnieper to North Crimean Canal will be greatly reduced, which will directly threaten the water supply problem of Crimea Peninsula.
2? Zapolo hot nuclear power plant may face risks in the future
Nuclear power plants all need a lot of cooling water, otherwise the emergency Diesel generator will fail, and it is almost impossible to repair the dam when it is exploded, or it will take years or even longer to repair it. In this situation, although all parties have stated that the safety of the nuclear power plant is not directly at risk at this stage, the so-called alternative water can only ensure a few months of cooling use. If there is a long-term water shortage in the future, it will inevitably lead to the closure of the nuclear power plant. The nuclear power plant is now controlled by Russia, and in the future, it will also be one of the most important energy sources for Russia to rebuild eastern Ukraine. Russia clearly does not want it to face risks.
3? Russia’s westward attack will be blocked
After the collapse of this dam, the westward attack route of southern Russia will be blocked. For example, if Russia wants to win Odesa again, it will encounter difficulties, because heavy equipment will be stopped by the dam breaking Dnieper.
To sum up, the bombing of the Kakhovka Dam is a major loss for Russia, especially for the water supply problem in Crimea, which will be very troublesome. In addition, once there is a long-term shortage of water, Russia will encounter difficulties in deploying heavy troops here. So, although many American and Ukrainian fans have pointed the perpetrators of the dam bombing at Russia, those with a little bit of rational thinking can see that this is harmful to Russia without any benefit. Why should Russia do such a thing?
Some people say that the Russian army cannot withstand the Ukrainian counterattack, and Putin is preparing to withdraw from Crimea and eastern Ukraine. In order to delay the Ukrainian army’s attack, he was forced to blow up the dam. But these words may not even be believed by them when they say them themselves. In the past period, the Ukrainian army has only defeated Wagner’s private military group, while Putin has not invested more than 300000 of his newly recruited personnel. Russia has almost 400000 troops that have not been put into use, and the Ukrainian army’s Ammunition dump has been bombed by Russia. Now the Ukrainian army is very short of troops. In this case, the Ukrainian army has taken “magic medicine”, which can make the Russian army lose its armor? Still scared Putin to blow up the dam to stop the Ukrainian army? This type of bridge segment simply cannot exist.
So, is it good for Ukraine to blow up the Kakhovka Dam?
Yes, there are benefits. In Zhanhao’s view, Ukraine can gain at least three major benefits by blowing up dams:
1? The big counterattack that was previously boasted about can no longer be fulfilled
In the past few months, President Zelensky of President of Ukraine has been boasting that the Ukrainian army wants to launch a major counteroffensive. However, on the one hand, the Ukrainian army has consumed too much before, and on the other hand, it has consumed too much ammunition. In fact, both the strength and ammunition of the Ukrainian army are not enough to support its major counteroffensive. On this point, we only need to look at the victory or defeat of the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut and the private military group of Wagner with more than 20000 people. In the Bakhmut battlefield, the Russian army did not participate much later, and almost all of them were handed over to the “Wagner” private military group. The reason why Putin did so was to control the pace of the war, but “Wagner” still defeated the Ukrainian army and captured Bakhmut.
Just ask, what kind of counter attack can the Ukrainian army, which can’t even defend Bakhmut, make against 400000 Russian troops? However, for Zelensky, if this bull blows, his reputation in the West will be greatly affected in the future. Now, the Kakhovka Dam has been bombed, and the big counter attack has turned into a big water attack, so Zerensky’s counter attack can not be fulfilled completely.
2? Blowing up a dam would make the Russian army more embarrassed, and Ukraine has won time to fight for Western weapons
In the past period of time, Russia’s hypersonic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles have made great achievements in striking Ukraine, especially blowing up some Ammunition dump of Western aid to the Ukrainian army, which makes it more difficult for the Ukrainian army, which is already short of weapons, to have enough weapons to launch a large-scale counter attack. However, Zelensky’s intention to counterattack is still there, so he is waiting for Western aid planes, in which case he needs time. Now, after blowing up the Kakhovka Dam, time has been gained.
3? Ukraine can seize the opportunity to achieve local tactical goals
For Zelensky, he urgently needs some local victories to tell stories to the United States and the West, in order to further deceive the West into donating more high-end weapons. However, the current strength of the Ukrainian army has suffered greatly, making it increasingly difficult to achieve local victories.
However, it is possible for Zerensky to find an opportunity by blowing up the Kakhovka Dam. Because, in the face of the big flood, the Russian army may have to retreat, and the Ukrainian army can use the flood dam to force across the Dnieper, and then establish military strongholds in places where Russia’s defense is weak on the east bank of the Dnieper. Once such a success is achieved, Zelensky can boast of the achievements of the counter offensive, and then he can continue to ask the United States and the West to increase Military aid.
Therefore, we will find that the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam is a negative factor for Russia, and in turn, it is a benefit for the Zerensky government of Ukraine. So, who is the murderer who blew up the Kakhovka Dam? Isn’t it clear at a glance?